Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans • Hacker News Board

Re: Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans

#341

Post by kmonsen » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 1:25 AM UTC

adventured wrote: post #325

draw_down wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strange statement to make about the iPad regardless. The iPad is an incredible success; the only way it doesn't seem like one is in comparison to the iPhone.

Easily one of the most successful consumer products in history. Nearly half a billion iPads have been sold since 2010, with around $300 billion in sales in those ten years. In electronics & tech, the good scale comparisons are few, things like the iPhone, Mac, Windows, Nintendo, PlayStation, Xbox. To put that $300b into better context, that's equivalent to the total sales of Windows throughout its entire 30 year hist…

For me what makes the iPad such a hit is that it can’t be copied apparently. There are phones that are in some ways more successful than iPhone but for tablets there is more or less just the iPad.

Re: Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans

#342

Post by npunt » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 1:27 AM UTC

kmonsen wrote: post #324

npunt wrote: post #261

Magic Leap made one of the classic mistakes that other before-their-time products make: they tried to create a general purpose product because they didn't have a killer app that could focus their efforts. When you're building a product without a focused use case, you are pulled in a ton of different directions. In AR, this means focusing on fidelity , embodied in high resolution, wide field of view visuals, powerful…

I think they just never had a great product. Look at VR, even though the products are becoming really good, it is not hitting mainstream and this is even more niche. The startup cost is enormous, it is really hard to create good content and there is close to zero revenue since there are few users. And the users that does exist is the techie crowd that doesn't like to pay for anything.

The question I'm asking is why they don't have a great product. Why is it bulky, weird looking, expensive, etc? Why does their marketing fail to explain the product's value?

There are tons of ways to implement AR. They chose 'general AR', the kind of thing you see on Westworld or Black Mirror. That was a bad choice, because the tech isn't there and won't be for a long time, and it only follows that the implementation was going to be bad.

There are alternative ways to find a good v1 for AR. Take a look at this tweet storm for more of my thoughts on what that could be: https://twitter.com/nickpunt/status/1253087195159654400

As far as VR goes, it's further along. Quest is a quality stand-alone product, but VR is young and content is still lacking. Its also completely sold out, even before coronavirus. They aren't producing them in Sony/MS console numbers but its not a failure, just a stepping stone to success. Unlike the Rift or Vive, with cords hanging out of them and an appeal only to hardcore gamers, Quest is definitely on the path to mainstream, or mainstream-adjacent success.

Re: Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans

#343

Post by egd » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 1:31 AM UTC

npunt wrote: post #261

Magic Leap made one of the classic mistakes that other before-their-time products make: they tried to create a general purpose product because they didn't have a killer app that could focus their efforts. When you're building a product without a focused use case, you are pulled in a ton of different directions. In AR, this means focusing on fidelity , embodied in high resolution, wide field of view visuals, powerful…

The basic problem is that without high fidelity & a wide FOV, there's nothing that sets MagicLeap apart from any of the other companies that have been able to create AR headsets for the last ~decade.

AR right now is stuck because the display technologies aren't up to the task. The "Waveguide" approach has always fallen short - nobody's ever been able to make the viewing angle wide enough to be worthwhile, and the "passthrough" approach isn't really viable for walking down the street.

This is why I'm skeptical about Apple's AR moves - unless they've either got a totally new display technology or they've managed to do something incredibly clever with the waveguide approach, I just don't see consumer goggles working.

The only people I've seen doing something unique in this space is Tilt Five: https://www.tiltfive.com/ - they've basically done what you're suggesting: constrain the use case until you can actually build something for it.

Re: Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans

#344

Post by egd » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 1:33 AM UTC

daeken wrote: post #105

tootie wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their tech is actually pretty decent. It's as good as anything else on the market. Their biggest mistake has been setting sky high expectations and just not coming close. If you got a cold demo of Magic Leap you'd probably be blown away. If you watch their simulated demo from however many years ago, then try on the headset you'll be sorely disappointed.

> It's as good as anything else on the market. I've owned and extensively tested nearly every AR device that's been on the market in the last 10 years. I can conclusively say: the Magic Leap is garbage for anything more than short-term entertainment. Between the extremely dim visuals, the horrible rainbow effects on every bit of text you display, and the awful resolution, it's not just bad for anything other than gam…

Have any of them stood out to you? Is there anything you'd consider a reasonable consumer device right now?

Re: Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans

#345

Post by baldfat » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 1:42 AM UTC

npunt wrote: post #261

Magic Leap made one of the classic mistakes that other before-their-time products make: they tried to create a general purpose product because they didn't have a killer app that could focus their efforts. When you're building a product without a focused use case, you are pulled in a ton of different directions. In AR, this means focusing on fidelity , embodied in high resolution, wide field of view visuals, powerful…

I want augmented reality for communication and for board gaming please. Someone focus on having cool Augment Reality chat where I can walk with a friend or family member and see them right next to me.

I also would like to play board games with my friends who no longer live close. Also if I was playing a game and they could be virtually sitting next to me so that we could communicate better that would also be great.

Re: Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans

#346

Post by abacadaba » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 1:47 AM UTC

npunt wrote: post #342

kmonsen wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they just never had a great product. Look at VR, even though the products are becoming really good, it is not hitting mainstream and this is even more niche. The startup cost is enormous, it is really hard to create good content and there is close to zero revenue since there are few users. And the users that does exist is the techie crowd that doesn't like to pay for anything.

The question I'm asking is why they don't have a great product. Why is it bulky, weird looking, expensive, etc? Why does their marketing fail to explain the product's value? There are tons of ways to implement AR. They chose 'general AR', the kind of thing you see on Westworld or Black Mirror. That was a bad choice, because the tech isn't there and won't be for a long time, and it only follows that the implementation…

I've only used the quest for a short demo, but I have a hard time seeing what full AR gets you that a quest in camera augmented setup mode can't.

What's the point of crappy half dim see-through display when you can just pipe the camera output to a normal VR screen?

Re: Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans

#347

Post by chaostheory » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 1:48 AM UTC

kmonsen wrote: post #324

npunt wrote: post #261

Magic Leap made one of the classic mistakes that other before-their-time products make: they tried to create a general purpose product because they didn't have a killer app that could focus their efforts. When you're building a product without a focused use case, you are pulled in a ton of different directions. In AR, this means focusing on fidelity , embodied in high resolution, wide field of view visuals, powerful…

I think they just never had a great product. Look at VR, even though the products are becoming really good, it is not hitting mainstream and this is even more niche. The startup cost is enormous, it is really hard to create good content and there is close to zero revenue since there are few users. And the users that does exist is the techie crowd that doesn't like to pay for anything.

VR is becoming mainstream with Covid19 lockdowns. Oculus Quest keeps going out of stock and there's a long waiting list for Valve's Index.

Re: Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans

#348

Post by hunta2097 » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 1:57 AM UTC

baldfat wrote: post #345

npunt wrote: post #261

Magic Leap made one of the classic mistakes that other before-their-time products make: they tried to create a general purpose product because they didn't have a killer app that could focus their efforts. When you're building a product without a focused use case, you are pulled in a ton of different directions. In AR, this means focusing on fidelity , embodied in high resolution, wide field of view visuals, powerful…

I want augmented reality for communication and for board gaming please. Someone focus on having cool Augment Reality chat where I can walk with a friend or family member and see them right next to me. I also would like to play board games with my friends who no longer live close. Also if I was playing a game and they could be virtually sitting next to me so that we could communicate better that would also be great.

Have you seen the Tilt Five?

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/tiltfive/holographic-ta...

Re: Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans

#349

Post by lmeyerov » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 1:58 AM UTC

npunt wrote: post #342

kmonsen wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they just never had a great product. Look at VR, even though the products are becoming really good, it is not hitting mainstream and this is even more niche. The startup cost is enormous, it is really hard to create good content and there is close to zero revenue since there are few users. And the users that does exist is the techie crowd that doesn't like to pay for anything.

The question I'm asking is why they don't have a great product. Why is it bulky, weird looking, expensive, etc? Why does their marketing fail to explain the product's value? There are tons of ways to implement AR. They chose 'general AR', the kind of thing you see on Westworld or Black Mirror. That was a bad choice, because the tech isn't there and won't be for a long time, and it only follows that the implementation…

Platform != product

If there was even 1 amazing game, they'd be ok. Think halo->xbox, sonic->sega, mario->nintendo+gameboy, ... .

But apparently not. Nothing people want to buy.

Re: Magic Leap reportedly slashes jobs and steps away from consumer plans

#350

Post by jimmySixDOF » Thu, Apr 23, 2020, 2:10 AM UTC

npunt wrote: post #261

Magic Leap made one of the classic mistakes that other before-their-time products make: they tried to create a general purpose product because they didn't have a killer app that could focus their efforts. When you're building a product without a focused use case, you are pulled in a ton of different directions. In AR, this means focusing on fidelity , embodied in high resolution, wide field of view visuals, powerful…

I agree with you the problem was loss of focus related but not in the way you frame it. MLeap's original focus was to deliver a transformative visual experience through Dynamic Light Field Display. This worked, was presented to investors, and made smart people's jaws drop. It took a room of equipment to deliver, but they were funded at risk by smart people to develop this experience in a consumer format.

Fast Forward so many years and what got delivered in ML1 ? A consumer format device not capable of delivering on that original vision experience.

Your comment suggests MLeap should have early on baked in expectations for a substandard visual experience in a first mass market consumer product. I disagree. Instead, they should have planned on miniaturization problems and baked in expectations for first delivery of a ground breaking visual experience product not available in a mass market consumer device footprint or price point.

MLeap's killer app should have been their visual experience. That was the day one focus and it got lost along the way, as you say 'pulled in a ton of different directions'.

I tell people I would have bought a $10,000 Motorcycle helmet with a backpack from MLeap if that was able to produce just a good part of original Dynamic Light Field AR experience. Is that a fast moving mass market consumer device ? No, but obviously the ML1 was not either.

I am reminded of Theranos and their maniacal insistence on using 'one drop of blood' and how it defined the format of every component, when it is possible they would have succeeded with just a little more flexibility on that design principle.

As with Theranos setting back the IoT medical space, I fear that the MLeap experience will set back spatial computing in the short to mid term, however I think both these fields are at very early stages of transforming our living environments over the long term.