Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? • Hacker News Board

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#11

Post by m463 » Wed, Apr 22, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

jiveturkey wrote: post #7

NB: the title is misleading. this is not about pure ideas, this is about economic growth, which to be measurable (significant) needs to be exponential. no doubt, there are more ideas now than ever. technology is a great enabler. but finding economically impactful ideas ... that does seem to be getting harder, from my armchair view.

I read a book recently that said with computers and search something has changed in the recent few years.

Answers used to be expensive, but now it is pretty much free to get answers.

It may be that questions will become more valuable than answers.

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#12

Post by stcredzero » Wed, Apr 22, 2020, 6:02 PM UTC

Gollapalli wrote: post #6

It may just be a change in the way that we work. This paper may just as well be titled "Are institutions getting less effective?" or "Are research institutions getting less effective?". Hell, it might even be that our smartest people aren't researching and the amount of brainpower we throw at research problems has actually decreased even though the effort/money we throw at research problems has increased.

It may just be a change in the way that we work. This paper may just as well be titled "Are institutions getting less effective?" or "Are research institutions getting less effective?".

Lots of progress might be stymied by entrenched interests using laws, regulations, or some form of corporate bureaucracy/cronyism as a "moat" to ward off competition.

The short shrift paid to EVs by auto makers and car dealers before Tesla came along is one example. (Yes, I know that batteries also had to improve.) Intel's practices before AMD stepped up its game recently can be seen as another example. Then there's SpaceX.

Hell, it might even be that our smartest people aren't researching and the amount of brainpower we throw at research problems has actually decreased

Is research now a "2nd tier" career? Are you thinking this is based on economic competition from industry?

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#13

Post by canadianwriter » Wed, Apr 22, 2020, 6:02 PM UTC

arjunbazinga wrote: post #5

Maybe, it's getting hard to find ideas due to all these paywalls.

You're being clever.... except this shows you didn't both to even read the abstract.

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#14

Post by md_ » Wed, Apr 22, 2020, 6:06 PM UTC

xiphias2 wrote: post #8

Good ideas are easy to find in any niche, but the low central bank interest rates make price discovery extremely hard, so most of the time it's just not worth to implement those ideas, as people are not compensated well enough for executing on those ideas. I believe that right now any project that gets people closer to hard money is a good direction.

Forgive me, but I don't understand your point. Is it that it's so easy to borrow money that there's no need to sift good ideas from bad? And if so, that seems like it would result in more bad ideas being funded, not fewer good ideas.

Yet the paper claims to present evidence to the contrary (sort of; they're talking about innovation gains, not "ideas")--that the cost of gains is increasing. I don't see how that would arise from low interest rates?

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#15

Post by throwaway1777 » Wed, Apr 22, 2020, 6:08 PM UTC

symplee wrote: post #10

The pigeonhole principle [0] is also becoming more of a factor due to the sheer volume of production. Especially in domains with a limited branching factor. For example, in music, if you only have 12 tones in an octave to play with, along with variable length and spacing, you start to run out of "good" melodies under 20 notes after 400 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigeonhole_principle

Sure, but that’s not accounting for rhythm, different instruments, etc.

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#16

Post by mettamage » Wed, Apr 22, 2020, 6:09 PM UTC

symplee wrote: post #10

The pigeonhole principle [0] is also becoming more of a factor due to the sheer volume of production. Especially in domains with a limited branching factor. For example, in music, if you only have 12 tones in an octave to play with, along with variable length and spacing, you start to run out of "good" melodies under 20 notes after 400 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigeonhole_principle

Counter example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99Op1TaXmCw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqW-Hfk0FN0 (an electro swing remix)

Timbre and genre are very important things. The remix doesn't need to be as good as the original since it's way better suited to be mixed in an electro swing DJ set. The different context creates an entirely new niche in which the original has no place.

Disclaimer: I googled for something random and sifted a bit through the results - not a fan of dubstep remixes, so I chose electro swing instead :)

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#17

Post by xiphias2 » Wed, Apr 22, 2020, 6:11 PM UTC

md_ wrote: post #14

xiphias2 wrote: post #8

Good ideas are easy to find in any niche, but the low central bank interest rates make price discovery extremely hard, so most of the time it's just not worth to implement those ideas, as people are not compensated well enough for executing on those ideas. I believe that right now any project that gets people closer to hard money is a good direction.

Forgive me, but I don't understand your point. Is it that it's so easy to borrow money that there's no need to sift good ideas from bad? And if so, that seems like it would result in more bad ideas being funded, not fewer good ideas. Yet the paper claims to present evidence to the contrary (sort of; they're talking about innovation gains, not "ideas")--that the cost of gains is increasing. I don't see how that would…

Money (in the form of buying power) can't be created from nothing, so whenever a bad idea/execution is funded, it takes away buying power from companies that have better execution, but less access to cheap loans.

As an example I personally know a CEO who had a great idea, great exececution, but a new competitor startup was funded with millions of dollars of cash that threatened to sue him in the US. He didn't have money for lawyers, so he became in a bad position very fast, even if he was quite certain that the competitor didn't have any case against him.

Another example is cheap loans driving up ad prices and rent in SF, which I have seen often talked about here.

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#18

Post by symplee » Wed, Apr 22, 2020, 6:12 PM UTC

throwaway1777 wrote: post #15

symplee wrote: post #10

The pigeonhole principle [0] is also becoming more of a factor due to the sheer volume of production. Especially in domains with a limited branching factor. For example, in music, if you only have 12 tones in an octave to play with, along with variable length and spacing, you start to run out of "good" melodies under 20 notes after 400 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigeonhole_principle

Sure, but that’s not accounting for rhythm, different instruments, etc.

Isn't this just increasing the branching factor? How hard will it be to find new melodies a million years from now? Easier than today, the same, or harder?

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#19

Post by alexgvozden » Wed, Apr 22, 2020, 6:15 PM UTC

options for us as humans are growing, today you can travel by plane, travel to space, buy something around the world, learn whatever you want online...

hyperproductivity is here, but both market and options are increasing too so not sure what math could be used realistically but for sure we can't foresee in near future death of ideas

Re: Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

#20

Post by mettamage » Wed, Apr 22, 2020, 6:16 PM UTC

symplee wrote: post #18

throwaway1777 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but that’s not accounting for rhythm, different instruments, etc.

Isn't this just increasing the branching factor? How hard will it be to find new melodies a million years from now? Easier than today, the same, or harder?

It is, but it is increasing the branching factor by much more than finding all the "good" melodies in 400 years.

Here's a good example of music that stands on it own right despite using the melody of despacito: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqReeTV_vk - I'm pretty sure that most people at HN will appreciate this one whether they like despacito or not :)