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An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

kalzumeus.com

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Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#151

Post by rmccue »

sneak wrote: post #114
rmccue wrote: post #80

The clearest communication about the use of hashes rather than direct publication is laid out quite simply in patio11's original memo: > I have concerns about saying this loudly because I have an immigration status and because Japan has previously shot the messengers in times of national emergency, including in the wake of the 2011 disaster. As someone who has spent their entire adult life in Japan, who lives here wi…

At which URL did you find that text? I can't locate it on his site. I can confirm, though, as an expat, that there is a special kind of fear/restraint involved in needing an opt-in, discretionary permission from a government to be permitted to physically return to your home (which you already paid for) and your family. It causes a lot of security-conscious people to err far on the side of caution, which, indeed, may…

http://media.kalzumeus.com/covid-19/japan-covid19-memo-20200... - linked from “I did not publish the memo at the time.” just before the “ Why did you publish the hash and not the memo?” title.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#152

Post by tptacek »

panarky wrote: post #147
barry-cotter wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Refusing to test, secret testing locations, over two hours on hold on the COVID hotline. Things aren’t looking great. https://www.facebook.com/groups/524159784940511/permalink/52... > 4/17 Friday: At noon my friend wakes up and asks if I can call her ward's 保健所 and make a PCR test appointment for her. I call them at 12:30. > It took 2 HOURS to set up a PCR test. > As I expected, the staff was INCREDIBLY resistant to…

Ugh, that sounds like a system designed to frustrate and obfuscate at every level. But at some point, it's impossible to hide behind bureaucratic procedures to limit testing. @patio11's most falsifiable prediction was for a "breakdown of provision of care" -- too many sick people for the number of critical care beds, patients warehoused in hallways, lobbies, parking lots, tents and stadiums. And if sick people don't…

The timeline from Italy shows this can happen in a matter of days.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#153

Post by tptacek »

abduhl wrote: post #149
tptacek wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Patrick's entire narrative is sourced from facts generated by experts. His own contributions appear to involve statistical literacy, deep conversance with Japanese language and culture, the ability to locate and comprehend "open source" government documents, and the initiative to do something with those capabilities. We're not asked to take Patrick's word on whether HCQ is an effective treatment or whether procedure…

While I appreciate what you're trying to say here, your point is orthogonal to the discussion. The original comment was about the tone of patio11's post and the assertion that an anonymous white paper significantly altered policy decisions of one of the world's most technologically, scientifically, and academically advanced countries. The response the original commenter got from barry-cotter was to "shut up and liste…

I'm certainly not going to look for reasons for us to disagree! If we're on the same page about what I was talking about, I'm happy to move on.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#154

Post by barry-cotter »

aikinai wrote: post #108
aikinai wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm all over the thread with comments like these since the whole charade is ridiculous and is only getting undue attention here since Patrick is popular on Hacker News and very few commenters have familiarity with Japan, either as a whole or especially regarding the pandemic response. I've never met Patrick personally but also had a lot of respect for him from past writings; that's probably why I was so disappointed…

To mention one more thing, I think what really frustrates me about this and incited me to comment a lot here is that to make his effort seem like a big deal, Patrick is presenting everyone else in Japan as fools and building up this white savior narrative. His post implies that the Japanese experts and officials are both so inept that they couldn't keep up with his overnight-expert pandemic modeling and so malicious…

> To mention one more thing, I think what really frustrates me about this and incited me to comment a lot here is that to make his effort seem like a big deal, Patrick is presenting everyone else in Japan as fools and building up this white savior narrative.

Whatever about any legitimate criticisms you may have this is just being one or both of being an asshole or a racist. If Patrick had spent his entire adult life in Sweden and he was writing about how the Swedish government had messed up you wouldn’t be calling him anything equivalent.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#155

Post by philwelch »

timerol wrote: post #133

I really appreciate this post. It's hard to read, but this seems very intentional. There are a number of salient points that are very specifically not stated. Some questions deliberately not answered: Who was on the Working Group, other than Patrick? Dr. Tyler Cowen spread the results, but no one is mentioned as working in the group other than Patrick. This seems designed to limit potential social fallout to other pa…

> Who was on the Working Group, other than Patrick?

An interesting question—but if they wanted to be publicly known, they would be. I’d rather leave that to them.

> Patrick even convolutes his prose to the point where he never mentions the Olympics. I wouldn't be surprised if he had another sporting event in mind that also matched the specifics of what he wrote.

The NPB season was originally scheduled to start March 20 but has been postponed, with the original postponement decision announced March 9. The Olympics were postponed on March 24; the hash dates from March 25th.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#156

Post by AgentME »

AnonC wrote: post #100

> I felt, while my subjective confidence was 90%, that I was likely miscalibrated. The likelihood that one non-expert, doing casual sleuthing in his spare time, had scooped not just any expert but almost all the experts and almost all the parties in formal authority felt infinitesimally small. So...was it just a coincidence that the results seem vindicated? Or is the above statement just too much modesty? Or both?

There's a whole section at the end with his theories about why you could expect someone like him to get this better than the experts (the experts were too busy managing the intricacies of Plan A instead of constantly rigorously checking that its assumptions still held and whether it was time to give up and switch to Plan B, etc), and he makes a point against having too much modesty like he did if you have good data.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#157

Post by wglb »

aikinai wrote: post #108
aikinai wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm all over the thread with comments like these since the whole charade is ridiculous and is only getting undue attention here since Patrick is popular on Hacker News and very few commenters have familiarity with Japan, either as a whole or especially regarding the pandemic response. I've never met Patrick personally but also had a lot of respect for him from past writings; that's probably why I was so disappointed…

To mention one more thing, I think what really frustrates me about this and incited me to comment a lot here is that to make his effort seem like a big deal, Patrick is presenting everyone else in Japan as fools and building up this white savior narrative. His post implies that the Japanese experts and officials are both so inept that they couldn't keep up with his overnight-expert pandemic modeling and so malicious…

> Patrick is presenting everyone else in Japan as fools and building up this white savior narrative.

He really did no such thing.

And I think your comments would be better if they presumed good faith on the part of patio11.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#158

Post by wglb »

joe_the_user wrote: post #126
ohazi wrote: post #95

Most of this seemed blindingly obvious to me and my peers (in the US) at the time that Patrick tweeted his hashes. Several of the replies to his tweets correctly guessed the topic, and most came to similar conclusions. Anybody with half a brain knew what was going on. Maybe Japanese culture really is "different" and things really did need to be done this way, but I find myself agreeing with other comments here that t…

Yeah, making a secret prediction seems only justified when your position is in the extreme minority and when it contains fairly surprising and/or specific claims. When your claim is just supporting a "strong minority viewpoint", doing so secretly ridiculous.

I think the article points out the justification as a counter point to the likely official statements everywhere that "Nobody could have known".

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#159

Post by barry-cotter »

abduhl wrote: post #149
tptacek wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Patrick's entire narrative is sourced from facts generated by experts. His own contributions appear to involve statistical literacy, deep conversance with Japanese language and culture, the ability to locate and comprehend "open source" government documents, and the initiative to do something with those capabilities. We're not asked to take Patrick's word on whether HCQ is an effective treatment or whether procedure…

While I appreciate what you're trying to say here, your point is orthogonal to the discussion. The original comment was about the tone of patio11's post and the assertion that an anonymous white paper significantly altered policy decisions of one of the world's most technologically, scientifically, and academically advanced countries. The response the original commenter got from barry-cotter was to "shut up and liste…

> The response the original commenter got from barry-cotter was to "shut up and listen to your betters" because the commenter wasn't a "certified expert" followed by a rant that could have come straight from an episode of Coast to Coast AM.

I apologize for a lack of clarity in my writing but not for being very, very pissed off. I assumed it was obvious that I was paraphrasing kspacewalk in the bit about one’s betters, given that it directly followed a quote about the hubris of thinking that a mere peon’s opinion is worth anything or that what they do might matter.

If the people and institutions in which we have placed our trust fail us we have every right to be angry. The populace’s of Taiwan, Korea and Singapore should be showering their ministers, civil servants and CDC equivalents with rose petals. Everywhere else screwed up to varying extents and thousands to hundreds of thousands of people will die because they failed at their job.

Re: An update on a pre-registered result about the coronavirus

#160

Post by garmaine »

twic wrote: post #139
garmaine wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With this disease it appears asymptomatic people are equally infectious.

That was very much not my understanding. Do you have a proper technical source for that? I don't, and i wish i did!

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028

TL;DR contact tracing shows numerous cases of asymptomatic people that have introduced the disease to people near them.

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