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Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

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Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#521

I usually stay out of the political/topical threads on HN but this is personal to me. From my point of view few if any of us commenting here are knowledgeable enough to connect all the disparate data points we keep snatching at and synthesize them into conclusions that are likely to be correct. The people who can do that are working on it, and generally too busy at the moment to post on forums or give interviews. The…

Your right, we should ignore statistical evidence and go with your wife's anecdotal evidence. Your also right about letting the experts run our lives. After all they know far more about how the world works than we could ever know and we should just buckle down and do the menial tasks we're good at and let the experts take care of us.

>> Your right, we should ignore statistical evidence and go with your wife's anecdotal evidence.

I didn't offer anecdotal "evidence" of anything. I told a story from a professional who is on the front lines of this fight to illustrate that the numbers of people who die don't make it clear where the pressures on the medical system come from. They come from people needing care, whether or not they die. In fact whether they eventually die probably has little impact on the overall system load. If your statistical evidence, which is really just the odd bits of studies and reports you probably don't fully understand, disagrees with practitioner experience then it's probably wrong.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you realize when someone dies in a car accident that they may have otherwise lived another 40 or 80 years, whereas with covid they probably had two months.

I think it would be best if we avoided engaging in the despicable, ghoulish practice of valuing one life over another.

is a classic moral dilemma. a train heading for some people on track a or you can pull a lever and send divert it to track b where there is one person. if you do nothing, many die, if you pull the lever, one dies, but you killed him because he wouldn't have died otherwise. what would you do? there isnt one right answer, but our world is complex and we are always making decions that affect everyone else. it turns out different people have different intuitions about what is the 'right' thing to do. thats ok, and people who think this debate is as simple as "we must save lives from the virus at all costs, duh, #stfh" are totally ignorant of that

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#523
post #381
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can tell you "from the field" that there are plenty of real people who really do feel the lockdowns are being overdone and doing more harm than good, yes, even accounting for the possibility of an increased infection rate. The damage being done by the lockdown is a big number, and quite concrete; the damage that would have been done if we didn't lock down is a widely variable number under any honest analysis and th…

> The damage being done by the lockdown is a big number, and quite concrete; the damage that would have been done if we didn't lock down is a widely variable number under any honest analysis and the minimum of that range quite likely extends below the concrete costs of the lockdown It's really interesting to see that view phrased that way, because I see it oppositely: the "damage" as you put it, is "human lives lost"…

"and financial and economic losses in the other. The latter can certainly cause the loss of human life, but I haven't seen anything but hand-wavy attempts to quantify it."

There's a few reasons for that. One is that people are very reluctant to hear than there is a finite limit to the amount of money that other people should spend to save their lives. Another is that it is highly situation-dependent, so there really isn't one solid number.

Nevertheless, yes, at scale your mental conception of "economic damage" is probably incorrect. You are probably, if you mentally examine your conceptions, basically taking all the economic damage as coming out of "discretionary income"; who cares if we all lock ourselves up for a while and as a result, people can't buy the 65" new flatscreen TV they wanted and have to stick with what they have? Were that the truth, yes, economic damage would be something we could basically wave away.

It is not the truth. The economic impact does not entirely come out of discretionary income. Connect some other pieces in, such as the HN favorite "Most households can't handle an unexpected expense of a $1000." Connect in the fact that poverty isn't just not buying flatscreens, but food insecurity, childhood stress that we've had links to studies showing the long-term negative impact of, and the general badness of poverty. Economic damage is true damage, and will in the long term kill people. Moreover, we are choosing economic damage now that will persist for months or years, still hurting people, after the coronavirus would have been gone. It also hurts the poor more than the rich; frankly the coronavirus up to this point has hardly affected me personally at all, but that doesn't mean I should underestimate how it is affecting others. At the moment I can't name anyone who has been totally, utterly "fired" to the point that they are guaranteed they have no job to come back to, I can name many names of people currently not being paid, who may or may not all be made up by government checks.

Also note I'm not making a new argument, I'm still just defending my original claim that the range of possible outcomes is so wide that there are non-trivial options where coronavirus would have hurt less than a full lockdown. (Especially if you include other options, like, "tell everyone to wear masks, even impromptu ones made of T-Shirts over your face, wash your hands, limit social gatherings and cut schools (huge germ transmitters), but otherwise let the economy go. There's a lot of reason to believe that would have worked fairly well, beyond the scope I can go into right now.) But economic damage really will hurt people.

(On the other, other hand, it has been observed that the total death rate in the US is down right now, which also factors in somehow.)

Basically, I'm saying there's plenty of other contexts where we have no problem saying that economic hardship is really, really bad. It should be the same in this context, too. Otherwise, the next time someone is talking about how bad poverty is for someone, intellectual honesty would compel you to dismiss that argument the same way you are dismissing the idea right now that economy hardship is bad. If you are unwilling to agree with the proposition that "economic hardship isn't really a big deal in the long run" in that context, you shouldn't be agreeing with it in this one either.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’d assume most people, particularly landlords and local government would want to avoid that. This seems like a “prisoner’s dilemma” situation. It’s rational for an individual landlord to evict a delinquent tenant and seek a new one. However, if everyone does this the entire market collapses. It’s better for everyone if the landlord takes a short term haircut to preserve the market. Since cooperation is expected to…

... or maybe this "landlord" is a parent who just rents out their old small house, and is now unable to make the rent or car payments

How does that change things? I think small landlords are especially exposed to the dilemma because they have fewer resources at their disposal.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#525
post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden started out well but recent numbers indicate some concern. 1,580 deaths [1] as of Apr 20. Here are some comparisons and projections. I'm just using other people's estimates (I'm no expert but IHME ([3]) is). Sweden's expected total deaths of 5,890 by IHME, looks to be about 4,000 more deaths (preventable?) than comparable countries per capita (comparing Sweden to Switzerland which has 1429 current deaths). All…

[3] says 1000+ ICU beds needed and capacity 79 (!?) when actual numbers are 1000+ beds, of which about half are in use. So I would heavily discount its conclusion that deaths in Sweden will somehow surpass Germany (!?). In any case be mindful of the confidence intervals, they are huge and the projections seem much more volatile in general than local ones.

Agree this is far from an exact science and these estimates are adjusted as information and situations change. Still the much higher deaths expected per capita is shocking. One days passing has new info, higher deaths for Sweden than Sweden (185 vs 7) and also in new positive cases (545 vs 129). It's just one day but the trend is terrible. It's far worse in the us where I live, with multiple states about to open up and kill people unnecessarily.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#526

I guess it is easy to dismiss the message from ordinary people, since they do not express themselves as well as the professional speakers we are used to listen to. If instead of saying "I want a haircut.", they would say like Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." would they be taken more seriously? In the movie versio…

Here's a radical idea: allow people that want to ignore lockdown to do so, in exchange for refusal of anything but palliative care if they get sick with Coronavirus.

You forget that they will go and infect many others until they end in the hospital. That is the major issue with infections diseases.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#527
Fake news. Facebook communiqué actually reads "theories like physical distancing is ineffective" is now considered "misinformation". https://about.fb.com/news/2020/04/covid-19-misinfo-update/ Facebook goes too far. Communications company should not be forming its own opinions on heartbreaking policies necessary during an emergency that academy is still working to fully understand. If economy is asking people who didn't have 19b cash on hand to make sacrifices then nouveau riche sysadmins should not be denying them voice to express feelings online to friends and family too.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That can be easily flipped around though. From the perspective of people who see the virus as not in fact that dangerous in the grand scheme of things, it looks like a lot of people couldn't care less about the lives of others: the people who are trapped on their own for months at home under house arrest, the people who spent their lives building a business who tomorrow will have to tell their teammates it's all over…

This is just strawman after strawman. No one's saying we shouldn't do essential work like maintaining water treatment plants. No one's saying the economy is just spring breakers. In fact, they're demanding financial support from Congress to help people while the economy is shut down. Please do more research and be more responsible. The stakes are very high.

You've missed my point. There's no working definition of "essential". The water plant depends on regular deliveries of components. The components come from factories which in turn need more components, and those components come from factories that depend for business on orders from some "non essential" industry. So they shut down to preserve cash, and that ripples through the supply chain until suddenly water pressure is falling because treatment works can't get the supplies they need.

The economy is one giant web. You say it's a strawman argument, but that would mean I was putting words in people's mouths. The problem is that this is the opposite of what's happening: people aren't talking about these kinds of problems because they seem to perceive the economy as this optional nice-to-have thing which governments can neatly and instant partition into "needed" and "frippery which shouldn't matter if anyone is sick". That's just not how economies work.

Finally, please don't engage in childish condescension like your last statement. Describing people concerned about the economy as irresponsible is exactly the kind of behaviour I am condemning. There's nothing naive or irresponsible about the people sounding the alarm right now.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden shows that view is wrong.

These data show that retail, travel, and restaurants were all taking huge hits before lockdowns went in to wide effect: https://www.ft.com/content/d184fa0a-6904-11ea-800d-da70cff6e... Bay area issued the first national stay at home order on March 13. By then demand had already dropped precipitously. If your restaurant is seeing 60% fewer bookings, are you going to keep as many wait staff? Are you going to order as mu…

Given how many people have mild symptoms and how age-dependent it is, it's entirely plausible that 500 infections would yield only a handful of employees to sick to work.

And yet Sweden still disproves your point. Businesses have stayed open, including restaurants and other such businesses, and yet Swedish companies are not evaporating due to their workforces being too sick to work. That's not even close to happening, is it?

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet? Recall that the outbreak started in central Europe weeks before the USA locked down. Even in the harder hit countries, there are quiet hospitals almost everywhere. Look at Switzerland - it shares a huge land border with northern Italy and has large numbers of people who move across the borders, it volunteered to take Italian patients in. Swiss hospitals are receiving financial bailouts because they're so quiet,…

> There's no evidence lawmakers have any better insight into what's going on than anyone else, and quite a bit of evidence they may have worse insight I got some news for you: these protests seem to be indirectly financed by powerful politicians. https://www.salon.com/2020/04/16/conservative-grouplinked-to...

Your link doesn't say that or even lay the groundwork for that. It says the protest was organised by "a conservative group linked to Betsy DaVos [a conservative politician". There's no mention of funding anywhere.

Really, think about what you're implying here - that Americans somehow care so little about being placed under house arrest that they'd need to be paid to turn up to a protest about it? That's not the America I know.

As for "conservative group with links to conservative politicians", given the vague nature of the term "links" that's going to encompass a vast number of politically active people in the country. There's nothing surprising or sinister about people who distrust centralised state power organising protests against totalitarian actions. It's exactly what you'd expect to see.

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