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Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

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Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#431

Post by kimsant »

money is just a tool.

I'm a civil engineer. When we decide to buy, for example, protection side fences for a road, we calculate how many people will pass the road, how many will die with and without and how much cost the fence. If the price per life is bigger than target, lets say, we spend 5M$ to save 1 life, we Don't put the fence.

What you should do is to put a price to lifes, and then put a price to goods, and then make simulation to see how much goods are produced and lifes are taken in 2years range scenarios. Take in to account soft and harder measures, risk of second waves, asymmetrical lockdown by regions and ages and genders, inmunology ID, Testing, night work options to reduce contact... Anything!

Let the doctors do, let the engineers simulate, and let the best option execute as planned

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#432

Post by vkou »

tjr225 wrote: post #251
happytoexplain wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'd much rather have some stupid people protesting than have FB/outrage mobs driving what is okay to protest about. Note how dramatically you understate one side and overstate the other by your choice of wording.

I agree with your sentiment but one side is trying to dictate what is acceptable- the other is not.

This can also be phrased as a choice between one side that is trying to cause the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, and one that is not.

I don't care if the first group does it out of ignorance, or simple disregard for human life. They are free to play Russian roulette with their own lives. They have no moral right to do so with the lives of their neighbours.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#433

Post by vkou »

TheOtherDave wrote: post #412
camgunz wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When we have a plan that doesn't involve the likely death of thousands of people. I get it's frustrating to not have a timeline and that the stakes are high. But as shitty as it's gonna sound, life's not fair. But in terms of metric, people are actually talking about what stats to look at, mainly the reproduction rate (Cuomo refers to it as infection rate in his watch the dial slide) vs. hospital capacity. Angela Mer…

There's been some testing. It generally shows that _way_ more people have (or had) COVID-19 than we thought, and that most of the cases are so mild that people never even knew they were sick. NYC Hospitals find that 15% of pregnant women have COVID-19: https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/04/20/new... That particular article doesn't mention it, but other reports I've heard of said only about 1 in 8 of t…

All that the antibody studies have shown is that antibody studies grossly overestimate the number of people that have COVID-19.

If the studies are accurate, only 1/600 affected people die... Which means that every single man, woman, and child in NYC has already been infected, and that the death rate will drop to zero tomorrow. I find that rather difficult to believe.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#434

Post by MaxBarraclough »

Angostura wrote: post #423
kofejnik wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't simply "protect the salaries", government isn't some omnipotent god who simply needs to do some hand-waving to fix things. There isn't a fountain of wealth that the government is hiding from us! You can print more money (often bad), or make businesses pay salaries while taking no revenue (also bad)

I know that this is a shocking idea, but you can, in extraordinary circumstances, use a variety of government measures, including dipping into reservers to ensure that people don't starve and that businesses aren't forced to lay off people that they will need when businesses restart. Yes, government isn't some omnipotent god but neither is it some helpless pathetic entity that can't sort things out at a time of extra…

> dipping into reservers

My assumption is that governments are taking on some sort of debt here.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#435

Post by _9vpl »

thu2111 wrote: post #421
spiderfarmer wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This crisis shows you who some people really are. It seems a lot of people can't care less about the life of someone they don't know. That's a good thing. I now know what to think of those people. Who to avoid. But even better: it warms my heart to know the vast majority of people think it's okay to take an economic hit to save lives, to prevent the collapse of our healthcare systems, to buy time on our way to a vacc…

That can be easily flipped around though. From the perspective of people who see the virus as not in fact that dangerous in the grand scheme of things, it looks like a lot of people couldn't care less about the lives of others: the people who are trapped on their own for months at home under house arrest, the people who spent their lives building a business who tomorrow will have to tell their teammates it's all over…

A lot of people seem to believe “the economy” is about profits, conspicuous consumption, and something like what you might see in a rap video.

In reality, it is how we house, clothe, feed, and provide the most basic humans needs.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#436

Post by chimprich »

TheOtherDave wrote: post #412
camgunz wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When we have a plan that doesn't involve the likely death of thousands of people. I get it's frustrating to not have a timeline and that the stakes are high. But as shitty as it's gonna sound, life's not fair. But in terms of metric, people are actually talking about what stats to look at, mainly the reproduction rate (Cuomo refers to it as infection rate in his watch the dial slide) vs. hospital capacity. Angela Mer…

There's been some testing. It generally shows that _way_ more people have (or had) COVID-19 than we thought, and that most of the cases are so mild that people never even knew they were sick. NYC Hospitals find that 15% of pregnant women have COVID-19: https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/04/20/new... That particular article doesn't mention it, but other reports I've heard of said only about 1 in 8 of t…

> most of the cases are so mild that people never even knew they were sick

These studies don't add up, and there have been numerous criticisms of them referenced elsewhere in this discussion.

Just in your post, you're suggesting that 1 in 8 of infections are asymptomatic /and/ that 1 in 2 are asymptomatic. Those are very different figures.

Anecdotally, friends and acquaintances of mine who have had the disease are reporting that contact between people is very likely to result in a symptomatic infection.

Take the UK cabinet as a "public anecdote": the UK PM got the disease (and required intensive care), the PM's fiancee had to isolate with symptoms, so did the UK health minister, and the chief medical officer who shared the PM's press conferences, and the PM's chief advisor.

I don't know how many people Boris Johnson was in close contact with, but that outcome feels consistent with the 40-50% asymptomatic cases assumed by e.g. the Imperial study. It could easily be a bit outside that range, but it doesn't feel consistent with the idea that vastly more people are asymptomatic than not.

Of course, we need good data rather than anecdotes, and hopefully we'll get them soon. My money is on less than 50% asymptomatic though.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#437

Post by chimprich »

llcoolv wrote: post #351
kelnos wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People should be able to take a calculated risk. ... with their own lives . You're talking about allowing people to risk other people's lives, and no, that's not ok. > The most accurate data about the fatality rate of covid-19 may come from the Diamond Princess cruise boat where everyone has been tested. The 60-to-80 year old infected passengers had a fatality rate of ~2%. There was no fatality among the infected m…

> ... with their own lives. You're talking about allowing people to risk other people's lives, and no, that's not ok. So, let's ban driving then?

In my country we don't just let people drive however they like on public roads. You have to be above a certain age, have passed a test, not be drunk or stoned, be driving a roadworthy vehicle, and follow many other rules. Your risk to other people's lives is carefully managed.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#438

Post by pjc50 »

markbnj wrote: post #305

I usually stay out of the political/topical threads on HN but this is personal to me. From my point of view few if any of us commenting here are knowledgeable enough to connect all the disparate data points we keep snatching at and synthesize them into conclusions that are likely to be correct. The people who can do that are working on it, and generally too busy at the moment to post on forums or give interviews. The…

Something I've been wondering for a while is how long Facebook et al would let conspiracy stuff run wild once it came close to damaging their own interests. It's one thing to look at a forest fire from a distance and say "it's people's right to play with matches", quite another thing when it reaches your own office. Neither Facebook staff nor management are immune to the consequences of a pandemic.

There is a legitimate place for cost-benefit analysis. There isn't for "5G causes coronavirus" or "it's a myth being put about by the new world order". Those kind of memes are also a kind of virality that needs to be quarantined.

(Let's not pretend there's a censorship rubicon; Facebook will remove anything vaguely "adult" or related to copyright infringement very aggressively.)

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#439

Post by DavidVoid »

duchenne wrote: post #155

I guess it is easy to dismiss the message from ordinary people, since they do not express themselves as well as the professional speakers we are used to listen to. If instead of saying "I want a haircut.", they would say like Benjamin Franklin: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." would they be taken more seriously? In the movie versio…

> Several countries have not decided to do a stay-at-home-lockdown including Sweden

The Swedish approach is based on the idea that people who have any symptoms at all are able to stay home from work. I really doubt that that approach would work in countries like the US where workers' rights are much weaker.

And although Sweden is not in a mandatory stay-at-home lockdown pretty much anyone who is able to work from home is doing so and the streets are much emptier than usual.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#440

Post by kds3 »

ThePowerOfFuet wrote: post #58
bpodgursky wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's a guy in Florida who went through and parked a bunch of domains with the same pattern. Maybe because he believed in the cause, and maybe because he wanted to make a few quick bucks. "Astroturfing" would be when paid shills or robots spam FCC comment boards. It's not astroturfing when thousands of genuine supporters of a cause show up at a protest, whether or not there is coordination (surprise, all protests…

Read the Krebs link. Follow the Florida guy's phone number...

Florida guy's phone number is registered in Jacksonville, FL (same with WHOIS records) [0]. Brian probably made a mistake, happens to everyone.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22931919

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