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Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

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Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#381

Post by kelnos »

jerf wrote: post #198
TomMckenny wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>that all involved are trying to minimize general death and misery Unless the anti-quarantine events are organized by a hostile power. And this seems likely since they are insanely harmfully, arose suddenly and with widespread and great organization and have a lot of precedent. [1][2][3] And especially since it's already been explicitly shown for at least some of the domains connected to the protests.[4] [1] https://…

I can tell you "from the field" that there are plenty of real people who really do feel the lockdowns are being overdone and doing more harm than good, yes, even accounting for the possibility of an increased infection rate. The damage being done by the lockdown is a big number, and quite concrete; the damage that would have been done if we didn't lock down is a widely variable number under any honest analysis and th…

> The damage being done by the lockdown is a big number, and quite concrete; the damage that would have been done if we didn't lock down is a widely variable number under any honest analysis and the minimum of that range quite likely extends below the concrete costs of the lockdown

It's really interesting to see that view phrased that way, because I see it oppositely: the "damage" as you put it, is "human lives lost" in one case, and financial and economic losses in the other. The latter can certainly cause the loss of human life, but I haven't seen anything but hand-wavy attempts to quantify it. While the potential death toll due to relaxing shelter-in-place and social distancing measures isn't absolutely known either, I find the estimated ranges to be both persuasive and unacceptable.

We can make people whole financially (though I admit I have little confidence that this will be accomplished all that well) after the fact, but we can't bring people back from the dead.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#382

Post by kelnos »

dahart wrote: post #231
gdubs wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m too tired at the moment to figure out where I stand on this [issue of free speech / assembly] but I have a general question: I thought the Supreme Court has already shown that there are limits to speech, such as yelling “Fire” in a crowded theater. I guess the distinction is how directly the speech leads to harm. Would that apply in this situation where most medical experts would agree that the quarantine is nece…

> I thought the Supreme Court has already shown that there are limits to speech Yes correct, freedom of speech is not absolute, there are a lot of limitations in the U.S.: “libel, slander, obscenity, pornography, sedition, incitement, fighting words, classified information, copyright violation, trade secrets, food labeling, non-disclosure agreements, the right to privacy, dignity, the right to be forgotten, public se…

Given that the gatherings themselves would be illegal due to shelter-in-place orders, planning a protest would seem to be speech that "incites a violation of the law that is both imminent and likely".

But then I guess you have to contend with the question of whether or not making gatherings illegal in the first place is constitutional, even for the purposes of curbing a public health crisis. I personally hope it is constitutional, but I'm no legal scholar.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#383

Post by kristianc »

roenxi wrote: post #380
meheleventyone wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point there is that the person clogged up an ICU bed for five weeks and will likely recover. Focussing on who will most likely die does not answer the who will overwhelm hospitals question. Increasing pressure in that sense will increase death rate even further amongst vulnerable (to dying from lack of ICU beds) populations.

Now I don't know if what is going on really makes sense or not, and I'm pretty happy to wait 6 months before I decide myself who should and shouldn't have done what - apart from the obvious stuff like the US CDC banning private companies from selling test kits has to be the stupidest crisis response I've seen in my lifetime. The reaction is going to look stupid in hindsight whatever happens, people were forced to mak…

Incidentally, they're not always even always overwhelmed. In the UK, where we were told initially that it was not even a question of if the NHS would be overwhelmed but how overwhelmed the NHS would be, hospitals are now operating with record high levels of capacity. There are as many free beds in the NHS today as there are people in beds. The 3,000 extra bed field hospital they built (one of six) has so far seen 19 patients.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#384

Post by czardoz »

null0pointer wrote: post #271
hsitz wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Covid-19 is not like the seasonal flu. Or, yeah, maybe it is just like the flu, except (1) covid-19 is more contagious, (2) Covid-19 is much more likely to kill you if you get infected, and (3) much of the population has immunity so seasonal flu, while almost nobody has immunity to Covid-19,so it would run roughshod over a population if people didn't social distance (unless testing/contact tracing infrastructure was…

Settle down. They're not comparing COVID-19 to the Flu, they're using the Flu as an example to talk about transitive infections.

That's completely tangential to the discussion. No one's trying to figure out who to blame for spreading the virus.

The point I was trying to make was, restrictions on personal freedom are reasonable in this case to keep the broader society healthy.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#385

Post by hutzlibu »

markbnj wrote: post #305

I usually stay out of the political/topical threads on HN but this is personal to me. From my point of view few if any of us commenting here are knowledgeable enough to connect all the disparate data points we keep snatching at and synthesize them into conclusions that are likely to be correct. The people who can do that are working on it, and generally too busy at the moment to post on forums or give interviews. The…

"Someone mentioned quarantining the "vulnerable" people and letting everyone else get back to work"

I am one of those, who think that way, as a preferred solution. Now there are of course many problems with this approach, because who is "vulnerable"? Who decides on that. Because it also means, that those categorized as not vulnerable, would be expected to go to work etc. and those who do get quarantined should get compensated, otherwise they must go out, out of basic needs (money).

Now for some, this would mean, you can get paid vacation, if you just say, you have been a heavy smoker. Abuse of the system. So medical tests for classification of "vulnerable"? And then who compensates the relatives of the people who were classificated "non-risk" and forced to work, but did get sick and died of it?

So it is not easy. But I still think, that direction would be easier, because "We can absolutely make it through a few months if we have to, while they do their work" is only valid, for people with lots of savings. People who live from paycheck to paycheck cannot. They would need help (from government most likely) or die. And who helps all those, who spend years building up a business and have it all wasted, to protect other people? Is that fair? And there are government programs in place all around the world, but I have serious doubts, that they really compensate in a meaningful way. So the result will be most likely, the big survive and prosper (see Amazon) and the small vanishes. So killing the weak in the name of protecting the weak?

Now yes, it is usually a different thing to die economically and to die literally, but for some the result might be the same. Their live work shattered.

So this is the other side.

There is no easy solution I see, but for context: look at all the poor countries, they really have no other way, than "let it wash over them". You can't really lock people in their home for long(even though they try), if their home is a crowded metal shed in the slums with no AC, power or even running water. They will be cocked, before they starve to death. So what can they do? Live on. But it does not seem to me, that Covid-19 really takes a higher death toll, than all the other diseases are already taking. Some die, but the rest lives on.

This is harsh, but the way it is for them and somewhat working. And in any case, that also means, that the virus cannot really be wiped out globally. So is the solution really to lock the rich world in and the poor world out, until someday maybe a reliable cure or vaccine gets deployed? Well, that seems to be the current plan and it might work, but not if the total lockdown goes on forever. Because then, some parts of the "rich" world will also turn into "poor", with no other choice than working again and take the losses.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#386

Post by j4kp07 »

meheleventyone wrote: post #361
antpls wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Her first patient was 51. I bet that's younger than most of you are thinking when you think "vulnerable." It looks like he's going to make it and drop into that large "didn't die" bucket I see referred to here over and over, but to get there he spent _five weeks_ in an ICU bed on a ventilator. My wife has treated lots of elderly people. She's also treated people in their 30's and 40's. People in those age groups ha…

I think the point there is that the person clogged up an ICU bed for five weeks and will likely recover. Focussing on who will most likely die does not answer the who will overwhelm hospitals question. Increasing pressure in that sense will increase death rate even further amongst vulnerable (to dying from lack of ICU beds) populations.

The mortality rate is much less than first assumed (by a factor of 50 or more) and contraction rates are higher at hospitals, so the misplaced fear may have compounded the effects.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v...

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#387

Post by JSavageOne »

otterley wrote: post #311
sneak wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's been a month. We can absolutely make it through a few months if we have to, while they do their work. You and I can. Many of my friends have missed a rent or car payment, and may soon miss another. Most people cannot work from home.

Fortunately many states are suspending unlawful detainer and eviction actions until the crisis is over and people can get back to work. They are similarly restricting foreclosure actions for impacted landlords who would otherwise use the rental income to pay their mortgages. This is also the humane thing to do because this crisis is no fault of the renters.

That's not enough if you're one of the 78% of Americans who live paycheck to paycheck and one of the 40% who can't cover a $400 emergency expense.

Most Americans are broke, it's just not really talked about.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#388

Post by jariel »

markbnj wrote: post #367
jariel wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the wrong comment for this post - you cite 'misinformation' as problem, and then go on to mislead/misinform with a misrepresentative anecdote. 1) Your anecdote is not consistent with the national concern - it's local to your area. My father is currently in a hospital for an unrelated reason and it's almost empty -> they are 'prepared for war' and there isn't a single COVID patient in the entire area, let alon…

>> My father is currently in a hospital for an unrelated reason and it's almost empty -> they are 'prepared for war' and there isn't a single COVID patient in the entire area, let alone hospital. They are all empty. Which is just as anecdotal. The virus doesn't spread everywhere at once, and there are a lot of places in the country/world that aren't NYC/North Jersey yet. If they have similar population density and do…

Of course it's an anecdote, that's my point - an anecdote doesn't give the national picture.

" social isolation then what magic do you suggest will make the outcomes different there?"

If you'd bother to consider outside the narrow confines of the USA you might want to consider what 'magic' the Singaporean, Hong Kong and S. Korean systems are using because they are considerably more dense and doing really well. Sweden is also dong 'kind of ok' without any lock-down.

The real issue however is the suppression of people's right to communicate and gather, even if online.

We have a situation in which the nation is forcibly locked into their homes, and large conglomerates are suppressing further their ability to communicate. This is existentially disturbing.

The most important right we have is to effectively gather and confer with one another, because the first thing authoritarian regimes want to do is stop people form 'meeting to figure out how to get rid of the regime'.

I wish the protestors would practice better social distancing, and I do think we should remain locked-down, but I absolutely support their right to voice their concerns.

In fact the government should be doing much more to mollify concerns over freedom of movement and expression etc, legislating limits to such rules, requiring oversight etc..

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#389

Post by tinus_hn »

maxerickson wrote: post #146
djsumdog wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden has open schools, movie theaters, restaurants (limited people; tables further apart) and bars (can't buy beer). People are working from home when they can. High risk people and older people are told to self isolate. Their hospitals are not overwhelmed. Their people do no wear masks. They hope the infection can spread slowly and they can deal with it. Sweden is criticized heavily, but if their strategy works, t…

Even assuming a high undetected multiplier, a small fraction of their population has been exposed. There's not much reason to expect it to slow down any time soon, their overall immunity isn't going to be much different than anywhere else at this point.

The numbers are a pretty good reason to see it slow down right now. They hit the peak in casualties in the beginning of April.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#390

Post by echelon »

roenxi wrote: post #380
meheleventyone wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point there is that the person clogged up an ICU bed for five weeks and will likely recover. Focussing on who will most likely die does not answer the who will overwhelm hospitals question. Increasing pressure in that sense will increase death rate even further amongst vulnerable (to dying from lack of ICU beds) populations.

Now I don't know if what is going on really makes sense or not, and I'm pretty happy to wait 6 months before I decide myself who should and shouldn't have done what - apart from the obvious stuff like the US CDC banning private companies from selling test kits has to be the stupidest crisis response I've seen in my lifetime. The reaction is going to look stupid in hindsight whatever happens, people were forced to mak…

> the US CDC banning private companies from selling test kits has to be the stupidest crisis response I've seen in my lifetime.

What happens when the kits are faulty or non-experts interpret the data? Lots of folks will think they're safe and go home to visit at-risk elders.

> All that said 'the hospitals are being overwhelmed' isn't a good reason to shut down most of the economy.

The hospitals are overwhelmed, so there will be no help for you when you need it. Any care that would have addressed accidents, infections, major medical emergencies will be under duress. People will die from preventable reasons.

> There is a correlation with bad economies and war breaking out.

This is outrageous to suggest.

> there needs to be a better reason than 'ICU nurses are overwhelmed with work' to strip people of their right to make their own mistakes.

Unfortunately when you get covid-19, you can spread it along and become part of an infection chain that leads to the deaths of others.

Do people have the right to drive under the influence?

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