Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events • Hacker News Board

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#361

Post by meheleventyone » Tue, Apr 21, 2020, 7:16 AM UTC

antpls wrote: post #339

markbnj wrote: post #305

I usually stay out of the political/topical threads on HN but this is personal to me. From my point of view few if any of us commenting here are knowledgeable enough to connect all the disparate data points we keep snatching at and synthesize them into conclusions that are likely to be correct. The people who can do that are working on it, and generally too busy at the moment to post on forums or give interviews. The…

> Her first patient was 51. I bet that's younger than most of you are thinking when you think "vulnerable." It looks like he's going to make it and drop into that large "didn't die" bucket I see referred to here over and over, but to get there he spent _five weeks_ in an ICU bed on a ventilator. My wife has treated lots of elderly people. She's also treated people in their 30's and 40's. People in those age groups ha…

I think the point there is that the person clogged up an ICU bed for five weeks and will likely recover. Focussing on who will most likely die does not answer the who will overwhelm hospitals question. Increasing pressure in that sense will increase death rate even further amongst vulnerable (to dying from lack of ICU beds) populations.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#362

Post by markbnj » Tue, Apr 21, 2020, 7:16 AM UTC

orbifold wrote: post #356

markbnj wrote: post #305

I usually stay out of the political/topical threads on HN but this is personal to me. From my point of view few if any of us commenting here are knowledgeable enough to connect all the disparate data points we keep snatching at and synthesize them into conclusions that are likely to be correct. The people who can do that are working on it, and generally too busy at the moment to post on forums or give interviews. The…

I had to google the ratio of patients to nurses in various countries, because 2:1 seemed very low. In Germany it is 13:1 under normal circumstances and according to a German newspaper it is 5.3 : 1 on average in the US. So something very unusual is going on at your wives hospital or the number of ICU nurses per patient is just higher than in normal stations.

It could be that it's a small regional hospital, or it could be something else, I don't know. It could be that the statistics are measuring something different. She's been on the cardiac critical care unit (converted to negative pressure covid-19 ICU beds for the duration) for 12 years so I suspect she's at least as aware of the normal ratio as google.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#363

Post by stanfordkid » Tue, Apr 21, 2020, 7:16 AM UTC

elgenie wrote: post #281

stanfordkid wrote: post #269

As we do serological testing, it is being revealed that the death rate was even lower than previously imagined -- potentially by a factor of 50x [1]. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0 Most places (outside of super dense metros) actually don't need quarantine at all. Maybe for people working in eldercare. With these new statistics the risk of death for those <65 is about the same as the normal ris…

That preprint [1] is a great example of how far ahead of the skis you can get with motivated reasoning, bad math, and no peer review. They recruited people over Facebook at a time that California's COVID tests were backlogged (with ads not presented in the paper, with links to signup that could, anecdotally, be shared out); in that situation, avoiding selection bias towards people that were sick with something previo…

Wow -- really enjoyed the write up by Balaji S. -- I had heard about these flaws earlier, but didn't realize how great they really were.

I still maintain the gist of my point though -- we don't have sufficient evidence for widespread quarantine. New York and Italy are outliers, and should be understood as such. Even if the results are 5x or 10x instead of 50x -- it still means decisions were made on grossly inflated worst case data.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#364

Post by totony » Tue, Apr 21, 2020, 7:17 AM UTC

FpUser wrote: post #331

lazyasciiart wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Should the government be obligated to offer you support for that choice? That would probably mean at minimum money to replace your work income, something like a new category of 'being high risk' a qualification for unemployment. Or should your choice be limited to self isolate and starve, or keep working?

What support? Said person will just have higher chances to die. Their choice. They're not inflicting death upon the others as accordingly to proposal there are no restrictions on younger carriers without symptoms.

I'm unsure if the person you responded to undertstood what you meant. I understood it as "if I am >60+, e.g. at risk, would i be free to not participate in the quarantine if partial quarantine were to happen"

I'd argue that no, you should not be. Because if you get it, you will most likely require care and overload hospitals, which is what the whole point of that (partial) quarantine is. Either that or you forfeit your right to healthcare, which has loads of moral issues

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#365

Post by markbnj » Tue, Apr 21, 2020, 7:18 AM UTC

triyambakam wrote: post #345

markbnj wrote: post #305

I usually stay out of the political/topical threads on HN but this is personal to me. From my point of view few if any of us commenting here are knowledgeable enough to connect all the disparate data points we keep snatching at and synthesize them into conclusions that are likely to be correct. The people who can do that are working on it, and generally too busy at the moment to post on forums or give interviews. The…

There are increasing reports that ventilators are doing more harm than good, that in fact the way this virus starves the body of oxygen isn't pneumonia, but rather in the blood. It's like a reverse survivorship bias - most patients vented die.

Yeah, I asked my wife about that the other day because I read some of the same reports. They are trying many different things but for various reasons the most serious patients still end up on ventilators.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#366

Post by camgunz » Tue, Apr 21, 2020, 7:18 AM UTC

helaoban wrote: post #349

camgunz wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, let me try and defuse this a little. I'm sure we're both doing our best and these are trying times. Let's endeavor to be civil and not assume things about each other. For example, you have no idea what I did all day, so let me tell you. I work in social good, trying to close the access to justice gap. The way I justify not taking a plane to some hotspot is that I think I can "do the most good" (in the immortal wo…

Sorry if I sound irascible, but I think my point stands. Any reopening of the economy before the entire population is vaccinated will necessarily put some lives at risk. The destruction being wrought by continued mothballing of the economy is awesome, and it may well result in the premature deaths of millions of people. Pointing this out is not minimizing the danger of covid-19, it’s putting it into context. And accu…

Yeah I'm also a "recessions kill people" person, and people I'm close to personally are struggling.

If we're gonna have a reasonable policy discussion about this, my understanding is the plan is to not evict/foreclose/repossess for the time being, and print money to bail people out. That seems within our power. Containing the spread of coronavirus without sheltering or a massive testing regime doesn't.

It doesn't solve everything, people's lives are put on hold in more ways than just financially and we need to keep looking for answers. But again I think we can figure that out.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#367

Post by markbnj » Tue, Apr 21, 2020, 7:20 AM UTC

jariel wrote: post #344

markbnj wrote: post #305

I usually stay out of the political/topical threads on HN but this is personal to me. From my point of view few if any of us commenting here are knowledgeable enough to connect all the disparate data points we keep snatching at and synthesize them into conclusions that are likely to be correct. The people who can do that are working on it, and generally too busy at the moment to post on forums or give interviews. The…

This is the wrong comment for this post - you cite 'misinformation' as problem, and then go on to mislead/misinform with a misrepresentative anecdote. 1) Your anecdote is not consistent with the national concern - it's local to your area. My father is currently in a hospital for an unrelated reason and it's almost empty -> they are 'prepared for war' and there isn't a single COVID patient in the entire area, let alon…

>> My father is currently in a hospital for an unrelated reason and it's almost empty -> they are 'prepared for war' and there isn't a single COVID patient in the entire area, let alone hospital. They are all empty.

Which is just as anecdotal. The virus doesn't spread everywhere at once, and there are a lot of places in the country/world that aren't NYC/North Jersey yet. If they have similar population density and do a similar job of social isolation then what magic do you suggest will make the outcomes different there?

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#368

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 21, 2020, 7:20 AM UTC

FpUser wrote: post #223

nopriorarrests wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it double speak? Yes, I think that healthy 29 y.o. male with wife, kid and mortgage should have the ability to make a decision between going to work or losing his home. To make this decision for him looks unethical to me. And why exactly poor? It might be solidly middle class person. EDIT: I'm pushing forties, can sustain myself for 1.5 years without working maintaining the same lifestyle, and I would go to wo…

"I'm damn tired working from home." Interesting. I work from home 20 years already and have no desire to sit in a cubicle or waste my time in downtown traffic. I have my own company and products but also develop products for other companies on order and my first ever requirement is that unless there is some super duper meeting I only work at my own premises. Do not feel lonely either as I have enough friends with who…

[deleted]

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#369

Post by markbnj » Tue, Apr 21, 2020, 7:25 AM UTC

sneak wrote: post #309

markbnj wrote: post #305

I usually stay out of the political/topical threads on HN but this is personal to me. From my point of view few if any of us commenting here are knowledgeable enough to connect all the disparate data points we keep snatching at and synthesize them into conclusions that are likely to be correct. The people who can do that are working on it, and generally too busy at the moment to post on forums or give interviews. The…

> It's been a month. We can absolutely make it through a few months if we have to, while they do their work. You and I can. Many of my friends have missed a rent or car payment, and may soon miss another. Most people cannot work from home.

> You and I can. Many of my friends have missed a rent or car payment, and may soon miss another. Most people cannot work from home.

Sure, and I'm very aware of my privilege in that sense. If people have the choice of getting the disease or missing rent payments that is a social failing we should all be ashamed of. I also don't mean to ignore the global perspective. The U.S. is materially wealthy enough that we could take care of people who need help as we get through this. Other nations don't necessarily have the resources.

Re: Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine events

#370

Post by tangue » Tue, Apr 21, 2020, 7:27 AM UTC

orbifold wrote: post #356

markbnj wrote: post #305

I usually stay out of the political/topical threads on HN but this is personal to me. From my point of view few if any of us commenting here are knowledgeable enough to connect all the disparate data points we keep snatching at and synthesize them into conclusions that are likely to be correct. The people who can do that are working on it, and generally too busy at the moment to post on forums or give interviews. The…

I had to google the ratio of patients to nurses in various countries, because 2:1 seemed very low. In Germany it is 13:1 under normal circumstances and according to a German newspaper it is 5.3 : 1 on average in the US. So something very unusual is going on at your wives hospital or the number of ICU nurses per patient is just higher than in normal stations.

It depends of which unit. In an intensive care unit the norm is 1:1 or 2:1. Lies and statistics ...