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Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

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Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>you can only take Lyft/Uber and it costs $100 each way to get to the store Hard to follow this analogy

The part about depending on only semi-reliable third parties for your logistics, or the part about the supply chain costs being 1000x your material cost?

The part where a trip to the grocery store costs $100

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#442
post #425
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My grandfather in Colorado did the opposite once in the 1970s. He needed some cattle, so he bought a small quantity of cattle futures of some form (I was too young when I heard the story to remember the details) from a broker/commodity trader in Chicago. When the contract approached the settlement date, the broker called to ask him to sell. Trouble was, my grandfather just wanted cows, not cash. The broker was frustr…

I don't know. Somebody has to take delivery of the cattle, so why not the guy who wants some cattle?

People do take delivery on commodities obviously but you don't want to go through a speculator for this.

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#443
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the memo that generated the news story you linked: > IV. Accidental Releases Nothing in this temporary policy relieves any entity from the responsibility to prevent, respond to, or report accidental releases of oil, hazardous substances, hazardous chemicals, hazardous waste, and other pollutants, as required by federal law, or should be read as a willingness to exercise enforcement discretion in the wake of such…

If one wished to be nit-picky, one might note that the part you quote is explicitly about "accidental" releases, so arguably does not apply to the deliberate release that the originator of this thread branch was talking about. :-)

There is a separate note about criminal violations not facing “enforcement discretion”, which unless I'm mistaken covers pretty much any intentional release.

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also full. The proportion of the global tanker fleet that is just full of oil sitting off coast near refineries is at an all time high. A lot of speculators were betting that oil prices were going to go up and had rented ships and filled them with oil they though was cheap, before COVID-19 even hit. Since then, oil prices have absolutely cratered.

How do these tanker contracts work? Are speculators leasing the tankers on a month to month basis? What happens when/if the tanker isn't offloaded at the end of a contract?

Typically most tankers are owner operated, under a long-term charter or on the spot market they are doing jobs that days/weeks/months

It’s a pretty efficient market

See this article (Suspect rates have climbed even further as the storage trade becomes more lucrative.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gauravsharma/2020/03/12/superta...

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#445
Completely naive question, but I'm curious: all of the negatively priced oil is coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia. What keeps the US from applying large tariffs to oil imports from those countries (or on all imports)?

If it's in our best interest to keep US oil companies alive (I understand that it is), wouldn't this be an effective way to accomplish this goal, with the side benefit of receiving additional tax revenue?

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The part about depending on only semi-reliable third parties for your logistics, or the part about the supply chain costs being 1000x your material cost?

The part where a trip to the grocery store costs $100

Surge pricing because everyone wants to get the deal there

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#447
post #445

Completely naive question, but I'm curious: all of the negatively priced oil is coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia. What keeps the US from applying large tariffs to oil imports from those countries (or on all imports)? If it's in our best interest to keep US oil companies alive (I understand that it is), wouldn't this be an effective way to accomplish this goal, with the side benefit of receiving additional tax reve…

Oil companies may benefit from keeping oil expensive, but other parts of the economy that depend on oil do not. For them, tariffs are an extra tax on them and ultimately consumers.

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#448
post #447
post #445

Completely naive question, but I'm curious: all of the negatively priced oil is coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia. What keeps the US from applying large tariffs to oil imports from those countries (or on all imports)? If it's in our best interest to keep US oil companies alive (I understand that it is), wouldn't this be an effective way to accomplish this goal, with the side benefit of receiving additional tax reve…

Oil companies may benefit from keeping oil expensive, but other parts of the economy that depend on oil do not. For them, tariffs are an extra tax on them and ultimately consumers.

If the tariffs are only applied to keep oil at some nominal level, don't both parties benefit somewhat? You can still have very cheap oil while keeping the price high enough to keep US oil companies alive (if only barely).

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What I don't understand is why the sudden move today? Did the longs think they had a place to put the oil on Friday but found out over the weekend they had no place to put it? Just seems like you would know what to do with the oil on Friday. Note this is not a rhetorical question, I would sincerely like an answer. Guys like myself, an ex fund manager, could be tourists in the oil market. I know I was, speculating o…

A really risky (but I think worth the risk) bet is to buy the front and sell the back. You will receive a huge credit, and as long as you close out the back leg below what you sold for, you’re in the clear.

How do you not get eaten alive by the negative roll yield (super contango) if you don’t have access to storage?

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#450
post #447
post #445

Completely naive question, but I'm curious: all of the negatively priced oil is coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia. What keeps the US from applying large tariffs to oil imports from those countries (or on all imports)? If it's in our best interest to keep US oil companies alive (I understand that it is), wouldn't this be an effective way to accomplish this goal, with the side benefit of receiving additional tax reve…

Oil companies may benefit from keeping oil expensive, but other parts of the economy that depend on oil do not. For them, tariffs are an extra tax on them and ultimately consumers.

Aren't Russia and Saudi Arabia playing a short term game to try and run US shale companies out of business? In that case, wouldn't it be logical for the government to step in and protect these companies via tariffs rather than bailing them out in a few months when they go bankrupt? It would presumably be cheaper.
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