391–400 of 546 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just a guess, but maybe the consensus is that June is going to be the same (or worse) as May and they are going to have trouble unloading those contracts? It may come to the point that you're paying some to take the contract.
But then the price in June should also be down.
'One of the great trades in modern history involved steep contango and a lot of oil tankers. In 1990, Phibro, the oil-trading arm of Salomon Brothers, loaded tankers with cheap crude just before Iraq invaded neighboring Kuwait and crude prices surged. The trade’s architect, Andy Hall, became known for a $100 million payday and bought a century-old castle in Germany.'
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm going to try and translate the simplest concept that tempsy is saying. The sellers were looking to sell for most of last week, however there fewer buyers as the contract approached its end, and those who were willing to buy wanted a lower price: Volume of transactions on Friday was 344k, Thursday was 111m, Wednesday was 147m. In the past 30 days, the low was 686k (ex Friday), and the high was 459m. Traders slowed…
That still doesn't answer: why wasn't it anticipated and reflected in earlier pricing (even if volume-weighted it would be a much smaller drop, it still seems to have been missed even from futures options)?
In short, the reason nobody anticipated it is because the future is unknown. The reason any market is unpredictable is because there are too many variables to account for.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The comment was to lightheartedly point out the incorrect doom and gloom predictions over the last 100 years, where people have been predicting that we're going to run out of oil "soon." Now we have so much we can't get rid of it. For example: https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predic...
Really not sure why both of my comments are getting down-voted into oblivion, but case and point, oil is now trading at -$37.00 ( negative thirty seven dollars) https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-... Can someone explain the down-votes?
It is easy to agree that "running out of oil" sometimes was conflated with "peak oil", but alas, that's just ignorance.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That still doesn't answer: why wasn't it anticipated and reflected in earlier pricing (even if volume-weighted it would be a much smaller drop, it still seems to have been missed even from futures options)?
If you have the answer to the question you are asking, you should change careers into oil contract trading; you'll probably make a bundle. In short, the reason nobody anticipated it is because the future is unknown. The reason any market is unpredictable is because there are too many variables to account for.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You still haven't answered the question...
I'm going to try and translate the simplest concept that tempsy is saying. The sellers were looking to sell for most of last week, however there fewer buyers as the contract approached its end, and those who were willing to buy wanted a lower price: Volume of transactions on Friday was 344k, Thursday was 111m, Wednesday was 147m. In the past 30 days, the low was 686k (ex Friday), and the high was 459m. Traders slowed…
-Former dumb oil trader
Otherwise, the supply is just going to continue to accumulate.
If the pandemic lasts longer than 6 months, which is quite likely, many high-cost oil producers might not survive. Some would argue this could lead to shortage and a much higher price later on, but long-term oil demand could also be affected. There might be some semi-permanent change in people's behaviors if the epidemic continues for many months. Many people will form a habit of doing more things at home/online: mor…
If this comes to pass, I'm all for it. If we could take the demand we saw for oil, and put it into demand for high-speed Internet, we could see completely new, blue ocean markets. Imagine a surgeon being able to control a robotic surgery tool from the comforts of his/her home, where you have to have extremely low-latency or guaranteed low-latency networks. Or imagine mecheng offices running simulation jobs in the clo…
that's totally a thing. worked on low-latency, high resolution remoting software for this purpose exactly. Buy a bunch of beefy servers and have scientists remote in from a laptop to run graphic intensive simulations, rather than buy a workstation for everyone.