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Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

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Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#331
post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now trading at -$37.00. That's right. Negative thirty seven dollars. Today: -54.67, -299.23%. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-...

I wonder if that negative int broke a bunch of code in software around the world

CME website itself crashed for over an hour.

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok folks - I'll never ever use some kind of "joke" here again. Do you really want to discuss that being a software developer requires at least a glimpse of being "smart"? I wanted to use it in a way to express "humbleness", that's why the stress should be on "somehow". I need a break, seriously.

> Do you really want to discuss that being a software developer requires at least a glimpse of being "smart"? Pretty sure that'll be a topic of conversation on HN for decades to come.

If only I'd known...

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#334
post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Son I sure hope thats not an Int. Its double, float or something else

To be doubly pedantic, it probably is an int in many places, to avoid rounding errors.

Correct. In finance it is the norm to store all currency amounts as int.

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#335
post #306
post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if that negative int broke a bunch of code in software around the world

Son I sure hope thats not an Int. Its double, float or something else

Often trading systems represent prices as integral values; using fixed point. It eliminates some problems with rounding.

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#336
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll also see the economy in the fourth largest city in the US - Houston - collapse. It's not just the large energy companies here, but the entire ecosystem of companies that support the energy industry here.

Are there any signs of this starting to happen given how low prices have gone?

I used to work in the industry. In the near term after a price drop, companies will still have projects they need to work on, and they have cash buffers on hand so they don't have to axe their whole staff after a bump in the road.

However, those cash reserves will quickly burn though. And the worst part is a lot of Houston's economy is buttressed by oilfield services companies, which make all their money off drilling new fracking wells.

Right now, it makes 0 sense to drill new fracking wells (-40 sense, to be more accurate), and they have big loans on billions of dollars worth of equipment.

It's gonna hurt soon, and it's going to hurt very bad.

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depreciation exists, and for mining investments, it's quite fast. Without extra investments, in 3 years most of that infrastructure won't be there anymore.

Fascinating. Is crude oil extra corrosive or is it something in the environment? Ocean salt water is highly corrosive but then what about equipment on land? Is there something that could be done to make an idled investment last longer?

Not so much corrosive as it is finite. A wheel will gather some oil, and then it's gone, and you need to dig another one.

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#338
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I asked why they weren't prepared on Friday. What, exactly, do you expect them do to "prepare"? Friday they had more time to unload the contracts, and today they have less.

How to prepare: Sell futures on Friday, buy today (to close out the position). Profit from the predictable price difference.

Was it predictable tho?

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#339
post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is why the sudden move today? Did the longs think they had a place to put the oil on Friday but found out over the weekend they had no place to put it? Just seems like you would know what to do with the oil on Friday. Note this is not a rhetorical question, I would sincerely like an answer.

By definition all open futures contracts have to either a) be Physically delivered Or b) be closed (remember that for futures contracts there is someone on each side (prepared to deliver 1,000 bbl and prepared to receive 1,000 bbl) Now if you are a financial participant you need to close out your position as you are not in a position to either deliver/receive physical oil - so you need to essentially pay whatever it…

This isn't true for all contracts. For example, gold contracts are/can be settled for cash. I remember during the Great Recession talks about gold conspiracies and that gold futures contracts can be forced settled in cash instead of physical delivery. I'm not sure if that's true or if that's part of the futures contract, though.

Re: Oil plunges below zero for first time with May contract ending

#340

“ The upcoming May contract’s expiry means traders are shifting their positions to June as they try to avoid taking deliveries of cargoes because of the lack of space to store them. That has opened up an unprecedented discount of more than $10 between the two nearest contracts. This situation—in which the price of the June contract is far above that of the May one—apparently delights in the name “super contango.” Peo…

> People put a price on oil—they think it has value and want to own it at that value—but they also put a price on not having it now, and the latter price is quite high relative to the former.

The price knows where it is because where it isn't.

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