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A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

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Re: A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

#141
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My impression is, if you compare health care costs across various wealthy countries, it's pretty clear that socialised health care is cheaper than privatised health care. Netherland has universal but privatised healthcare, and has one of the most expensive health care systems in Europe, costing more than half that of the American health care system. And it's not particularly better than the more socialised healthcare…

> it's pretty clear that socialised health care is cheaper than privatised health care Causation goes the other way. If your healthcare is cheap, you might as well socialize it, and it will mostly be OKish; if it's too expensive (as in the U.S.) you have no chance of running a satisfactory socialized system. Switzerland has largely private healthcare and mandatory ("universal") health insurance, but its costs are not…

> "Causation goes the other way. If your healthcare is cheap, you might as well socialize it, and it will mostly be OKish; if it's too expensive (as in the U.S.) you have no chance of running a satisfactory socialized system."

I see no reason why it would work that way.

I mean, switching the US to a completely socialised system is certainly going to be a hell of a task, and even Medicare is way more expensive than it should be, but that's also because it's required by law to be expensive; Medicare is not allowed to negotiate lower prices, which throws away the primary advantage of a socialised system. But from what I understand, Medicare is still generally cheaper than privatised healthcare for the same treatment (though more expensive per patient because it insures only older people).

"Switzerland has largely private healthcare and mandatory ("universal") health insurance, but its costs are not too high despite it being a comparatively small country with inherently higher costs of providing such services."

The only graph I could find showed Swiss healthcare being even more expensive per capita than Dutch healthcare. This seems to confirm my suspicion that a privatised is generally more expensive.

Re: A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

#142
Most countries already have programs to prevent people from starving or freezing to death and those countries also tend to have elaborate health care programs, and provisions for those not able to work. Even the US has programs like this in most states though you could argue that compared to other countries they are a combination of expensive, inefficient, and ineffective.

Basic income is formalizing the status quo that there's a minimum standard for all that basically translates into everybody receiving those same guarantees but simply with less bureaucracy & moralistic BS around it. Basically it gets rid off or vastly simplifies the business of collecting and handing out social security insurances and different types of benefits. The cost for this in some countries actually rivals the benefits handed out. E.g. unemployment benefit programs have amazing amounts of bureaucracy associated in many countries.

For those who work, what changes is that part of their income now comes from basic income and they pay taxes over the rest. For their employers, they pay less salary and have less bureaucracy around things like insurance programs and social security (all taken care off). Also things like minimum incomes go away: they pay market prices for what somebody does for them. State pensions, unemployment benefits, sick leave compensation, etc. all basically fold into this basic income. If you want more, you work and pay for extra insurances yourself. If you don't, basic income is there for you.

For those that are not part of the labor market, i.e. approaching (or already over) 50% of the population in many countries, what changes is that their life becomes a lot simpler. Either they are happy enough to get by on basic income or they secure some additional source of income. Either way, we're already paying for their health care, housing, and food as as society. It's a much less radical change than people think.

IMHO this could actually unlock the labor market in lots of countries. There are a lot of weird rules around unemployment that actually make it unattractive or hard for people to work. E.g. people close to their retirement age are expensive to fire and therefore unattractive to hire in lots of countries. People on benefits are actually would risk losing their benefits if they take some job on the side. So, they don't work until they find something "proper", which for some never happens.

Of course this kind of debate always raises the question "who pays for this?". The people that ask this never look at the other side of the debate: how much do we save by eliminating and dismantling the byzantine bureaucracy responsible for the current system. Nobody has actually run that experiment.

Also, we have plenty of taxes left and plenty of wiggle room with things like VAT, fuel tax, profit tax and income tax. It boils down to a quite simple formula: total cost = X*#people. If you have say 17M+ people (NL, my home country) and assume 500 EURO per person, the total cost would be about 100 billion/year for absolutely everyone. Sounds like a lot but as part of the GDP (around 900 billion) it's not that bad and the that's completely ignoring the fact that this would make hiring people lower risk and lower cost for all companies; which tends to do wonders for their profitability (and thus profit taxes). The cumulative budget for existing programs in NL is actually similar to this.

Sadly, doing this is not feasible not for economical reasons but for political/moralistic reasons and ingrained (wrong/naieve) assumptions that many people have about how economies work (e.g. that they are balanced and circular). It's simply too radical for a majority. Even socialist/communist countries never went there and in fact had a lot of moralism and ideals around the notion of labor with the state actively trying to control who was allowed to do what and for how much.

Re: A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

#143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typical UBI proposals are "means tested" in the form of a "negative" income tax (NIT), or as we call it nowadays, a refundable tax credit. If you make 0 taxable income, you get a "full" UBI payment. Then some percentage of your earned income (typically 60% or so) is clawed back from the UBI, until the break even point is reached where you get nothing as UBI, but also no further earned income is clawed back. This give…

60% is absurd. That’s effectively a 60% income tax on the bottom bracket and will certainly decentivize work. I’ve only seen such a number suggested by South African UBI proponents.

It will disincentivize work to some extent, among a comparative minority of UBI recipients. But the flip side is that by keeping the break-even point at a reasonable level and not pushing it too high, you actively slash costs for the program as a whole. The effect of having moderately-high clawbacks at the low end ripples upward, saving a comparable disincentive for every income above the breakeven point. This is a key insight about non-linear income taxation which is borne out by computer modeling of the "optimal" (utility-maximizing) tax rate structure, and economists who are knowledgeable about the subject do agree on this. It's not really controversial.

Re: A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear this a lot but in reading Paine’s writings, I can only find ideas somewhat similar to Social Security payments for elderly people. I have not been able to find anything in Paine’s writings that is synonymous with the concept of UBI. I’m not saying it isn’t in there somewhere, just that I haven’t found it. Would you mind citing specifically where you found this information?

In Agrarian Justice he proposes to “ create a national fund, out of which there shall be paid to every person, when arrived at the age of twenty-one years, the sum of fifteen pounds sterling, as a compensation in part, for the loss of his or her natural inheritance, by the introduction of the system of landed property” He also makes it very clear that this isn’t some form of charity to help people. But rather about j…

Wait -- so did I misunderstand? Is this more like reparations to native americans or slaves? I'm confused.

Re: A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

#145
post #21

Once we implement UBI, what's the argument against doubling it?

> "Once we implement UBI, what's the argument against doubling it?"

Nothing. There's a reason the US Social Security program is one of the so-called the "third rail(s) of politics" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_rail_of_politics). Once a UBI program is started, the UBI receiving population will just keep voting for politicians that keep raising it and raising it ... until the system collapses. Already, most young people entering the workforce today expect to get nothing from the Social Security program when they reach retirement age despite paying quite a bit into it. And yet we want to repeat this with UBI?

Re: A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

#146
post #89
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What constitutes 'basic necessity' changes every year. Is a car a basic necessity? What about a mobile? Broadband? Netflix/Cable wouldn't be an obvious choice but many will argue it is. Washing machine? What about food delivery for those over 55? You know those 3-wheel motorized chairs, between scooters and wheelchairs for the elderly ... they are definitely a 'necessity' for some but really quite 'in between' for ot…

If we could afford to live in a world where everyone was given $5000/mth, would we want such a world? (where work was optional) I think yes. ...can we afford that? At this point, probably not. But is it something to strive for? I think it is eventually possible to get the costs of providing basic needs to everyone (say, through automation) to the point where they can be easily covered by taxes on those who choose to…

I do not think such a world is desirable. It would just distort markets. Everyone will charge more for everything, starting with rent.

If you cover the basic needs of "everyone", the number of everyone will just go up and up and up until you can't cover the basic needs anymore. Do you think earth can sustain infinite people? There has to be a mechanism preventing people to increase their number to unsustainable levels. The current world already does a really bad job at that, I don't think we have to make this worse.

I think the most desirable world is one with a build-in pruning process, where only the most adapted people survive, thus preventing the number of humans to reach unsustainable levels, while still progressing to greater heights. After all, if you just put a cap on the number of children people are allowed to have you're just going to stagnate. It's better to have a large pool to select the fittest and prune the rest, resulting in the same number at the end, only with much better quality. Historically, war was such a pruning process. But I don't think it was an especially good one.

Re: A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

#147
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can be structured as an income tax that starts out negative. Everyone of working age is paid the UBI, which is designed to act as the safety net. This frees up a ton of overhead as means-testing, benefit fraud, etc. all goes away. Then when you get a job, the UBI starts to reduce, at a rate LESS than the money you are earning. So if you're paid $1000 monthly UBI, and get a $1000 job, it might reduce UBI by $500. S…

Working 40h weeks for an extra $500 isn't a good deal. As long as I can sustain life without working, not working at all will always beat getting some scraps. If there aren't repercussions for not working, than why bother?

The idea is that you'd be able to sustain if you lived _very_ frugally. Generally, people don't enjoy that. They like to eat the nice food, go to places, buy things, all of which wouldn't be covered by the UBI.

Re: A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

#148
post #113
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What constitutes 'basic necessity' changes every year. Is a car a basic necessity? What about a mobile? Broadband? Netflix/Cable wouldn't be an obvious choice but many will argue it is. Washing machine? What about food delivery for those over 55? You know those 3-wheel motorized chairs, between scooters and wheelchairs for the elderly ... they are definitely a 'necessity' for some but really quite 'in between' for ot…

> The next generations' youth will make arguments about the 'inhumanity' of such and such. They may have a point, but we will be the 'old timers' thinking they are mostly ridiculous and actually voting. For one, we are likely to hit post-scarcity singularity on our current technological trajectory before generations of UBI queens can cripple capitalism with washing machine demands. For two, there is no real "wrong" a…

Post-scarcity doesn't solve the fundamental problem of earth being unable to sustain infinite humans. Even with infinite resources, there will still be finite space.

Historically, human populations that did grow beyond sustainable had to starve to death back to sustainable. If you prevent this by giving everyone free food, that's not really a good thing.

Re: A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

#149
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Working 40h weeks for an extra $500 isn't a good deal. As long as I can sustain life without working, not working at all will always beat getting some scraps. If there aren't repercussions for not working, than why bother?

The idea is that you'd be able to sustain if you lived _very_ frugally. Generally, people don't enjoy that. They like to eat the nice food, go to places, buy things, all of which wouldn't be covered by the UBI.

I lived my entire live frugally. I enjoy that. Working 40h weeks on the other hand isn't all that fun, even though now I have thousands of dollars to blow every month. If I had the choice I'd live frugally and not work.

I'm eating the same thing everyday, like to stay at home and hate to buy things. I'm working because I know it's necessary.

Re: A Genealogy of the Idea of Universal Basic Income

#150
post #148
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The next generations' youth will make arguments about the 'inhumanity' of such and such. They may have a point, but we will be the 'old timers' thinking they are mostly ridiculous and actually voting. For one, we are likely to hit post-scarcity singularity on our current technological trajectory before generations of UBI queens can cripple capitalism with washing machine demands. For two, there is no real "wrong" a…

Post-scarcity doesn't solve the fundamental problem of earth being unable to sustain infinite humans. Even with infinite resources, there will still be finite space. Historically, human populations that did grow beyond sustainable had to starve to death back to sustainable. If you prevent this by giving everyone free food, that's not really a good thing.

Yes, but this is solvable by limiting the number of children per person.
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