Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success • Hacker News Board

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#101

Post by pcr910303 » Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 5:31 PM UTC

modernyogihippy wrote: post #96

pcr910303 wrote: post #91

Very surprised to find out country (city) in HN's top page! For people who are interested in current Korea's situation: There were 18 new cases two days ago, and 8 new cases yesterday. The number of new cases have been consistently falling since April 14th. 'Intense social distancing' was stopped yesterday (April 19th), and the Korean government is planning to drop the 'social distancing' policy on May 5th. Schools a…

What about international flights? Are airports in SK still closed? I'm pretty sure they will have to limit traffic into and out of the country despite easing social distancing. Otherwise, won't there be a new wave of infections when they let 'outsiders' back in from places where the virus is still running rampant?

> What about international flights? Are airports in SK still closed? I'm pretty sure they will have to limit traffic into and out of the country despite easing social distancing.

Airports in South Korea has never been closed - South Korea has never banned anyone coming & going outside. A quarantine of two weeks became mandatory since April 1th, but South Korea has never closed Airports or has done a lockdown.

> Otherwise, won't there be a new wave of infections when they let 'outsiders' back in from places where the virus is still running rampant?

Definitely that's a concern, 5 out of 8 new cases yesterday were people that were infected from foreign countries. However since South Korea has never closed it's airports, people generally think it's controllable(like it always was).

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#102

Post by gedy » Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 5:32 PM UTC

James_Henry wrote: post #56

WillPostForFood wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article and discussions about Korea seem to mainly revolve around testing and contact tracing. These are complex and expensive, and substantially more difficult to manage in a country like the US which is 7x the population, and is somewhat decentralized (50 states). Meanwhile, the on the street observations in the article are: masks, masks, masks. Masks are cheap and easy. So let's start with masks, masks, masks…

Also, they are very meticulous about taking their shoes off before going into a home and about keeping their floors clean. Which may be more important, especially in dense locations, than we might be realizing. A Chinese study found that the virus was probably being moved around by people's shoes https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article

I’m confused/concerned by this as the US authorities are emphasizing that this is a respiratory virus and no need to be concerned about food transmission, etc

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#103

Post by symplee » Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 5:32 PM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #79

Meanwhile, the US still has very little testing capacity, with no signs of if and when that will change. One problem with the death of journalism is that no one is even reporting on this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#Virus_testing...

Shows the following stats:

  Country--------Date-----Tests-------Positive----%-------Tests/mil ppl----Positive/mil ppl
  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  United States--18 Apr---3,700,388---720,747-----19.5----11,273-----------2,196
  Russia---------19 Apr---1,949,813---42,853------2.2-----13,287-----------292
  Germany--------15 Apr---1,728,357---132,766-----7.7-----20,786-----------1,597
  Italy----------19 Apr---1,356,541---178,972-----13.2----22,474-----------2,965
  Spain----------13 Apr---930,230-----169,496-----18.2----19,905-----------3,627

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#104

Post by socialdemocrat » Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 5:33 PM UTC

WillPostForFood wrote: post #46

teapourer wrote: post #27

To be clear, the Korean government officially still recommends social distancing. They are especially worried about the family picnics mentioned in the article, and have officially closed many public parks in response. To repeat: don't take this as a sign that Korea believes it has successfully managed the outbreak.

The article and discussions about Korea seem to mainly revolve around testing and contact tracing. These are complex and expensive, and substantially more difficult to manage in a country like the US which is 7x the population, and is somewhat decentralized (50 states). Meanwhile, the on the street observations in the article are: masks, masks, masks. Masks are cheap and easy. So let's start with masks, masks, masks…

I think in principle hindering spread is much EASIER in the US than in South Korea.

The US has a huge advantage in its low population density and spread out population. That slows down the spread of disease. Not to mention the advantage of a car centric society. In the US you can travel from A to B without exposing yourself to other people. Americans also mostly live in separate houses further reducing the risk of the spread of disease.

All through human history population density has been a major contributor to pandemics. One can see e.g. how New York is much harder hit than LA. LA is low density housing and almost no public transport.

Europe and Asia in contrast is almost all more like New York. IMHO that makes the success in South Korea more impressive not LESS.

We see the same in Europe. The densely populated countries tend to be harder hit. E.g. Denmark has enacted equally strict measures as Norway sooner yet has twice the number of deaths. Norway has an advantage in being more like the US, having a relatively spread out population.

I don't think the decentralization is the main problem at the moment. Germany is also decentralized. It is a federal republic like the US. However unlike the US, Germany has a cooperation oriented leadership where the central government listens to the leaders of the states and coordinate with them.

In the US it seems to be all postering and blame game. It is very hard to evaluate the US results without taking into account its current disastrous leadership. The US is lead by a reality star. Germany is led by a former scientific researcher with a PhD in quantum chemistry. Should we be surprised why Germany is having the best results in the West, while the US is rapidly approaching the worst results?

What saves the US is that there are numerous governors who are good leaders and to some degree counterweight the absurdity of the federal government.

But seriously in what country does the President encourage riot in provinces of their own country? Looking from abroad the US is looking increasingly like a Banana republic. I how things work out fine for everybody. But I am worried.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#105

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 5:34 PM UTC

gedy wrote: post #102

James_Henry wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, they are very meticulous about taking their shoes off before going into a home and about keeping their floors clean. Which may be more important, especially in dense locations, than we might be realizing. A Chinese study found that the virus was probably being moved around by people's shoes https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article

I’m confused/concerned by this as the US authorities are emphasizing that this is a respiratory virus and no need to be concerned about food transmission, etc

The best evidence is that there's no need for the average person to be concerned about food transmission. The hospital context is very different; transmission routes that are normally negligible can start to matter when you have 200 people coughing coronavirus into the air.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#106

Post by socialdemocrat » Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 5:37 PM UTC

matwood wrote: post #94

BurningFrog wrote: post #79

Meanwhile, the US still has very little testing capacity, with no signs of if and when that will change. One problem with the death of journalism is that no one is even reporting on this.

On a per capita basis yes, but the US has done more tests than any other country. Once the US doubles testing capacity again it will be on par with other large countries.

I guess after their bandits have stolen testing kids destined to other countries just like the bribed people with suitcases of dollars get masks enroute to various European countries.

I am hoping for the best for the US, but I am quite offended by how the US is scrambling to undo its own mistakes by steamrolling everybody else.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#107

Post by thowfaraway » Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 5:39 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #70

Reason077 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “masks, masks, masks.” Exactly. I wonder how many lives could have been saved if we (western/European countries) didn’t have such an aversion to wearing face masks, even in a time of pandemic?

No one has done a controlled study on this, so no one really knows. It ranges from zero to many. The reason government and medical signaling on the subject has been so mixed is that it isn’t apparent they are very effective, especially the jury rigged cloth masks that people are using.

There are many controlled studies on other respiratory disease like the flu, and some on other corona viruses like SARS the show high efficacy of masks. If you doubt the science, fall back on common sense. A respiratory barrier is going to have some value in diminishing the ability of a respiratory virus to spread.

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1

The reason government and medical signaling on the subject has been so mixed is that it isn’t apparent they are very effective

The reason signaling has been mixed is because they were trying to preserve supply for medical professionals. The reason that medical professionals need them is because they work.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#108

Post by cma » Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 5:40 PM UTC

usaar333 wrote: post #76

ajross wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iceland was able to do it Iceland's per capita new infection rate peaked higher than basically any nation in the world, and while it's dropping comparatively rapidly it hasn't reached a stable baseline yet. I don't think this is a good example at all. While it's clear their lockdown "worked" (in the sense of recovering them from a disastrous peak), I think it's still very much an open question as to whether their t…

case rate, not infection rate. They are one of the few nations in the world that are credibly even close to catching half their infections. The US is probably missing 90% ( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055582v... ) To that point, their death rate is lower than the Bay Area. To a second point, Iceland is under a very weak lockdown, if you can even call it that. Their elementary schools remain o…

Through mass testing they already avoided one nursing home hit, and haven’t had a single hit. If they do, their fatality rate could quadruple because of how small the numbers are we are looking at there.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#109

Post by socialdemocrat » Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 5:44 PM UTC

dominotw wrote: post #45

how was south korea able to scale up their testing so fast. Where did the extra testing capacity come from. I've been really curious about this but haven't seen any good answers so far.

South Korea has far superior legal framework for pandemic compared to most western countries. As soon as there is a sign of a beginning pandemic, the medical professionals automatically get a massive increase in power and can start enacting lots of policies regardless of what politician think.

They where probably better prepared as well. Preparedness varies a lot. In the Nordic region where I am from the Finns have done better than the rest of us because they are a prepper nation. They constantly prepare for the worst.

Finland has enormous bunkers under their cities that can hold the whole population with air filters, water, food stock piles etc. Finland has massive stock piles of medical equipment, even stockpiles of raw materials for making ammunition medication etc.

In many ways I think it has paid for them to not be NATO members. They know they are alone and have to take care of themselves just like in the winter war against the Soviet Union.

In Norway I think we place too much faith in NATO. If it was up to me I would get the hell out and focus on self reliance instead.

Re: Seoul's full cafes, Apple store lines show mass testing success

#110

Post by BurningFrog » Sun, Apr 19, 2020, 5:47 PM UTC

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #88

BurningFrog wrote: post #79

Meanwhile, the US still has very little testing capacity, with no signs of if and when that will change. One problem with the death of journalism is that no one is even reporting on this.

Lots of people are reporting on this - I'm not sure where you're looking that you're missing it.

It's entirely possible I have missed something, and I'd love some links!

I'm especially looking for reporting on why it's so slow, what the bottlenecks are, and who's responsible.

Even if there is some good reporting out there, I think this should me one of the main news items in a healthy society.

I have seen reporting on the bungling of the initial testing rollout, like this one: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/contamination-...