Does anyone else wonder from where did they cite the costs in Table 1? I can imagine the reduction in accidents and fatalities and believe their reported numbers with the "significant" p-values but there is no information on how did they arrive at the reported costs. You had one job!
California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
131–140 of 196 posts
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#132I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.
Some deaths will decrease, others will go up. Treatments for other diseases are now being put off
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMms2009984?query=RP
Cancers are not getting diagnosed early almost 50% in recent weeks than usual. That means worse stages at diagnosis and worse prognosis
https://www.iknl.nl/nieuws/2020/door-de-covid-19-crisis-zijn...
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
That death rate is skewed. A COVID death is counted if the person had the infection and died, even if a co-morbidity would have killed them anyway. A person that has no symptoms or mild symptoms isn’t necessary known to have had the disease, which means there is a significantly lower death rate because the known infections is what’s used for the death rate, not the actual number of infections. A newly released study…
That doesn't matter much when there is no strong evidence that to have had COVID guarantees immunity[0] because being asymptomatic now doesn't mean they will be asymptomatic in the future, just South Korea has reported 116 people re-infected[0] [0] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/17/no-evidence-peop... [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/200413110301074.html
It's much more likely those in Korea received false negative test results earlier on. Let's say that was the case, though, 116 out of 2.5 million rounds to zero and is of no practical consequence to herd immunity or the potential effectiveness of a vaccine. All we need for either is 60-70% of people ending up with immunity -- so far your number is 0.0046%
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#134Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is the german study of germany? Because the ratio of recoveries to deaths is way higher in germany than the united states. The risk of covid varries a lot by geographic region and usa seems like one of the worst. > It's also worth calling out the flu has killed 2X as many people as COVID has to date this flu season. A bad flu season in the US kills about 60K people each year. So far. The flu season started before the…
> Because the ratio of recoveries to deaths is way higher in germany than the united states. The risk of covid varries a lot by geographic region and usa seems like one of the worst. You'd need to be a lot more specific. Which state are you referring to? Most US states are safer on Covid mortality than Germany. California + Texas + Florida (the three largest by population) combined have the same population as Germany…
Seems to me that according our current knowledge, all those numbers will end up at roughly the same number as time goes on. (Assuming you're counting the same thing.)
Lower, if your population is young and healthy. Much lower, if you miraculously stop community spread until medication is available.
Higher, if the disease spreads too fast and hospitals are overloaded, or if your population is old or unhealthy.
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it. I worry about Covid-19.
Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…
> It's also worth calling out the flu has killed 2X as many people as COVID has to date this flu season.
No, it hasn't.
> A bad flu season in the US kills about 60K people each year.
You're not counting covid-19 deaths and flu deaths using the same methods so you can't compare yet. The method you're using for flu is inclusive and will tend to overcount. The method you're using for covid-19 deaths excludes some deaths and we know it's undercounting covid-19 deaths.
When we get the figures for care home and nursing home deaths included we'll see large increases in covid-19 deaths.
It is dishonest to point to a severe flu season and talk about "flu killing 60k people per year". The range is 12k to 61k. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
Funny you say accidents are rare. The death toll from covid in the US has just barely surpassed the amount of car related deaths per year in the US.
in 2 months. 1/6 of a year.
We don't know how many people covid19 would kill if everyone were infected. Given the data we have now about covid19, cars probably killed more people in the last 15 years than covid19 will kill people in the next 15 years.
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#137Earlier quoted context omitted.
Aside from even the fatalities, the math still is that 50% of LA is presently unemployed. While some articles are somehow gleeful in the face of this calamitous reality, there is no where near a net balance. The Fed has spent at least $2 trillion dollars on this already. Probably closer to $6 trillion by the time we are done. It is an unimaginably large cost to shut things down relative to any possible benefit.
Looking at the ~40k US deaths and the $6T spent, we’ve spent $150 million in stimulus per death. Looking at the non-spending costs of lost productivity, opportunity costs, etc., it’s a staggering number.
Those 6T haven't been spent, right? Those are funds committed towards "stimulus programs" (whatever that means in the end) that will run over months or years. It's still a staggering number, staggering also in comparison to other world economies. That is probably the intended effect.
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've had a similar experience, though I have no idea if the runners I'm seeing makes up for less activity throughout the day, gyms being closed, etc. It's possible that the 4% of people who go to the gym regularly are now running outside, and everyone else is even less active. Also, heart disease and type-2 diabetes are years in the making, and a month of moderate exercise and better eating won't make up for it overn…
Takes 21 days to form a new habit, so there's every chance they'll continue!
No, there is not. When the circumstances change, habits change too.
When people go back to work, they will have less time at their hands. They will have to adjust to commuting again, taking kids to/from school again, being somewhere at time again.
All of that will cut into their exercise time. All the people who are exercising out of boredom now will stop exercising out of being tired of doing lot of things again.
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
Surely the important number is per lives saved rather than per lives lost?
Costs always matter. It’s rarely said in polite company but it’s true. I suppose it’s impossible to know if we’re striking the right balance at the moment, but it’ll be interesting to see the analysis after it’s over.
I’m criticising the denominator, not the numerator.
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
Takes 21 days to form a new habit, so there's every chance they'll continue!
No, there is not. When the circumstances change, habits change too. When people go back to work, they will have less time at their hands. They will have to adjust to commuting again, taking kids to/from school again, being somewhere at time again. All of that will cut into their exercise time. All the people who are exercising out of boredom now will stop exercising out of being tired of doing lot of things again.
It's far from given that a return to pre-outbreak commuting patterns will be the norm.