>due to COVID19
It is more accurate to say due to the shutdown.
California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
101–110 of 196 posts
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
All of those are great but COVID has done that in weeks. 38,000 people die every year in crashes on US roads. COVID deaths are at 39k and the first COVID-19 death was on Feb. 29. 50 days ago.
I actually dedicated much of my comment to addressing that, specifically pointing out that COVID represents a lifetime risk that's been front-loaded and so it's fair to compare COVID's infection fatality rate to your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident. I also called out explicitly that COVID has been front-loaded. Also, it's not a fair comparison between the flu and COVID because the flu has that unfortunate fe…
You also have to take into account the uncertainty in your risk evaluation. The fatality rate is largely unknown so it's a bit deceptive to quote numbers like 0.37% as if it could be measure up to the second decimal. The German study probably came with error bars that were larger than that. For the age group 50-59, maybe it's 1.3% according to NY state (for both males and females so if the person you responds to is male, it's higher), but it could very well be 2% (or 0.5%) without it being surprising.
There is also a big assumption in considering the risk to be front-loaded. This is not the flu, but it could very well come back next year or in ten years in a different form. We just don't know yet this virus with enough confidence to do this assumption. Anyway, it is a bit strange that the ability for this virus to mutate next year would impact the risk of dying by going out tomorrow which, I think, the person your responded to was thinking about.
Finally, you're saying the flu deaths this year is double what the coronavirus has done, but again the uncertainty is high: the CDC estimation for the flu is from 24,000 to 62,000 deaths this season [1]. So it could be the double, but it could be actually lower. Let's not do things like chosing the estimate that better suits the argument without saying it's a high end of the estimate.
[1] - https://www.kcrg.com/content/news/Americas-2019-2020-flu-sea...
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it. I worry about Covid-19.
Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…
A 1% chance of death that’s evenly distributed across 80 years is dramatically less impactful to one’s expected quantity of life than a 1% chance of death that happens immediately.
Additionally, I’d note that nearly all higher income individuals take steps to reduce their auto death risks including buying safer vehicles, living closer to work, and using professional drivers when drunk or otherwise impaired.
As for your final paragraph, it is wholly unreasonable to imply that covid (which is killing thousands of Americans per day despite a massive distancing effort) is less serious than the flu (which has persisted over a much longer period of time and which was not subject to special responses).
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…
Is the german study of germany? Because the ratio of recoveries to deaths is way higher in germany than the united states. The risk of covid varries a lot by geographic region and usa seems like one of the worst. > It's also worth calling out the flu has killed 2X as many people as COVID has to date this flu season. A bad flu season in the US kills about 60K people each year. So far. The flu season started before the…
> Because the ratio of recoveries to deaths is way higher in germany than the united states. The risk of covid varries a lot by geographic region and usa seems like one of the worst.
You'd need to be a lot more specific. Which state are you referring to? Most US states are safer on Covid mortality than Germany. California + Texas + Florida (the three largest by population) combined have the same population as Germany with half the per capita death rate.
It would be like combining Italy, Spain and Greece and pretending they're all seeing the same situation.
Germany has a per 100k mortality rate of 5 for Covid.
Texas has a per 100k mortality rate of 1.5. California is 2.7. Florida is 3.6.
Germany has 89m people with 4,538 deaths. Texas has 29m people with a mere 453 deaths.
California + Texas + Florida = 89m people, with 2,290 deaths.
More large states? Ohio is 3.9. Virginia is 3. Arizona is 2.4. North Carolina is 1.5.
So as you can see, most of the US in fact doesn't look like New York, New Jersey, Michigan. Just like most of Europe doesn't look like Spain.
More countries in Europe for comparison (per 100k rate):
Belgium 47, Spain 44, Italy 38, France 29, Britain 23, Netherlands 21, Switzerland 16, Sweden 15, Ireland 11.6, Portugal 6.7, Denmark 6, Austria 5, Norway 3, Finland 1.6.
The three largest US states combined have a rate of 2.5.
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
All of those are great but COVID has done that in weeks. 38,000 people die every year in crashes on US roads. COVID deaths are at 39k and the first COVID-19 death was on Feb. 29. 50 days ago.
I actually dedicated much of my comment to addressing that, specifically pointing out that COVID represents a lifetime risk that's been front-loaded and so it's fair to compare COVID's infection fatality rate to your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident. I also called out explicitly that COVID has been front-loaded. Also, it's not a fair comparison between the flu and COVID because the flu has that unfortunate fe…
[deleted]
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#106I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.
For NYC the answer is “no”.
4,500 ≈ average deaths per month in 2017 [1]
6,125 = confirmed COVID-19 deaths from 2020-04-01 through 2020-04-15 [2]
[1]: https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/vital_statistics/2017/t...
[2]: https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/blob/master/ca...
Note that 6,125 doesn’t include COVID-19 deaths or non COVID-19 deaths, and is for the first half of April only.
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#107Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it. I worry about Covid-19.
Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…
You are not taking at all into account the likelihood of suffering permanent life-long damage to lungs, hearth, kidneys and brain[0] which makes you predisposed to develop other painful (and sometimes fatal) conditions.
Also there is not enough evidence to believe COVID happens only once per person[1]
South Korea, the country with the best testing so far has reported 116 people re-infected[2], so there IS evidence about it happening.
[0] https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/04/17/organ-dam...
[1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/17/no-evidence-peop...
[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/200413110301074.html
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in... About 35k people die from car crashes in the U.S. each year (or at least they did). That has always served as my personal benchmark for risks: if I'm more likely to die in a car crash, I don't worry about it. I worry about Covid-19.
Funny you should mention that. You have approximately a 1% lifetime risk of dying from a car crash in the US [1], and your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany (and it overwhelmingly only kills the old and sick). Given you develop immunity after (no evidence you don't yet), that represents a lifetime risk too. Which means, your lifetime risk of dying in a car accident remain…
>your risk of dying from a COVID infection is 0.37% per the latest study from Germany
1.: Study is not complete yet and is of 500 people in the hardest hit area in Germany[1]
2.: Why do you compare deadly car accidents in the US with COVID-19 mortality rate in Germany?
3.: COVID-19 Mortality rate in the US is 5.3%[2]
[1] https://www.tagesschau.de/regional/nordrheinwestfalen/corona...
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#109> Saving State $40 Million Per Day During Shelter-In-Place
!!!!
Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
Really? Maybe my local experience is an outlier but I've seen significantly more people cooking meals at home and exercising. The number of daily runners in my neighborhood has easily increased 10x. Are gluttony and sedentary lifestyles not the major contributors for type-2 diabetes and heart disease?
> The number of daily runners in my neighborhood has easily increased 10x. Those are probably largely people that probably did just as much activity somewhere other than their home neighborhood (physical-but-nonessential labor, gym, athletic hobbies that rely on now-closed businesses, etc.)
I went running the other day for the first time in over a year, just as a way of getting fresh air. And before that I'd already lost 8 pounds since quarantine started, just because I haven't been eating restaurant-portions.