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It’s Time to Build

a16z.com

611–620 of 1001 posts

Re: It’s Time to Build

#611
It’s Time to Think.

This is a complex question, and the answer is not “we are a weak and lazy civilisation, if only we’d build build build instead”.

We’ve put the world’s mask factories where it made the most economic sense, and anyone willing to go out on a limb and move production to where it makes the least economic sense will be crushed by fellow capitalists.

I sometimes wonder if nerds are subconsciously benchmarking our technological and economic progress against science fiction staples, which are great for firing the imagination but are a monumentally poor benchmark of actual progress. It’s very easy to utter the words “let’s colonise the galaxy”, but the logistical and technical barriers are formidable: in reality this undertaking is impossible for our civilisation, because we lack the knowledge that might allow us to do it (assuming that it is possible).

Commercial innovation is a very thin crust on top of a large body of fundamental research, which is required to make things like economic supersonic flight a reality for millions. So before we can “build build build”, we must invest in fundamental research.

Re: It’s Time to Build

#612
post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, law is not code and it’s very important that it’s not code. Law is subject to interpretation, and that’s great. When bugs are discovered in law, they can be retroactively corrected.

Are bugs discovered and corrected faster today in law or in code?

Sure, but is immutability more important in law or in code? Updating a smart contract seems to be as tedious as changing a law.

Re: It’s Time to Build

#613
post #487

This was one of the best posts I've ever read. Thinking about printing it out and framing it. It's more inspirational than anything I've read, and it articulates the elephant-in-the-room problem we all know but aren't talking about. No one is innovating anymore. Everyone copies each other. Even in the YC crowd, every other thing is a dumb CRUD app or AI snake oil project that has been rehashed since the 80s. Where's…

Thanks for the post! Why be entrepreneurial if you can just put your money in the SP500 and watch it go to the moon thanks to unlimited QE? The current paradigm is being kept alive by the Gov with all tools it has at its disposal (QE, bailouts), while the right move would be to let it go bust and push the restart button. Making space for a new generation of entrepreneurs to pick up the pieces.

Maybe like many things the OPs post is an indirect consequence of 2008 bailouts and QE.

Zombies were propped up so the only thing entrepreneurs could go after was CRUD apps and adtech.

If banks, airlines, manufacturing were forced to face that reset then entrepreneurs and startups could have a go at genuinely reinventing those industries.

Re: It’s Time to Build

#614

Thing is, no society was prepared. You may name Singapore and Japan but after initial success, cases are now spiking there. You may name South Korea and that will be fair, but their success is a continuation of their failures (effectively they are have a techonology-driven totalitarianism, most Westerners would hate to live there, and this results in more pressing problems than there are in any Western country). Even…

The US was especially unprepared. Compare NYC to anywhere else. We had months to build a testing infrastructure like South Korea, we did practically nothing, and now thousands have died. Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, etc., all did better than we did with worse situations. Government competency matters.

Re: It’s Time to Build

#615
post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. San Francisco was the first to act, and put pressure on the rest of the Bay Area to follow, and subsequently California. If SF didn't act first, who knows how long it would have taken for other politicians to have the "courage" to put in such draconian, but effective, measures. As far as I'm concerned, London Breed saved tens of thousands of lives in the Bay Area alone, and I hate her politics.

The time to act was in January. It’s good that they acted first but it was still too late.

They did act in January.

SF’s emergency operations center was active and running. The CDC was still making it illegal for anyone to test outside some unreliable and faulty test kits.

The fact that our federal government was obstructing anyone’s ability to build up a testing apparatus is very much the responsibility of the incompetent management of this crisis by the federal government.

Re: It’s Time to Build

#616
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly not all of them, but the German healthcare system has dealt extremely well. There is plenty of testing capacity, and plenty of ICU beds. Thanks to century old unified health insurance laws. Edit: Otto von Bismarck actually instituted the health insurance system of Germany, certainly not a socialist!

The republican stronghold of Texas has one of the lowest covid deaths per capita in the United States, better than even California (which is doing relatively well). Deaths per capita at 16/million is lower than almost anywhere in Western Europe. It's not obvious to me at all you can make a political judgement from covid19.

It's a little more obvious if you compare places with equal exposure (numbers of European and Asian travelers) and density.

Re: It’s Time to Build

#617
The most sorely lacking in self-awareness aspect of his post is that a16z is a primary driver of a flavour economic (and social) neoliberalism that is a 'root cause' of almost everything he lamented.

1) If non-college educated kids had a legit path into the market (like they do in Germany) then surpluses would be more evenly distributed and housing wouldn't be such a problem.

But they don't have path because a) industry won't train and b) the US is an economically liberal place - there is no communitarian impetus (like Japan/Germany) to structure. The US doesn't really care that much about citizen v. non-citizen - the economic benefit in the short term is outsource/insource - there is no consideration for the population.

US Citizens are an externality to the business world.

2) On the college side, the US has already financialized the college race, arguably to a nearly corrupt degree. There are tons of kids going to Uni in the US, many of them ill-prepared, and then will be over-indebted.

3) Silicon Valley VC does not want longer-term risky bets, they want to make short term bits with big near term payouts, with long term outcomes again, irrelevant.

It makes much more sense to invest in something like Twitter/TikTok/SnapChat than most other things in this context.

4) And who exactly built those supersonic planes? Was it VC's? No! It was generally the government, with the impetus of war, specifically WW2 and the Cold War! Literally ARPANET.

5) 'Building here' would entail a coordinated national strategy that is anemic to free-market types they usually can't even contemplate it. It would take something like an economy-destroying epidemic (!) to realize the consequences of their lack of strategic investment at very least in things like specific manufacturing (medical, medicinal) and food production. All of a sudden those farming subsidies start to look a little different!

6) So what issue ties all of Marc's seemingly disparate points together? Why didn't he look deeper at Taiwan, S. Korea, Singapore as examples? What's actually going on there at a more fundamental level that's different from the USA?

I'm not necessarily advocating for some big 'state-managed' anything or huge governmental intervention. But I am certainly advocating for rational and specific nationalist intervention, with a communitarian attitude - or at very least the contemplation of it.

The fact someone so enormously intelligent and influential 'didn't even go there' I feel is because the language is literally lost in North America. They have no idea what it even means. Much like entrepreneurialism, especially 'creative destruction' is a really hard concept for many business circles in Europe to get. It's like a foreign language.

Re: It’s Time to Build

#618
post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The actual first case was at the beginning of January. Receipts please. You are claiming that the timeline of SF matched other countries where deaths started much earlier and went much higher. Are you really making the claim that our hospitals were overlooking a couple hundred people drowning in their own lungs and unable to breath during the month of February? Because that would basically have to have been true if…

It’s only logical. There are typically 90 weekly roundtrip flights operating between SFO and China or Hong Kong. But somehow no one was infected for two months? Lol. What I’m saying is that if the West acted like Taiwan there would be no lockdowns. They acted, they were prepared. Western world was caught with its pants down, including San Francisco. https://sfist.com/2020/04/10/some-scientists-suggest-undetec...

Sure. Let’s learn lessons from Taiwan too that sounds great to me.

(Taiwan activated its health department epidemic operations center on January 20th. SF activated January 21st. If SF had been able to use state and federal powers, we probably would have had a much better shot at avoiding shelter in place.)

Re: It’s Time to Build

#619
post #598

I'm quite sympathetic to a lot of what's in that blog post but... A16Z directly invests gobs of capital, and, indirectly, shapes the outlook of other VCs who follow their investment decisions, and they plow way more money into software/bitcoin than physical companies. Why? Because they are really good at what they do, and they realize that building physical stuff is really hard, and they'd rather invest in areas that…

That's a valid criticism and something that ran through my mind when reading the article. But keep in mind that there's orders of magnitude difference in what they invest vs. the federal government.

According to these 2 articles, it could be around THREE orders of magnitude -- ~4 billion in for them in 2014 vs. ~4 trillion for the federal government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andreessen_Horowitz

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53624

One way to think about it is that they could plow 100% of their money into physical infrastructure, and come up with something like half an aircraft carrier ($8.5 billion according to this article):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nimitz-class_aircraft_carrier

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Looking around a bit more, all of venture capital combined is something like $100 B / year. Which is less than 20% of what's spent by the military in a year, leaving aside all the other federal programs that could produce physical infrastructure.

Apparently, all of VC is also less than half the interest that the federal govt pays on its debt...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/277501/venture-capital-a...

Re: It’s Time to Build

#620
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Getting an answer from a court (is X legal?) takes a long time: at least a few years and several hundred thousand dollars. Far too long to wait before building a business around X. Asking people to build the business first and then find out if it's legal isn't how a society of laws is supposed to work. Fast courts would be a huge benefit to society.

This is exactly how two of the biggest startups of the past 15 years - Airbnb and Uber - were built. Airbnb and Uber built products that were in a legal gray area. Lawmakers are still catching up to them.

Key to their strategy was having deep enough pockets to fight many simultaneous legal and PR battles.
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