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California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

ucdavis.edu

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Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#21

Post by carbocation »

zaroth wrote: post #5

When you say something “saves money” do you think it’s reasonable to require such a statement attest that there is a net savings? If I go on vacation and set my Nest to eco mode, am I saving money? Sure, certainly I may be saving $5 a day in home utilities cost on my $300/day vacation. But that is not to say that said vacation is actually saving me money. It would be accurate to say that vacation may be costing me $2…

I don't think this comment deserves to be downvoted. It seems sensible. Sure, it's mostly sensitive to the phrasing, but careful phrasing matters in matters of finance and politics.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#22

Post by ttul »

carbocation wrote: post #15
mirimir wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. Edit: Sorry. Make that 10-100 times greater.

> Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. $40 million per day = $14.6 billion per year The GDP of California is $2.75 trillion. Your low end estimate of 100x would be a 53% drop in California's GDP, while the 1000x estimate seems impossible.

0.5% of GDP isn’t nothing! Wow!

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#23

Post by 300bps »

mirimir wrote: post #12
aianus wrote: post #6

~$1/resident/day sounds a lot less impressive

Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. Edit: Sorry. Make that 10-100 times greater.

Exactly. Every company in the world could save money on electricity by shutting their data centers down too.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#24

Post by kevingadd »

aianus wrote: post #6

~$1/resident/day sounds a lot less impressive

Interesting to think about what that $1/resident/day in savings could be spent on, though. A small supply of free masks so everyone can protect each other by wearing one when they go out? Discounted public transit rides to work?

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#25

Post by carbocation »

ttul wrote: post #22
carbocation wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. $40 million per day = $14.6 billion per year The GDP of California is $2.75 trillion. Your low end estimate of 100x would be a 53% drop in California's GDP, while the 1000x estimate seems impossible.

0.5% of GDP isn’t nothing! Wow!

> 0.5% of GDP isn’t nothing! Wow!

Are you saying that you disagree that California losing 500% of its GDP seems impossible?

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#26

Post by [deleted] »

carbocation wrote: post #21
zaroth wrote: post #5

When you say something “saves money” do you think it’s reasonable to require such a statement attest that there is a net savings? If I go on vacation and set my Nest to eco mode, am I saving money? Sure, certainly I may be saving $5 a day in home utilities cost on my $300/day vacation. But that is not to say that said vacation is actually saving me money. It would be accurate to say that vacation may be costing me $2…

I don't think this comment deserves to be downvoted. It seems sensible. Sure, it's mostly sensitive to the phrasing, but careful phrasing matters in matters of finance and politics.

[deleted]

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#27

Post by mirimir »

carbocation wrote: post #15
mirimir wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. Edit: Sorry. Make that 10-100 times greater.

> Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. $40 million per day = $14.6 billion per year The GDP of California is $2.75 trillion. Your low end estimate of 100x would be a 53% drop in California's GDP, while the 1000x estimate seems impossible.

I was going from $1 per day per resident. And in retrospect, I was off re income. $100-$1000 per day is reasonable for a middle class worker, but not the average resident.

So OK, make that 10 to 100 times greater.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#28

Post by Talanes »

sieabahlpark wrote: post #3

I mean, sure but how much is it losing from loss of revenue? I.e. sales tax? Bad title and bad article.

The scope that you seem to be expecting isn't possible right now. Anything that's attempting to account for every amount of money lost or saved will end up missing something. The title contains itself to the scope that it is accurate at.

Trusting the reader to intuitively know California is losing massive amounts of money from other things seems reasonable. Just because a title isn't written for the most uneducated reader does not mean it is misleading.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#29

Post by lazyasciiart »

meritt wrote: post #20
Scoundreller wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m also expecting some long term after-effects that will increase diabetes and heart disease as most people are locked up.

Really? Maybe my local experience is an outlier but I've seen significantly more people cooking meals at home and exercising. The number of daily runners in my neighborhood has easily increased 10x. Are gluttony and sedentary lifestyles not the major contributors for type-2 diabetes and heart disease?

Has the number of runners increased more than the number of people going to gyms/sports leagues/swimming pools has dropped?

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#30

Post by JohnJamesRambo »

gizmo686 wrote: post #11
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #2

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

Looking at the graph here [0], it would be very surprising if COVID was net saving lives. [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-us-weekly-coronavirus-...

Not looking good. :( I guess I thought a lot more people than that died from car crashes.
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