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Dr. Fauci throws cold water on conspiracy theory Covid-19 came from Chinese lab

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Re: Dr. Fauci throws cold water on conspiracy theory Covid-19 came from Chinese lab

#11
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its possible one person could have contracted the virus, then traveled to the wet-market, which is about 20 miles away, then spent some time there shopping there and passed it on to others. Then again, it could have come from the wet market and it could be a coincidence. I don't want to make this into a left-wing vs right-wing thing.

Perhaps you could make it a ‘listen to the professional epidemiologist’ thing?

Appeal to authority does not get you points in an debate on facts. Especially when said facts would be rather inconvenient to have internationally recognized.

Furthermore, I'm sorry but I don't give a damn how many Ph.D's you've got. Congratulations. You've mastered thriving in the politics heavy realm that is academia.

There is no way in hell you're going to convince me that a plague coming out of a geographical area containing a BSL-4 and BSL-2 lab had absolutely no bearing on the matter. Heck, the argument can even be turned around just as readily. What are the odds against this happening anywhere else but the nearest Wet Market to two major virology labs engaging in research with regards to host species jumping of bat coronaviruses?

When you have the original purported host animal only present in any great numbers at the WIV or WHCDC, and research being conducted at both places with regards to how transgenic host jump takes place. Where you've got precedent for highly virulent pathogen containment breach. At this point the "conspiracy theory" label itself is doing more heavy lifting than the actually impressive number of "circumstantial" pieces of evidence in that there is not one single convincing argument for why the host jump didn't take place anywhere but in relatively close proximity to areas actively engaged in this type of research.

It is not a conspiracy theory to follow smoke to a fire. Therefore when faced with a novel plague, popping up in close proximity to institutions in which virological research happens should not be treated any differently.

To suggest otherwise is to bury your head in the sand. Read some of these research papers for heaven sake. Or look at what's at risk one way or another. If it's the labs, China has another black eye and chances being held internationally responsible depending on what's provable. The international histological community will be in for increased scrutiny/hardship/onerous regulation in the future, so on, ethical debates to be settled, and so on.

On the other hand, gee whiz, if we just blame the wet market, we can keep doing everything we're doing and it's just a fluke! Maybe pass some token hygiene regulations or something, then egg need not settle on anyone's face!

Furthermore, epidemiology is at it's core a data centric practice, and is thus very steerable due to GIGO. If there is data that has been hidden, it completely changes the outcome, and we know that China is not best friends with the concept of transparency.

There's Hanlon's Razor, and then there's turning off any semblance of critical thinking because someone credentialed told you to. It doesn't even change anything except the politics/optics of the entire, which should be your first hint an effort at perception management is underway.

You believe what you want. I've read up on https://project-evidence.github.io/ and their absolutely abhorrent original name aside, I was directly aware of at least half of the evidence papers they've referenced through HN, and the conclusions that just the coincidences in that lead to should give anyone reasonable pause. The world is small, and this level of "coincidental" locality may not make it easy on policy makers, but it should not be dismissed out of hand. Those who do not fight to get the whole truth will spend their lives being driven by those who must keep it from being known. It's more important for you to have all the info and make a decision on it, than to have some authority figure tell you what they want you to believe.

At best, I buy that it was not a byproduct of direct intended human engineering. I do not accept that a lab had nothing to do with it. Especially given the knock on effects of what would be at stake if it were proven to be the case. The investigation needs to happen.

Re: Dr. Fauci throws cold water on conspiracy theory Covid-19 came from Chinese lab

#13
post #11
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps you could make it a ‘listen to the professional epidemiologist’ thing?

Appeal to authority does not get you points in an debate on facts. Especially when said facts would be rather inconvenient to have internationally recognized. Furthermore, I'm sorry but I don't give a damn how many Ph.D's you've got. Congratulations. You've mastered thriving in the politics heavy realm that is academia. There is no way in hell you're going to convince me that a plague coming out of a geographical are…

> There is no way in hell you're going to convince me that a plague coming out of a geographical area containing a BSL-4 and BSL-2 lab had absolutely no bearing on the matter.

Do you have the causality backwards. The laboratory is in that region because there are local disease caring populations of animals. That’s what they study.

Re: Dr. Fauci throws cold water on conspiracy theory Covid-19 came from Chinese lab

#14
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Newsweek has specifically addressed just the "escaped from a lab" theory. 'Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded Scientists Say' https://www.newsweek.com/claim-that-coronavirus-came-lab-chi...

Fundamentally, you are not going to find any direct evidence that the virus came from a lab unless the virus has signs of being engineered (which seems to not be the case). Only in the last week or so major news organizations have started covering the theory of lab escape of an unmodified pathogen. You can find tons or articles arguing either way. Given the fact that almost every city in China is going to have wet ma…

Did you read the Newsweek article?

"The SARS-CoV-2 virus has some key differences in specific genes relative to previously identified coronaviruses — the ones a laboratory would be working with," said Adam Lauring, an associate professor at the University of Michigan Medical School and an expert in the evolution of viruses.

Re: Dr. Fauci throws cold water on conspiracy theory Covid-19 came from Chinese lab

#15
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps you could make it a ‘listen to the professional epidemiologist’ thing?

No. There is no proof that it came from the wet market either. There are wet markets all over China, how come this doesn't happen all the time? Shit happens, somebody doesn't follow protocol and a virus escapes, how unbelievable does that sound? For the record, Dr. Fauci is not an epidemiologist, he's just a basic bitch Dr.

I've banned this account until we get some indication that you want to use HN as intended. That would include not using a trollish username. You're welcome to email hn@ycombinator.com if you don't want to be banned.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Dr. Fauci throws cold water on conspiracy theory Covid-19 came from Chinese lab

#16
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Appeal to authority does not get you points in an debate on facts. Especially when said facts would be rather inconvenient to have internationally recognized. Furthermore, I'm sorry but I don't give a damn how many Ph.D's you've got. Congratulations. You've mastered thriving in the politics heavy realm that is academia. There is no way in hell you're going to convince me that a plague coming out of a geographical are…

> There is no way in hell you're going to convince me that a plague coming out of a geographical area containing a BSL-4 and BSL-2 lab had absolutely no bearing on the matter. Do you have the causality backwards. The laboratory is in that region because there are local disease caring populations of animals. That’s what they study.

Also, the BSL-4 lab was 7 miles from the Wuhan market. Don't conflate the two.

It is a city of 11 million people. You will find lots of things in such a large city.

Re: Dr. Fauci throws cold water on conspiracy theory Covid-19 came from Chinese lab

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is no way in hell you're going to convince me that a plague coming out of a geographical area containing a BSL-4 and BSL-2 lab had absolutely no bearing on the matter. Do you have the causality backwards. The laboratory is in that region because there are local disease caring populations of animals. That’s what they study.

Also, the BSL-4 lab was 7 miles from the Wuhan market. Don't conflate the two. It is a city of 11 million people. You will find lots of things in such a large city.

7 miles is not very far.

Re: Dr. Fauci throws cold water on conspiracy theory Covid-19 came from Chinese lab

#18
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fundamentally, you are not going to find any direct evidence that the virus came from a lab unless the virus has signs of being engineered (which seems to not be the case). Only in the last week or so major news organizations have started covering the theory of lab escape of an unmodified pathogen. You can find tons or articles arguing either way. Given the fact that almost every city in China is going to have wet ma…

Did you read the Newsweek article? "The SARS-CoV-2 virus has some key differences in specific genes relative to previously identified coronaviruses — the ones a laboratory would be working with," said Adam Lauring, an associate professor at the University of Michigan Medical School and an expert in the evolution of viruses.

Again, there are many articles that argue either side of this. You can pick and choose quotes however you like.

That being said, you don't believe that a lab that studies novel coronaviruses could be studying a novel coronavirus? There is a history of pathogens escaping labs and there are many more wet markets in other cities in China than labs doing related research. As the simplest approximation just try applying bayes rule.

Additionally, the CCP is an authoritarian regime with a strong motive to cover things up. A refusal to even consider the possibility of a lab escape is willful ignorance.

Re: Dr. Fauci throws cold water on conspiracy theory Covid-19 came from Chinese lab

#19
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Appeal to authority does not get you points in an debate on facts. Especially when said facts would be rather inconvenient to have internationally recognized. Furthermore, I'm sorry but I don't give a damn how many Ph.D's you've got. Congratulations. You've mastered thriving in the politics heavy realm that is academia. There is no way in hell you're going to convince me that a plague coming out of a geographical are…

> There is no way in hell you're going to convince me that a plague coming out of a geographical area containing a BSL-4 and BSL-2 lab had absolutely no bearing on the matter. Do you have the causality backwards. The laboratory is in that region because there are local disease caring populations of animals. That’s what they study.

I do not. See section 8.7 in the link. Most of the bats are endemic to a cave over 1000 miles away. The bats weren't common in Wuhan. If they were, it was most likely as a part of some active research project rather than because bat sounded like a great idea to add to the menu. I'm not a local, so I'll admit to not having primary experience of the area. But the pile of circumstantial evidence is non-bloody trivial and bares being given the courtesy of a looking into in parallel with the Market theory.
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