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Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

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Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#91

Post by jsanford9292 »

pmiller2 wrote: post #69
jsanford9292 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes I wish we could pick a US state and turn it into this vision. Social safety net for all, free healthcare for all, no loopholes for the rich. There are so many people who would like to see how this plays out. And more importantly, the expectation of the outcome varies WILDLY from smart person to smart person. Personally, I believe this state would be bankrupt in a matter of years, companies that produce tax…

I'd love to see that experiment played out, but I suspect your "no loopholes for the rich" would cause them to flee to another state. States don't have the ability to tax anyone who is not a resident. On the federal level, this would not necessarily be so, since we can make it incredibly expensive for billionaires to renounce citizenship, by implementing a progressive "exit tax" that includes assets in the calculatio…

Exactly. I think the country example would be similar to the state with billionaires leaving but more importantly, companies leaving due to the higher corporate tax rate that would be necessary to finance these social programs. Medtronic and Pfizer are good early examples of this phenomenon.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#92

Post by jsanford9292 »

jmeister wrote: post #42
jsanford9292 wrote: post #25

Value investing has been replaced by government support. Big companies like airlines are not allowed to "get cheap" anymore. From Berkshire Hathaway alone, there are hundreds of billions of dollars of private money waiting to step in during times like these. Instead, we will "bail out" aggressively managed companies and encourage all big companies to be more aggressive going forwards. Because they have a government b…

A counterpoint and a reason for hope: After the 08 crisis, the big banks were required to keep aside a lot more money in reserves, agree to periodic stress tests by regulators, and forgo certain risky activities(proprietary trading). Now regulators/management are pretty confident that the banking sector is robust and a 08 like crisis cannot happen again.

I spent two years studying US regional banks and I can tell you that what you're saying is factually correct. 08 effectively nationalized the big banks. "Too big to fail" means any bank over a certain asset size will be rescued by the government if it gets into trouble. Basically, bankers get the upside if loans go well, taxpayers get the downside if they don't. The worst kind of nationalization. But the 08 regulations were so stringent that it would be very hard for banks to fail. Like you said. However, since that time, politicians decided that the regulations of 08 were too constricting to banks and were hurting small and medium biz growth. So a bipartisan coalition in Congress lifted the regulations for all banks <$250Bn asset size. Deregulation. So now, these bankers are free to chase profits without the chains from 08 and if their banks end up failing, we will still bail them out. The worst of both worlds.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#93

Post by jsanford9292 »

ethagknight wrote: post #73
jsanford9292 wrote: post #25

Value investing has been replaced by government support. Big companies like airlines are not allowed to "get cheap" anymore. From Berkshire Hathaway alone, there are hundreds of billions of dollars of private money waiting to step in during times like these. Instead, we will "bail out" aggressively managed companies and encourage all big companies to be more aggressive going forwards. Because they have a government b…

Keep in mind, this is a totally unprecedented government mandated shut down to the economy, not the result of overly aggressive fiscal management.

Yes, this is the 2nd totally unprecedented economic "black swan" in the past 12 years. But I agree with you. The cause may always be different, but the problem lies in the principle. We are bailing out airlines because we cannot "afford" to let airlines fail. We bailed out banks in 08 because we could not "afford" to let big banks fail. There are actually airlines that don't need bailout money just as there were big banks that didn't need TARP money after 08. Some would call these companies "better managed". If we don't rescue the failing companies, they would then have to accept terrible terms from value investors like Munger and their equity would be worth a lot less than the equity at the "better managed" companies. This is proper incentive alignment. Having the government step in and protect the equity of failing companies will always result in misaligned incentives. By the way, employees at the failing companies fare pretty much the same whether the government or Munger steps in.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#94

Post by ctdonath »

minikites wrote: post #14
ctdonath wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA is effectively 50 countries with different demographics, geography, culture, and needs. Trying to impose any “one size fits all” solution won’t work because it’s not appropriate for a significant number of them.

Where is "access to clean water" (or frankly, anything on the list) not appropriate?

That presumes providing clean water is somebody else’s problem. It’s not.

Classic American culture is rooted in independence. I honestly don’t grasp the notion that “access to clean water” involves compelling others to make water clean & available cheap/free in large quantity; don’t ruin what water is commonly available, property rights apply, collect what flows/falls on your property ... otherwise it’s up to you to buy or acquire/purify for your own needs.

If an area does not have a suitable source, move. There is no right to live where you like and compel others to alleviate regional inadequacies.

“Access to clean water” is not appropriate where there isn’t any (which includes much of the US), or where water has been ruined beyond reasonable reclamation (Flint, Syracuse, etc).

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#95

Post by ctdonath »

kelnos wrote: post #56
misun78 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with something like “free” healthcare is that proposed policies like Medicare for all only really talks about the demand side of the equation. It purports to expand the coverage without mentioning how we can pay doctors more so there is more of them, incentivize the private sector to produce (and profit from) top-notch drug treatments, reduce personnel and bureaucratic inefficiencies (which mind you implies…

> It purports to expand the coverage without mentioning how we can pay doctors more so there is more of them That part of it is actually not complicated: once you dismantle the private health insurance industry, you eliminate billions of dollars of waste and inefficiency that can now go toward actual care. Not saying that there won't be inefficiencies in a government-administrated system, but we actually already know…

Yes, we know what Medicare looks like.

We don't want "Medicare for all". Really.

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#96

Post by rabboRubble »

CapriciousCptl wrote: post #45
rabboRubble wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

curious FF / Safari through up security warnings for archive.is and archive.today. going at them from a roundabout way gives me a CloudFlare DNS error page. this's been going on the last week or so. wonder what the problem is?

Don't know about the FF thing but here's the CloudFlare thing straight from their CEO-- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19828702

that explains the trouble I'm having. i have my local network resolving to 1.1.1.1. Or was it 9.9.9.9? Or 8.8.8.8?

i'll have to dig into this a bit more. thanks!

it's always dns :-)

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#97

Post by ethagknight »

jsanford9292 wrote: post #93
ethagknight wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind, this is a totally unprecedented government mandated shut down to the economy, not the result of overly aggressive fiscal management.

Yes, this is the 2nd totally unprecedented economic "black swan" in the past 12 years. But I agree with you. The cause may always be different, but the problem lies in the principle. We are bailing out airlines because we cannot "afford" to let airlines fail. We bailed out banks in 08 because we could not "afford" to let big banks fail. There are actually airlines that don't need bailout money just as there were big…

Great points all around. Also consider that those 'better managed' companies are effectively penalized for NOT rewarding their investors in the past, when they could have instead paid out dividends or buybacks and hope for a government savior if things get bad fingers crossed

Re: Charlie Munger: ‘The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook’

#98

Post by nlfwhulsdhouv »

dang wrote: post #89
nlfwhulsdhouv wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

We've asked you before to stop using HN for ideological battle. It destroys the curious conversation that this site is supposed to exist for. It also routinely ends up with poison like "How obtuse are you?" and, god help us, "you're a bootlicking shit". Since you're participating regularly here, I assume this is not the kind of place you want HN to be, so please don't make it so. The GP comment shouldn't have posted…

You're grossly overestimating how much I care about this place. If it burns to the ground it'll be better for everyone.

Plus I'm 90% sure you shadowbanned me anyway sooooo...

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