What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago • Hacker News Board

Re: What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago

#131

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 5:56 PM UTC

andrewtbham wrote: post #124

andrewtbham wrote: post #117

I am following Cameron Kyle-Sidell on twitter (one of the doctors in the video). He has a possible theory on what it's going on. https://twitter.com/cameronks/status/1251233871137574913

why in the fuck was this voted down?? I want a fucking answer. I am sick of this site... Mark my fucking words... I am good at discerning fake news from stuff that shows promise. This is not a 5G tower theory of the disease... this is promising insight that points toward the truth. I am going to link back to this comment and this downvote as the problem with social media. there are too many ignorant stupid self right…

[deleted]

Re: What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago

#132

Post by Ericson2314 » Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 6:06 PM UTC

dmix wrote: post #34

dmurray wrote: post #20

> “You put a tube into somebody,” Dr. Levitan said, “and the amount of work required not to kill that person goes up by a factor of 100,” creating a cascade that slows down laboratory results, X-rays and other care. I'd hope this could be a generally applicable lesson after the pandemic. In less overwhelming times, the medical best practice is once someone is in hospital, prescribe the statistically best treatment ev…

Using extreme scenarios to plan for normal life has long been the recipe for bad policy. This may make sense where hospital beds/ICU/medical professionals to capita ratio is low such as in low income neighbourhoods and countries but otherwise it’s mostly just useful for emergency planning. The proper solution tends to be higher amounts of hospitals, mental health centers, supplies, preparation for outbreaks, etc. The…

I don't want Patriot act thinking—we agree there—but the US is so used to assuming it's rich/powerful beyond belief and then getting poor outcomes. We have general efficiency and cost disease issues that emergency planning can absolutely teach us how to address.

Re: What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago

#133

Post by acqq » Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 6:11 PM UTC

tathougies wrote: post #94

misja111 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> get rid of the need to flatten the curve. This. A policy of flattening the curve will probably have to last for one or two years until either a vaccine is found or there is enough herd immunity. This will not only destroy our economy but the isolation will be a psychological challenge for many as well. We have to take one step back and think why we wanted to flatten the curve in the first place. And that is becaus…

But our hospitals do have enough capacity. So far we have not seen widespread hospital overruns as predicted. Army field hospitals were set up and then taken down with no one treated. New York wanted 40000 ventilators but only needed 5000. Surely we should increase availability, but the original predictions that inspired this level of lockdown have not come to pass and with the information we have now, we know they a…

> the original predictions that inspired this level of lockdown have not come to pass

The predictions of what would have happened had no lockdown been introduced then haven't materialized precisely because the lockdown have been executed.

That is no argument that the lockdown haven't been needed.

Re: What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago

#134

Post by Der_Einzige » Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 6:12 PM UTC

andrewtbham wrote: post #124

andrewtbham wrote: post #117

I am following Cameron Kyle-Sidell on twitter (one of the doctors in the video). He has a possible theory on what it's going on. https://twitter.com/cameronks/status/1251233871137574913

why in the fuck was this voted down?? I want a fucking answer. I am sick of this site... Mark my fucking words... I am good at discerning fake news from stuff that shows promise. This is not a 5G tower theory of the disease... this is promising insight that points toward the truth. I am going to link back to this comment and this downvote as the problem with social media. there are too many ignorant stupid self right…

Yeah the HN userbase can be extremely frustrating to deal with. Your comments will be flagged and you'll likely get some admin telling you to read the HN guidelines as though it means anything or matters.

But I want you to know that someone else on this site sees the bullshit within the community that exasperated you so much. The HN crowd will upvoted BS posts and downvote substantial discussion on basically a random whim. The admins are known to very insulting label good posts as things such as "tedious ideological boilerplate" or "political flame bait" when they personally don't like what was posted. The userbase treats upvotes and downvotes exactly the way they're used on Reddit. This place is basically just nerd Reddit.

Unfortunately your claim about the virginity of the userbase is both unnecessary (and guaranteed to find the wrath of the powers here) and most likely wrong because the folks here really do make money.

You gotta play the game by their rules or they grey you out. Use those coding skills we all supposedly have to make a new platform and make it better so you can steal away the part of HNs userbase whose worth a damn. That's likely the only way to "fight da powah" since you're obviously very unhappy about this whole ordeal...

Re: What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago

#135

Post by yongjik » Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 6:22 PM UTC

irq11 wrote: post #126

yongjik wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is a contagious respiratory virus, and it’s going to spread until there is herd immunity. Umm, no. The number of people who pretend South Korea does not exist is too damn high these days...

I am well aware of the numbers in South Korea. The virus is still spreading. There are still new cases, every day. We have managed to eliminate one human virus in history: smallpox. And we only did that through mass vaccination. We have never eliminated a respiratory virus, nor have we ever developed a successful vaccine against a coronavirus, despite huge financial incentives to do it. The inevitable outcome here is…

South Korea has 51M people. If we have 1,000 patients every day, it will take 141 years to infect everyone.

We had 18 new patients yesterday.

(I'd normally write a snarky comment here, but the numbers speak for themselves.)

Re: What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago

#136

Post by pastage » Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 6:22 PM UTC

shalmanese wrote: post #122

dkdk8283 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contact tracing is a severe invasion of privacy and just another tool to increase surveillance. I will never submit to such measures.

Just so we're clear, can you explain succinctly the key details of how contact tracing has been implemented in the various countries that have rolled it out and which parts you object to? There's a lot of parameters in the "design space" of contact tracing. If you're objecting to simply the most extreme version of it, then duh, anyone would, including the Chinese.

That is hard to answer can you anser what kind of contact tracing are you missing in "the West", and what level of privacy invasion are you comparing it against.

In the first stages of Corona we did a lot of old school contact tracing.

Re: What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago

#137

Post by Der_Einzige » Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 6:23 PM UTC

irq11 wrote: post #95

maxerickson wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have to smash the curve so that we don't need the hospital capacity. It turns out that getting the number of infected down close to zero would also be good for the economy. I don't understand why so many people think that the best possible plan is for everyone to get infected. The best possibilities involve a few percentage points of the global population getting infected, no where near everyone.

This simply isn’t possible, and it’s a maddeningly irresponsible shifting of the goalposts. The public was sold these extreme tactics on the basis of preventing excess deaths, not locking down society for years on end until the virus (hopefully) goes away. Respiratory viruses, once endemic, have never been completely suppressed. Even China is seeing a resurgence in cases. What we’re doing now isn’t sustainable or eth…

Well, Americans are going to be forced into multi-year lockdowns when they realize that reinfection is a real possibility and even if not that the infectivity of this is so high that lifting of stay at home orders will cause numbers to begin overwhelming hospitals again within weeks. Herd immunity is unlikely to save us in the short or even medium term.

There's talk of multiple strains or of it mutating in ways which aren't necessarily more deadly but make reinfection possible independently of the currently found 2% who seem to be testing positive again after "recovering" from covid

Then the powers that be will realize just how deep of a shit situation we are in. The people who are protesting now are likely infecting themselves or will soon know a loved one with this and soon they will personally realize how stupid they were to protest this. It's only a matter of time...

Re: What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago

#138

Post by andrewtbham » Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 6:25 PM UTC

Der_Einzige wrote: post #134

andrewtbham wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why in the fuck was this voted down?? I want a fucking answer. I am sick of this site... Mark my fucking words... I am good at discerning fake news from stuff that shows promise. This is not a 5G tower theory of the disease... this is promising insight that points toward the truth. I am going to link back to this comment and this downvote as the problem with social media. there are too many ignorant stupid self right…

Yeah the HN userbase can be extremely frustrating to deal with. Your comments will be flagged and you'll likely get some admin telling you to read the HN guidelines as though it means anything or matters. But I want you to know that someone else on this site sees the bullshit within the community that exasperated you so much. The HN crowd will upvoted BS posts and downvote substantial discussion on basically a random…

I have always bit my tongue on here.. I went to Startup School 2012. So I have tried to keep my cool because I thought it might lead to some opportunity.

But this site is so bad at this point. I really don't care anymore. I might lose my karma or get kicked off but I frankly do not care...

I have read the guidelines. and I defy someone on here to give me a good reason to downvote the original comment.

Re: What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago

#139

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 6:26 PM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #130

irq11 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you’re still shifting the goalposts. The point of “flattening the curve” is not — and was never — to reduce the area under the curve . This is a contagious respiratory virus, and it’s going to spread until there is herd immunity. Maybe there will be a vaccine in 12-18 months. Maybe not. But regardless, we can’t go on for that long with over 30% of society out of work. Most people are going to get this virus. If y…

I never conceded that flattening the curve was not about reducing the area, so I have not moved any goalposts. I was going to make a comment on this article about the meme being too effective, in that it convinced people that the only point was to reduce the load on the medical system. Of course the goal is to reduce the load on the medical system, but that's step one, to get though the first wave of infections and t…

[deleted]

Re: What doctors on the front lines wish they’d known a month ago

#140

Post by andrewtbham » Sat, Apr 18, 2020, 6:28 PM UTC

Der_Einzige wrote: post #134

andrewtbham wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why in the fuck was this voted down?? I want a fucking answer. I am sick of this site... Mark my fucking words... I am good at discerning fake news from stuff that shows promise. This is not a 5G tower theory of the disease... this is promising insight that points toward the truth. I am going to link back to this comment and this downvote as the problem with social media. there are too many ignorant stupid self right…

Yeah the HN userbase can be extremely frustrating to deal with. Your comments will be flagged and you'll likely get some admin telling you to read the HN guidelines as though it means anything or matters. But I want you to know that someone else on this site sees the bullshit within the community that exasperated you so much. The HN crowd will upvoted BS posts and downvote substantial discussion on basically a random…

I have thought quite a bit about how to make a better more credible site.... It would be quite a challenge.

One feature that would be useful on hacker news, would be to indicate which guideline you're violating when you downvote.