Is there any info on the sensitivity/specificity of this test and/or on how they confirm that positive results aren't false positives?
Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
331–340 of 544 posts
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#332Random testing in Germany has also revealed higher than expected rates of people with antibodies. Their IFR (infected fatality rate) was 2% overall based on non-random testing. Random testing has yielded an IFR or 0.37%. This does not increase the risk. These tests only test people who had coronavirus. The larger this portion, the more herd immunity there is in the population. It implies that there were a larger than…
If 0.37% is true, why are the hospitals in this shape?
These were among the very first cases in Germany where capacity was abundant, hence the low fatality rate.
Also, this is a “up to now” value, more cases might turn out fatal.
“Only” 7 deaths is furthermore not a good data basis for calculating this number.
Moreover, the report is not even public nor peer reviewed. So I can’t even cite it here. However you find criticism of the study by Prof. Streeck online.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#333Random testing in Germany has also revealed higher than expected rates of people with antibodies. Their IFR (infected fatality rate) was 2% overall based on non-random testing. Random testing has yielded an IFR or 0.37%. This does not increase the risk. These tests only test people who had coronavirus. The larger this portion, the more herd immunity there is in the population. It implies that there were a larger than…
I thought there had been cases of people getting reinfected, and that how long the immunity lasts seemed to correlate to how sick you'd been. So the immunity of asymptomatic people wouldn't last very long. Maybe it'll last long enough to make a dent in the infection rate?
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#334It's the first time I see news about the aircraft carrier. Could someone summarize why the captain got fired for testing his whole crew in an environment where a lot of people have to live very closely together? My first assumption is that it was a really good decision.
He sent an email to his commander and his commander's commander about how the situation was deteriorating... which were then leaked to the press and was promptly relieved of command by Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly who later on resigned. Most people think it was a good call but it also may have compromised the safety of the carrier because now it's known they may be operating under less than perfect condition.
The Washington Post managed to get the original letter: https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1250840016806445056
It's pretty clear he was canned by a political appointee for political reasons.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#335Earlier quoted context omitted.
I feel that the asymptomatic thing is more wishful thinking in places where infection control has failed. Other countries have shown that you can contain the spread of Covid19, even if there are asymptomatic (or more realistic, low symptom severity) cases.
How do we KNOW it's controlled? Asymptomatic people are not, as a rule, tested, so actual infection rates could be massive.
If that were true, then we'll have herd immunity in a month.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#336Random testing in Germany has also revealed higher than expected rates of people with antibodies. Their IFR (infected fatality rate) was 2% overall based on non-random testing. Random testing has yielded an IFR or 0.37%. This does not increase the risk. These tests only test people who had coronavirus. The larger this portion, the more herd immunity there is in the population. It implies that there were a larger than…
I thought there had been cases of people getting reinfected, and that how long the immunity lasts seemed to correlate to how sick you'd been. So the immunity of asymptomatic people wouldn't last very long. Maybe it'll last long enough to make a dent in the infection rate?
> I thought there had been cases of people getting reinfected, and that how long the immunity lasts seemed to correlate to how sick you'd been.
What they found so far is that some people had lower levels of antibodies than others, but that it did not correlate to how sick they were. It's also not clear at this point that anyone's been re-infected (although it is possible) because it's much more likely they hadn't recovered but had received a false negative test followed by a positive test.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#337Earlier quoted context omitted.
> but the trajectories don't lie Except for when they do. Easter just passed and the the trajectories are plotted up to and including today, when Sweden for example is adding deaths to dates two weeks back every day, and the last 5-7 days _ALWAYS_ looks like a downward trajectory. The last little spike there from before easter has grown by 35% since after easter and is still growing daily. You can't draw conclusions…
Sure, but in that chart Italy for example has had a declining graph for over two weeks, which means you can be reasonably sure it's not growing exponentially there. And in Sweden's case, if you also look at the number of ICU admissions, they've been flat for weeks, and those numbers have very little lag. I'm not saying everything is fine, I'm not saying we're over the peak, but I am saying that it's not the case that…
"ICU admissions [...] have very little lag."
Sweden's ICU admissions number for a particular day usually takes a week or two to settle down.
For instance, here's how the numbers were updated each following day for the number of ICU admissions on the second of April: 42, 42, 43, 46, 47, 49, 48, 49, 49, 49, 49, 52. So it took until the 14. of April for the reporting of the second of April to settle down---and we still don't know if it's going to change again or not.
Source: I copied the numbers from the official site https://www.icuregswe.org/data--resultat/covid-19-i-svensk-i...
As far as I can tell, the official site doesn't record a history of what they reported, so the history is just what I manually copied to a file once a day when I happened to look.
Do I think the lag is crucial? No. But it's unexpected to me.
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#338Random testing in Germany has also revealed higher than expected rates of people with antibodies. Their IFR (infected fatality rate) was 2% overall based on non-random testing. Random testing has yielded an IFR or 0.37%. This does not increase the risk. These tests only test people who had coronavirus. The larger this portion, the more herd immunity there is in the population. It implies that there were a larger than…
I thought there had been cases of people getting reinfected, and that how long the immunity lasts seemed to correlate to how sick you'd been. So the immunity of asymptomatic people wouldn't last very long. Maybe it'll last long enough to make a dent in the infection rate?
We don’t really know that.
However, there are strong indications that PCR false negatives can happen quite a lot late during the illness.
Those aren’t re-infections, that's just PCR testing at and around the detection limit.
See these graphs from the Munich cluster in Germany: https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1249791222526468099
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#339Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is there really widespread antigen testing in NYC? I certainly have not heard about it here in Brooklyn.
Only recovered plasma donation volunteers are being tested.
Hmm, New York Blood Center says, "Please be aware that we do NOT test for COVID-19. You should contact your health care provider if you want to be tested." [0] Where else should I be looking?
[0]: https://www.nybc.org/donate-blood/covid-19-and-blood-donatio...
Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free
#340Stanford’s study should give us more info soon. They recently screened a decent sized group in Santa Clara County to get a sense of how widespread it is, using their newly developed finger-prick test which looks for both antigens and antibodies (whether you have it / had it and recovered). Currently the test is being prioritized for frontline healthcare workers while they work on scaling up: https://www.stanforddaily…
It's been 12 days since they tested everyone. My understanding is that the results for serological tests are available right away, so I was expecting them to publish results within a few days. Any idea why they haven't yet?