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California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

gov.ca.gov

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Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#401

Post by viklove »

war1025 wrote: post #289
viklove wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And when 3-5 million people die over the course of a year you won't blame the government?

Something I thought about the other day that I think puts some of this in perspective: The population of the US is ~300 million. The average lifespan is ~80 years. We have a growing population, but supposing we had a stable population, that would require a bit more than 3 million people to die each year. Basically my point is, in a stable situation, that order of people will already be dying yearly. I don't know what…

Are you volunteering?

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#402

Post by timr »

ajross wrote: post #356
orangecat wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Edit to show the point better: Go here (easily the best visualization site, FWIW), scroll to the bottom where you can see a log chart of per-capita infection rates normalized to a single "start time" metric, and compare the Idaho chart with the New York one. Number of cases is largely a proxy for how many tests are being done ( https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts... ). Looking at deaths is mo…

But growing with the same exponent! The point was that Idaho doesn't need special mitigation rules, because unmitigated Idaho is somewhere around 2 weeks "behind" New York. Even here people seem not to get that point. The outbreaks are smaller outside the international cities because they were later, not because they're inherently better controlled.

They are not growing with the same exponent. You keep repeating this, even though the evidence you cite clearly shows that it's not true.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#403

Post by ajross »

timr wrote: post #402
ajross wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But growing with the same exponent! The point was that Idaho doesn't need special mitigation rules, because unmitigated Idaho is somewhere around 2 weeks "behind" New York. Even here people seem not to get that point. The outbreaks are smaller outside the international cities because they were later, not because they're inherently better controlled.

They are not growing with the same exponent. You keep repeating this, even though the evidence you cite clearly shows that it's not true.

I literally gave you numbers elsewhere in this thread. Argue there and cite your own, please. You seem to be the one arguing without evidence.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#404

Post by mayneack »

rhizome wrote: post #392
mayneack wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are they scarce everywhere? I was under the impression that LA county, at least, could test everyone that was symptomatic.

That's great for LA county but there are 320 million of us who don't live there. That is: should they be scarce anywhere ? Remember, this is the USA.

This whole thread is about California's roadmap. LA County is something like 25% of the state. Why stop at the USA? With people moving between places, outbreaks anywhere will matter until there's a reasonable vaccine/treatment.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#405

Post by makomk »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #119
marktangotango wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is he going for suppression? Is he going for mitigation? This is the factor that has been missing from all the reporting on this crises. The goal of suppressing the virus to zero and merely seeking mitigate the virus surge effect on available ICU beds leads to drastic differences in all metrics most notably “peak deaths”. If the goal is mitigation with rolling shutdowns, there will be many many more deaths. Virus s…

The idea of suppressing the virus to zero just doesn't really exist outside of certain circles. Every government I'm aware of has acknowledged that there will be many more deaths, and all of my friends and family expect that.

Unfortunately, those "certain circles" seem to include the World Health Organization...

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#406

Post by timr »

ajross wrote: post #403
timr wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not growing with the same exponent. You keep repeating this, even though the evidence you cite clearly shows that it's not true.

I literally gave you numbers elsewhere in this thread. Argue there and cite your own, please. You seem to be the one arguing without evidence.

I used the graph you gave me. You aren't reading it correctly.
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