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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can only get evidence if you go out and collect the evidence. I am proposing a way we can actually collect this evidence. Saying something won’t work because there is no evidence when you haven’t look for any evidence is not very logical.

Just questioning assumptions, in a healthy skepticism kind of way. I have no expertise here. There is a lot of speculation and general fud surrounding covid-19, seems right to question potential 'solutions' when we are light on facts. To be clear, I never said it wouldn't work, I'm saying that it looks like you assume it will work.

I most certainly have not assumed it will work, in fact I say there is a pretty good chance it won’t. What I do think it could work and that the cost in minor compared to the payoff if it does work.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#572
post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true, but it might take a few hundred years. I think it would be better if we try and help the process along.

I'm not sure, but you might be greatly underestimating the rate of evolution for these virii. Generally it is ~10^9 faster than eukaryote evolution ( https://viralzone.expasy.org/4136 ) and there are many (10^?) generations that occur in every host. Early selective pressure for fast replication makes it deadly, but late-stage selective pressure is to be transmissible through mild symptoms. The end game is that it bec…

We have a pretty good idea how fast corona virus evolve. Yes there will be selection pressure for it to become less deadly, but this can take a long time. My proposal is how we can speed up this process.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the relationship between Lassa fever and covid-19 ?

People get a fever, and think it is covid, but it is actually lassa

Look up the symptoms of lassa fever. It could not possibly be confused for anything else. Besides, it occurs in specific locales.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#574

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People get a fever, and think it is covid, but it is actually lassa

Look up the symptoms of lassa fever. It could not possibly be confused for anything else. Besides, it occurs in specific locales.

>In 80% of those who are infected little or no symptoms occur. These mild symptoms may include fever, tiredness, weakness, and headache.

Those are also covid symptoms

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#575

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just questioning assumptions, in a healthy skepticism kind of way. I have no expertise here. There is a lot of speculation and general fud surrounding covid-19, seems right to question potential 'solutions' when we are light on facts. To be clear, I never said it wouldn't work, I'm saying that it looks like you assume it will work.

I most certainly have not assumed it will work, in fact I say there is a pretty good chance it won’t. What I do think it could work and that the cost in minor compared to the payoff if it does work.

In which case, we need to think about Medical Ethics. Do we start experimenting with you and your loved ones?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He says: > Apart from the time it will take to develop, trial, and mass produce a vaccine (12-18 months), it is unlikely that any vaccine will be practicable. The reason why is immunity to respiratory viruses (like corona) doesn’t last long – 6 months to 2 years. We would have to keep vaccinating everyone in the world every year (or maybe every 6 months if we are unlucky). This just isn’t going to work in the real wo…

The “magical” part is nature has run the experiments we aren’t yet ready to run with vaccines. Time really is an important issue.

Nature may have run enough experiments to know that the less deadly strain is as safe as a vaccine, but she won't just tell us that. We would have to discover it for ourselves with the same scientific method we use to interrogate vaccine candidates. Which BTW is the time-consuming part... we already have some candidates.

This matters because if someone were to do anything to promote or help others infect themselves with the strain... that person or company could face significant civil liability if the strain turns out to not be safe for everyone. Even one wrongful death suit can ruin your day.

Vaccine liability is "manually managed" via federal legislation. Encouraging people to have infection parties is not.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#577

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “magical” part is nature has run the experiments we aren’t yet ready to run with vaccines. Time really is an important issue.

Nature may have run enough experiments to know that the less deadly strain is as safe as a vaccine, but she won't just tell us that. We would have to discover it for ourselves with the same scientific method we use to interrogate vaccine candidates. Which BTW is the time-consuming part... we already have some candidates. This matters because if someone were to do anything to promote or help others infect themselves w…

Yes we use the scientific method of epidemiology - has been working since John Snow used it to determine that there was a cholera problem with the Broad Street Pump [1].

I am not encouraging anyone to do anything other than look for a natural attenuated strain. This point seems to be missed time and time again.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1854_Broad_Street_cholera_outb...

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I most certainly have not assumed it will work, in fact I say there is a pretty good chance it won’t. What I do think it could work and that the cost in minor compared to the payoff if it does work.

In which case, we need to think about Medical Ethics. Do we start experimenting with you and your loved ones?

Nobody is being experimented on or proposed to be experimented on. The proposal is to go and look for an attenuated strain and then decide what to do with it if we find one.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has only been proven lethal for very old and people with chronic illnesses. Those people should stay at home and practice distancing.

Are you just igoring news that fly in the face of what you're stating here? Have you looked at the current state of NYC?

My wording could be better I admit and yes I have looked at the NYC numbers that show 86% of deaths are due to underlying illnesses, source: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/07/new-yor...

Being old and having underlying illnesses is by far the biggest reason for deaths in NYC, with Hypertension and Diabetes being among the top risk factors.

Worryingly, in Sweden in the capital Stockholm, around 15% of the staff caring for the elderly have had Corona virus.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nature may have run enough experiments to know that the less deadly strain is as safe as a vaccine, but she won't just tell us that. We would have to discover it for ourselves with the same scientific method we use to interrogate vaccine candidates. Which BTW is the time-consuming part... we already have some candidates. This matters because if someone were to do anything to promote or help others infect themselves w…

Yes we use the scientific method of epidemiology - has been working since John Snow used it to determine that there was a cholera problem with the Broad Street Pump [1]. I am not encouraging anyone to do anything other than look for a natural attenuated strain. This point seems to be missed time and time again. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1854_Broad_Street_cholera_outb...

If you're proposing an investment of effort to find new information, it's absolutely fair game to ask what we will do with that information--how we will benefit from it.

a) We find a naturally attenuated strain and do nothing to promote or spread it.

b) We find such a strain and treat it like a vaccine candidate with all the testing.

c) We find such a strain and treat it like a vaccine candidate but without all the testing.

If someone does a) or b) they are on solid legal and scientific ground, but arguably have not created any new benefit beyond what is already happening to develop a vaccine.

Whoever does c) would certainly deliver a benefit in terms of speed... but if they cause any unexpected harm, would be exposed to legal liability.

I guess my fundamental question is whether the hard part of developing a vaccine is attenuating the virus or proving such attenuation is safe. Epidemiology can help us find natural versions of the former, but it can't help us with the latter.

Epidemiology cannot satisfy a question of safety. It can only identify risk factors, as John Snow did with the water pump. If your idea succeeds, at best we will be able to say "this strain seems to be a low risk factor for serious illness or death in this population." Then what?

The critical moment for cholera was to run an experiment: remove the pump handle and see what happens. But in the case of vaccines or vaccine-like strains, we are not talking about an experiment to remove a risk factor, we are talking about spreading a risk factor after properly qualifying its risk as low. That is much harder to do. The only way is to run a bunch of experiments.

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