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California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

gov.ca.gov

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Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#371

Post by simonh »

squillesque wrote: post #366
simonh wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cases reported per country, or state are only a narrow window into what is actually happening. The most advanced medical testing company in the world, Roche, is Swiss-German so Germany's testing capability relative to most countries is off the charts. Combined with a highly distributed, yet also highly co-ordinated health care system they have been ahead of the curve in testing on every conceivable metric. As a r…

But hospital admission cases depends on perceived hospital resources too... if people think going to the hospital is worse than staying at home, or impossible, that will distort conclusions also.

That's true, but is mainly a problem when comparing one country or region with another. Within a region, assuming a roughly stable general perception of hospital capability, it should till give a reasonable indication of the relative rise and fall in numbers of severe cases. I don't know, it's a really hard problem.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#372

Post by standardUser »

yodsanklai wrote: post #125
standardUser wrote: post #52

It's worth looking at Denmark, Austria, Czechia and other European countries that have already started loosening restrictions this week. Like California, they locked down fast and flattened the curve. Now, Denmark is opening school and all three (plus Germany and parts of Italy) are opening smaller non-essential shops. I haven't found great info on how well these countries have implemented contact tracing, but they d…

I don't think Europe is doing particularly well either. Well, at least France where I live. France is going to release lockdown in a month. My impression is that this is mostly for economical reasons because it was unsustainable. I'm not confident we'll deal with the epidemics much better this time. The gvt still hasn't released their roadmap, but they hope to improve their testing capacity, the availability of masks…

"France is going to release lockdown in a month."

I highly doubt that will happen. The preferred approach seems to be incremental opening to try and control the transmission rate. There might be one or two very stupid leaders who want to open things up with a bang (cough Trump cough), but the European nations currently easing restrictions seem to being doing so very cautiously.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#373

Post by yodsanklai »

standardUser wrote: post #372
yodsanklai wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Europe is doing particularly well either. Well, at least France where I live. France is going to release lockdown in a month. My impression is that this is mostly for economical reasons because it was unsustainable. I'm not confident we'll deal with the epidemics much better this time. The gvt still hasn't released their roadmap, but they hope to improve their testing capacity, the availability of masks…

"France is going to release lockdown in a month." I highly doubt that will happen. The preferred approach seems to be incremental opening to try and control the transmission rate. There might be one or two very stupid leaders who want to open things up with a bang (cough Trump cough), but the European nations currently easing restrictions seem to being doing so very cautiously.

You are correct. Most shops and schools are expected to re-open but things won't be back to normal. Restaurants and cafe will remain closed, and people at risk should remain home. They still need to figure out the details.

It seems that France is not much better prepared now that we were before the lockdown (masks/tests/contract tracing apps are still nowhere to be seen at that point).

As for our leaders, they distinguish themselves in their rhetorics and in some symbolic measures, but I have the feeling everyone is following the same path.

Exceptions are some Asian countries who seem to have the epidemics under control). They are the big winners...

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#374

Post by wbl »

adelHBN wrote: post #205
raphlinus wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They applied the combination of shoe leather and tech effectively. I think tech on its own without a robust public health infrastructure would be pretty ineffective, but the latter on its own could do well. https://khn.org/news/how-do-we-exit-the-shutdown-hire-an-arm...

I totally agree that only the combo works. But my concern is that we don't have the cohesive, political and business structure to pull off something like that.

I hope you remember next November that competence matters.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#375

Post by mikekij »

okintheory wrote: post #342
mikekij wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not. I am arguing that the current trajectory data we're observing [2] does not align with the projections of our current trajectory provided by the government of California (the light blue line labeled 'With Intervention' [1]) [1] https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California... . [2] https://covid-19.direct/state/CA

But you wrote "meaning that the graph of active hospitalizations should be a bell curve with a maximum value of ~10,000 on ~4/20."? You didn't mean that?

I meant that "the graph of active hospitalizations should be a bell curve with a maximum value of ~10,000 on ~4/20" with the current mitigations in place. That is not what the government report is projecting. They're projecting unbounded, exponential growth with current mitigations in place, even though that is not in line with the data we've seen over the past two weeks.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#376

Post by DanBC »

simonh wrote: post #353
jml7c5 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Something weird happened in California, where 20% of their tests were coming back positive, then all the sudden 04/04/2020 they started seeing This is not surprising. When tests were scarce, tests would be rationed to those most suspected of infection.

The cases reported per country, or state are only a narrow window into what is actually happening. The most advanced medical testing company in the world, Roche, is Swiss-German so Germany's testing capability relative to most countries is off the charts. Combined with a highly distributed, yet also highly co-ordinated health care system they have been ahead of the curve in testing on every conceivable metric. As a r…

> One way to mitigate that is to report only cases requiring hospital admission. This isn't ideal by any stretch,

It doesn't count all the frail people living in care or nursing homes who are put onto a palliative pathway and allowed to die, for example.

This could be about half of all Covid-19 deaths.

https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-co...

> Data from 3 epidemiological studies in the United States show that as many as half of people with COVID-19 infections in care homes were asymptomatic (or pre-symptomatic) at the time of testing

> Data from 5 European countries suggest that care home residents have so far accounted for between 42% and 57% of all deaths related to COVID-19.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#377

Post by tlb »

clairity wrote: post #282
tlb wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wear masks in public, even though I have no comorbidities, because of all the people I might subsequently spread it to if I got it. Remember that asymptomatic transmission for several days is common. Putting on a mask takes a few seconds, so compared to all the suffering it might prevent, even at 0.01% probability, it's well worth it.

no one is arguing that you disregard others, especially those who have comorbidities, only that a mask adds negligible risk reduction outside , above and beyond the natural physical distancing of strolling down the sidewalk. risks differ with context.

Do you have evidence that risk reduction outside is very small? I haven't seen any, and I think it would be nearly impossible to collect such evidence.

A plausible rule of thumb seems to be: if you could smell someone's cigarette smoke, you could inhale their viruses. I certainly smell smoke from smokers I pass on the street.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#378

Post by rhizome »

mc32 wrote: post #201
rhizome wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tests are still scarce.

Maybe but it’s all relative. Even a little less scarcity can change those numbers in significant ways.

I can't figure out what you mean, can I go someplace to get tested and put my mind at ease that I'm not about to die or kill my familymembers? That's the only "relative" that matters here.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#379

Post by leetcrew »

mchusma wrote: post #67

A real plan would look like this https://imgur.com/spemOeG specifying the levels of restrictions and the metrics we will use to track the metrics. This allows people to understand what to expect the best possible. We already have huge uncertainty, we don't need to add uncertainty of government response on top of uncertainty of the virus. I think there is huge room to debate the numbers and what goes in what level, bu…

requiring masks seems like a shitty policy when it's still pretty hard to get them. guess who will be disproportionately affected...

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#380

Post by throwaway237683 »

gdulli wrote: post #127
throwaway237683 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not crazy. It was very clear from the way the situation was handled even a month ago that CA and NY governors are not wasting time with this good crisis, and are using it for their political gain. The rampant fear mongering was used to overblow the severity of the situation and sell the idea of locking down hard before it's too late, completely disregarding the economy fallout, all the while projecting the ima…

I know it's folly but I'm trying to follow the logic here. Newsom and Cuomo, who won their offices fairly easily in their respective elections, seized on a plan to drastically hurt the economies of their respective states. Because, being the ones who took charge of the situation, that would gain some intangible leadership points that would increase their chances of winning their next elections despite the inevitable…

Not sure if it is folly for me to try and answer here (no idea if my reply is going to be visible). Thank you for trying to listen anyway.

There is no need to look for malice when there are simpler explanations. No, I do not think Newsom and Cuomo were actively trying to hurt their states' economies; what I said is that they are using the present crisis to advance their political goals _disregarding_ economic fallout. And you are telling it exactly: they are already seen as "taking charge of the situation" while the federal government was "doing nothing". I've seen Newsom being called the savior of the state (nation is the next step, yes) in press and here on HN. Contrast that with what WA state governor was/is doing - I don't even know his name!

I wouldn't try to make projections regarding chances for winning elections; something tells me though that severe unemployment and budget shortfalls are going to be blamed on someone else like federal government failing to provide relief, etc etc. There are all kinds of ways to spin the situation, I would leave that to professionals. There is going to be plenty of them hurting for work.

I live in California, in a smaller rural community way outside Bay Area. It hurts looking at the devastation this lockdown causes: boarded restaurant windows, closed businesses. It hurts listening to the local pediatrics calling us twice a day begging to schedule a virtual check-up "appointment" for kids basically so that they could bill our insurance and get paid _something_. It hurts when I stop by a grocery store and register clerk is happy just to see someone shopping so he could keep his job a little longer. I still have my cushy IT job but I don't have many illusions about keeping it for long if this goes on.

And all this carnage is for what? The latest numbers on Wikipedia state 128,000 deaths worldwide; you know, that's not very impressive for a zombie apocalypse. 760 people died in California so far. In mid-March we were told that California is 10 days behind Italy, and it's going to be hell in here soon. A month later, where is it?

Now take this "roadmap" that Newsom published yesterday. Literally the first bullet point talks about total Big Brother style tracing and monitoring as _necessity_ to even _think_ about lifting restrictions. You sincerely want me to believe all this is done for the sake of us plebe Joes?

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