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California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

gov.ca.gov

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Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#321

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

aylmao wrote: post #290
war1025 wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because you probably want to eat. And you probably want the electricity and internet to stay on. And you probably want things to continue to be available. All of those require the economy to be functioning.

All those need the supply lines and critical infrastructure to stay functioning, which they can be even if the rest of the "economy" isn't. What's needed is money for households to pay for them, which is the biggest concern at the moment, but which can technically be solved by giving households a cheque.

Many of the things currently shut down are part of supply lines and critical infrastructure in the long term. Eventually we're gonna have to print books and build cars.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#322

Post by dehrmann »

mikekij wrote: post #56
Ninjak8051 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Additionally, notice that the orange data points (actual hospitalizations) are significantly under the "With Intervention" plot. So why even include the slide? Clearly the assumptions behind the "With Intervention" plot do not match reality TODAY, let alone in a few weeks. Not a good sign if people are making actual decisions based on this.

My former physics professors would have not approved of a graph like this. D+ on the lab at best.

https://i.imgur.com/dJ7kHch.png

It's pretty sloppy to show surge capacity on the same graph as total hospitalizations, not active active hospitalizations.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#323

Post by irq11 »

Ankaios wrote: post #318
irq11 wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Currently >200k confirmed, NY population is 18.8M. 0.05% of the population has died.

New York City's population is around 8.5 M, and more then 10,000 people there have died from from the virus so far ( https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronav... ). That puts the toll over 0.1 %.

I cited the correct, current numbers for the entire state.

You’re citing numbers released by the city where they haven’t confirmed cases, so it doesn’t answer the OP’s question.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#324

Post by dehrmann »

anthony_doan wrote: post #245
0xy wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Australia and Singapore's governments are rolling out an app that allows them to track every person you meet with for more than a short period of time. Why would anyone trust them to not abuse this data? If they wanted people to volunteer information, maybe they shouldn't have repeatedly abused trust.

Singapore is often refer to as soft-authoritarian. It's like choosing N.Korea as an example and asking why you should trust them with your civil liberties. https://privacyinternational.org/sites/default/files/2017-12...

I'm honestly not sure what to make of the People's Action Party winning something like 80% of votes. That's a Putin level of popularity.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#325

Post by pm_me_ur_fullz »

war1025 wrote: post #292
randyrand wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you can go outside for exercise, walks, errands. etc.

This is something I feel kind of confused about. I live in Iowa, and we keep getting shit on from the national media for not having gone into "official" lockdown. Everything I've heard / read suggests we're in exactly the same amount of lockdown as anyone else. We just aren't calling it that.

Governors need to know their state and people so if most everyone is staying home and doing some recreational activities then an official health order may not be necessary. But typically what you see is that businesses full of contractors and/or near bankruptcy do not have the leadership to close down - the consequences and blowback is too high for them and they need a third party to force it. So barber shops, dental offices etc are doing silly things. Churches like tithes and the incentives are misaligned for them not to play on people's angst.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#326

Post by 0xy »

gdubs wrote: post #293
0xy wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, and it's worth noting that the death rate from economic damage could be significantly higher than the death rate from coronavirus. For each 1% increase in unemployment, several thousand people die. Unemployment substantially increases the risk of mortality.

Is the source on this fact “The Big Short”? Because, it’s contested and not black and white. Mortality rates actually decreased during the Great Depression. Also, this isn’t a normal “unemployment” situation either — disaster relief isn’t out of the question.

No, but I can't remember the source. Iirc if unemployed you have a >2.5x mortality rate of someone employed.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#327

Post by tomerico »

mikekij wrote: post #30

This entire plan is based on models that do not align with what we are seeing. The graph on slide two[1] of the official CA govt plan shows hospitalizations With Intervention rising exponentially, exceeding our hospital capacity in early June. The actual new infection data shows that the rate of new infections has been decreasing since at least 4/4 [2], meaning that the graph of active hospitalizations should be a be…

What bothers me the most is that the comparison is always against a hypothetical "do nothing" strategy, ignoring the fact that different countries have employed different strategies, some of them have been highly successful in containing the disease without any lock down (Korea, Taiwan, and Australia) come to mind.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#328

Post by Reelin »

hraer5her5he wrote: post #312
rhizome wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ugh. Why let green accounts post immediately?

In rare cases, it allows useful contributions or participation involving someone who has never used Hacker News before, but summoned to participate because the discussion involves them. There should be a flag that hides new users by default... but consider carefully if you really want to be that person that makes use of such a feature lol

I'd add that it's essential for throwaways, which are sometimes necessary for open discourse depending on the account and topic. Many highly active HN accounts are semi-professional, linking to off-site profiles.

The green seems to make for a good cautionary flag though.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#329

Post by TeMPOraL »

dehrmann wrote: post #319
xienze wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Clearly the assumptions behind the "With Intervention" plot do not match reality TODAY, let alone in a few weeks. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills with the way people are talking about this whole thing still being out of control, when data shows the situation is even better than the most optimistic models were predicting. And by that I mean, pretend I was on HN 3 weeks ago predicting 25K deaths in the USA by toda…

> I feel like I’m taking crazy pills with the way people are talking about this whole thing still being out of control A week ago, I remember reading how the Bay Area was bracing for a bracing for a surge and it was the calm before the storm. The Santa Clara county covid-19 dashboard told a different story: day-over-day, new cases were roughly the same for the past two weeks. 2+ weeks into the lockdown, there was obv…

Isn't this just California being in the "3.6 roentgen, not great, not terrible" phase? I.e. number of new cases reported is limited by the number of tests that are able to be made?

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#330

Post by ridaj »

tomerico wrote: post #327
mikekij wrote: post #30

This entire plan is based on models that do not align with what we are seeing. The graph on slide two[1] of the official CA govt plan shows hospitalizations With Intervention rising exponentially, exceeding our hospital capacity in early June. The actual new infection data shows that the rate of new infections has been decreasing since at least 4/4 [2], meaning that the graph of active hospitalizations should be a be…

What bothers me the most is that the comparison is always against a hypothetical "do nothing" strategy, ignoring the fact that different countries have employed different strategies, some of them have been highly successful in containing the disease without any lock down (Korea, Taiwan, and Australia) come to mind.

Aren't the techniques that Taiwan and Korea have employed (testing, isolation of known cases, contact tracing) irrelevant at this stage of contagion? I doubt of the efficacy of contact tracing when you have enough of a percentage of population infected that a single visit to Costco or any other supermarket would mean a very high chance of being there at the same time as an infectious person...
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