201–210 of 406 posts
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>Something weird happened in California, where 20% of their tests were coming back positive, then all the sudden 04/04/2020 they started seeing This is not surprising. When tests were scarce, tests would be rationed to those most suspected of infection.
Tests are still scarce.
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You can come into the state and you can leave the state, what state-level circumstance is preventing you? I'm grasping at straws but maybe you are estranged and your family is on the street but they won't let you into the hobo-hotel? Every other circumstance I can think of is a Federal issue closing borders for people that aren't Americans.
Isn’t CA under lockdown? Only supposed to leave your apartment for groceries right?
Just use your head, don't do things that will risk spreading the disease. Taking public transit to/from your family a few times a week is very dangerous. Going someplace and staying there is not.
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Fair questions. What fatality rate are you expecting for not-at-risk people? Is that risk of death acceptable to you? What risk of death should I expect, I'm a healthy 47 year old male. Is it 0.1% or 0.01%? The difference between those two matters to me and the research isn't clear yet as far as I can tell. By doing a bunch of the steps implied in the document my chance of surviving is better, by keeping the infectio…
Whatever number you arrive at is your concern. You want to shelter in place go for it. What I don't want is the government shutting down everything. Leave it to the individual.
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It seems like both the perception of and response to this pandemic are not reflective of reality. What am I getting wrong here? - Around 200 million Americans will eventually get it, barring extraordinary events (like a vaccine arriving in 6 months). We cannot change this. - Around 0.5% will die, overwhelmingly those who had a low remaining life expectancy to begin with. This is a much larger body count than most peo…
It’s not 0.5% it’s closer to 2%. You don’t have a normal economy if people don’t want to go out in public or the supply chain is interrupted as workers get sick. A pandemic will harm the economy no matter what we do, these efforts, it is hoped, will reduce the impact while also saving lives and the hospital system.
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Either works. South Korea applied tech pretty effectively.
They applied the combination of shoe leather and tech effectively. I think tech on its own without a robust public health infrastructure would be pretty ineffective, but the latter on its own could do well. https://khn.org/news/how-do-we-exit-the-shutdown-hire-an-arm...
a) California’s testing and reporting infrastructure is absolutely abysmal, arguably the worst in the country
b) there are very few signs that it will improve anytime soon
California leaders haven’t had to confront this publicly because much of the last one month had been focused almost exclusively on reducing fatalities and increasing hospital capacity. Testing matters but not that much for the most acute cases.
It matters a lot more in determining the the rate of incline/decline of new infections, both numbers that will increasingly matter more as fatalities and hospitalizations stabilize.
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Thanks for sharing the link. But how do you enforce stay-at-home policies or any rigorous public health policies, in populated counties that border each other, such as San Francisco and San Mateo counties, or LA and Orang counties.
The county health officials would presumably coordinate with each other, as San Francisco and San Mateo are already doing.
It doesn't make any sense that we continue the lockdown in its current state. Hospitals in California aren't overrun. We were insisted upon that the "flattening the curve" was to prevent the medical system from being overwhelmed. With what we've been able to do, we're not even close to having overrun hospitals. By now, we should have ramped up the system to account for greater numbers of severe cases. Given that, we…
If you filled up 25% of capacity with Covid patients, then you were only 2 doubling cycles (10 days) away from being having completely full hospitals. I don't think a 10 day buffer means that you're not even close to having overrun hospitals.
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Does anyone have the ability to walk through these explanations in a little more detail. I'm having trouble understanding why infections would be a bell curve, or derivative of a log curve.
Cumulative infections would not be a bell curve. They'd be a sigmoid curve, approaching some upper limit (e.g. 100,000). Current Hospitalizations, which is the number we should be most concerned about, and is reflected by the orange dots on the state's graph, should start low, max out at a number, and eventually return to 0. That should follow something like a bell curve. I think the confusion is between the "total i…
I think the confusion is that if the CDF is the logistic function, then the PDF is the logistic distribution. This is what archgoon is saying.
Bell curve refers to a Gaussian distribution, which is different but looks similar.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_distribution
http://visionlab.harvard.edu/Members/Anne/Math/Logistic_vs_G...
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It actually largely doesn't have that power. I mean, it does until challenged, and it could impose restrictions on entering government buildings -- but the government really doesn't have an unlimited authority to declare arbitrary restrictions on the right of people to peaceably assemble. Not legally, anyway.
I think we all know each right has its limits when the greater good is at stake. Largely, it's intent that matters.
I'm sure Earl Warren said that to himself when he locked up the Japanese Americans during WWII.