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L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

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Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#151

Post by CydeWeys »

williamstein wrote: post #147
CydeWeys wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Give it time. They're still in full exponential growth, whereas every place that enacted social distancing rules a couple weeks ago or more is now plateauing.

Sweden's number of confirmed cases is not in full exponential growth right now. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

They've fallen behind in testing capacity, like many others. You have to go by hospitalizations and confirmed deaths because those are the only stats likely not to be underreported too badly.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#152

Post by clouddrover »

CydeWeys wrote: post #150
clouddrover wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's the per capita death rate that matters the most of any metric. The US has the 15th highest per capita death rate. It's on track to go up in that ranking: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And Sweden is higher in the per capita death rate and on track to go up much higher in that ranking.

Yes. Contrast Sweden and the US to Australia and South Korea. Australia and South Korea are doing much better. The Australian and South Korean response has been competent.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#153

Post by CydeWeys »

vondur wrote: post #139
thaumaturgy wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been very hard for me to understand this line of thinking. As I see it, there are so few cases in California because of the measures that have been taken. Do you think California would not have many more cases if the measures were relaxed? Or do you think that the cases would not be all that bad? Or do you think that they would only affect people that you aren't personally concerned about? I'm asking honestly fo…

I totally believe that the coronavirus has been in California since December and peaked in February. I’m sure if we look back we can find evidence of people getting sick and recovering. Those who died were listed as death from pneumonia or something else.

If COVID-19 had been spreading uncontrolled in California for four months prior to containment measures being enacted, the number of deaths by now would be truly mind-boggling. It's simply not possible for this to have been the case, because it would have been obvious sheerly looking at the all-cause death rate in the state increasing by many times its normal value months ago. This didn't happen, ergo COVID-19 was not spreading uncontained in California for that long.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#154

Post by [deleted] »

tootie wrote: post #58
rock8y wrote: post #20

Things are much worse at Gannett, parent company of usatoday. Personally, being laid off on March 31! Almost every employee is effected at this time, either furloughed for few hours a week, pay cut or let go !!

I'm surprised. I'd think online news would be one of the industries benefitting from this crisis. Is the revenue tied to lack of conversions on online ads?

[deleted]

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#155

Post by adventured »

thaumaturgy wrote: post #35
tempsy wrote: post #26

I’m definitely in the camp that “the cure cannot be worse than the disease” itself. Sitting in California where there are so few cases makes me wonder if the economic toll is totally worth it. Seems like we’ve used a tsunami to put out a campfire.

It's been very hard for me to understand this line of thinking. As I see it, there are so few cases in California because of the measures that have been taken. Do you think California would not have many more cases if the measures were relaxed? Or do you think that the cases would not be all that bad? Or do you think that they would only affect people that you aren't personally concerned about? I'm asking honestly fo…

> As I see it, there are so few cases in California because of the measures that have been taken.

California has been spared because it's not in the Covid Belt. That's a term I've come up with to describe the ideal climate that SARS-CoV-2 thrives in. All hard hit regions exist in the Covid climate belt.

Not all the least hit areas (eg South Korea) exist outside of the Covid Belt. You can also limit its spread with other aggressive measures. Climate provides a substantial natural impediment, although it doesn't entirely stop the spread either. It's why Texas, New Mexico, Arizona look like they do right now versus Michigan and New York. It's not because Texas has had amazing testing and tracing and quarantine measures.

It's why Tehran was hammered by the virus but Baghdad was not. It wasn't luck, it wasn't testing, it wasn't tracing, it wasn't lockdown measures. Baghdad is a hotter climate than Tehran during the December > May time frame.

It's why Athens & Greece is largely spared but Milan is not. It's not because Greece implemented South Korea-style measures early on and they have a far better healthcare system than Britain. It's why Southern Italy is not hit like Northern Italy. They have different climates.

It's why Madrid is hit so hard but Barcelona and Lisbon are not. They have different climates.

It's why NYC is hit hard but San Francisco and Los Angeles and San Diego are not.

The entire San Diego County has 53 deaths.

It's why Texas is largely spared but Massachusetts and Michigan are not.

It's why Detroit was hit but Phoenix was not.

It's why Belgium and the Netherlands were hit but Mexico wasn't.

It's why Wuhan was hit but Hawaii and Jakarta and Singapore were not.

It's why Algiers (7.8m people in their metro, just south of Spain) isn't drowning in Covid cases and hasn't been hit like Madrid.

It's also why India and Pakistan have been largely spared bad outbreaks. Defying all predictions thus far to the contrary.

It's why Lagos Nigeria isn't being hit hard and the Netherlands and Britain were.

It's why Cairo isn't buried in dead bodies right now. The Cairo metro has 20 million people. Check out the temps in Cairo during the Nov > May time frame.

Look at the climates. Nearly all of the hardest hit areas exist in a sweet spot on temperature range.

Milan: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Wuhan: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

NYC: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Tehran: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

London: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Boston: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Chicago: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Now compare to

Baghdad: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Cairo: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Los Angeles: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Algiers: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Lagos: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Houston: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Phoenix: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Singapore: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Las Vegas: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

San Diego: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Athens: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

---

Compare Barcelona: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

To Madrid: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

Compare Milan again:https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

To Rome: https://weather-and-climate.com/uploads/average-temperature-...

See those higher highs through the flu season? That 8-10 degrees of higher temps throughout Winter is the difference. Getting as close to the ~55-60 F or higher temp zone at the highs as possible during Winter is where you want to be. The regions that are, have seen dramatically fewer cases. This spans all variations of circumstances between nations (rich vs poor, good testing vs weak testing etc). At 64 degrees F and above, we know that influenza, for example, is heavily impeded by the heat.

This is why so many experts have been predicting a big downturn in the virus as Spring & Summer temperatures roll in.

This has already been shown by several studies. We already know why. 90-95% of all cases of transmission have occurred in the Covid Belt areas that have ideal climates for the transmission of the virus (otherwise Africa would be drowning in Covid deaths right now).

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#156

Post by Jommi »

bootlooped wrote: post #118
tootie wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm surprised. I'd think online news would be one of the industries benefitting from this crisis. Is the revenue tied to lack of conversions on online ads?

Brands are sensitive to where their ads appear. Many brands do not want their ads adjacent to COVID 19 content.

I'm still unsure how and if this is really even true nowadays. We have been doing programmatic ads for ages. We should be over this.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#157

Post by kmtrowbr »

CydeWeys wrote: post #146
kmtrowbr wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

common cold = caused by coronaviruses, COVID-19 = an uncommonly deadly coronavirus RNA viruses have a faster mutation rate than DNA viruses. Chickenpox = DNA virus, Coronavirus = RNA virus. That Chickenpox is a DNA virus is why, like HIV, it can survive in the body for the long term and re-emerge decades later as shingles. DNA has a double helix which has error-correction and is more stable. However that makes it als…

Nope. The common cold is a catch-all term for over 200 different mild upper respiratory viruses, the clear majority of which are not coronaviruses. The most common strain of virus causing the common cold is a rhinovirus, which does have the property of mutating well and thus being hard to develop a resistance to. It is true that some of the common cold strains are coronavirus, but not most of them, and regardless, th…

It seems like you know more than I do -- that's good news, thank you for correcting me! I was wrong about coronavirus causing all forms of the common cold. They only cause 15%, whereas rhinoviruses as you say, cause 30–80%.

Still, "the Coronavirus" COVID-19 causing virus is an RNA virus correct? Those mutate rapidly & in fact, evading immune systems via rapid evolution, is part of what has allowed RNA viruses to exist & thrive.

This fact of being an RNA virus, might be one reason that making a vaccine is difficult & that long term immunity is in question: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA_virus#Mutation_rates

> Preliminary analysis of COVID-19 indicates that catching it once is likely to confer life-long immunity.

I wasn't able to find this in your links. Regardless, I hope that is the case.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#158

Post by Jommi »

adventured wrote: post #155
thaumaturgy wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been very hard for me to understand this line of thinking. As I see it, there are so few cases in California because of the measures that have been taken. Do you think California would not have many more cases if the measures were relaxed? Or do you think that the cases would not be all that bad? Or do you think that they would only affect people that you aren't personally concerned about? I'm asking honestly fo…

> As I see it, there are so few cases in California because of the measures that have been taken. California has been spared because it's not in the Covid Belt. That's a term I've come up with to describe the ideal climate that SARS-CoV-2 thrives in. All hard hit regions exist in the Covid climate belt. Not all the least hit areas (eg South Korea) exist outside of the Covid Belt. You can also limit its spread with ot…

It seems to all fit together but I would not be too hasty in proclaiming the actual heat to be the affecting factor. Colder place will naturally be more densely populated for example.

Re: L.A. Times to Furlough Workers as Ad Revenue ‘Nearly Eliminated’

#160

Post by thaumaturgy »

vondur wrote: post #139
thaumaturgy wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been very hard for me to understand this line of thinking. As I see it, there are so few cases in California because of the measures that have been taken. Do you think California would not have many more cases if the measures were relaxed? Or do you think that the cases would not be all that bad? Or do you think that they would only affect people that you aren't personally concerned about? I'm asking honestly fo…

I totally believe that the coronavirus has been in California since December and peaked in February. I’m sure if we look back we can find evidence of people getting sick and recovering. Those who died were listed as death from pneumonia or something else.

The main snag with this model is hospitalizations. Even if we grant that there was no testing available, and that early deaths of covid19 would have been attributed to cardiac disease or pneumonia, and that there may have been some kind of less lethal early strain or some other voodoo, the hospitalization rate would still be expected to be constant, and it hasn't been. Health care workers have broadly been reporting pretty typical case loads up until early to mid March.

For some corroborating data, there's a "smart thermometer" company [1] that uses the aggregated data from their thermometers to maintain health "weather" metrics for the US [2]. Right on their health weather page, you can see a chart showing typical rates for seasonal infections across the US, up until March 1st. And if you're concerned that New York is tilting the results, then you can even zoom in to the San Francisco area [3] and see the same behavior.

Kinsa's CEO has published a writeup on medium [4] that compares a couple of different areas with different responses and timelines, and he says that the data he's seeing suggests that stay-at-home orders are making a big difference in infection rates. They have more stuff like this on their Twitter account [5].

I would think that if this were the same disease all the way back in December, the data would look very different. There'd be no explanation for the fall-off of fever rates all the way up to March 1, when it suddenly started climbing.

[1]: https://www.kinsahealth.co/

[2]: https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical

[3]: https://healthweather.us/?regionId=06075&mode=Atypical

[4]: https://medium.com/@inders/your-sacrifices-are-saving-lives-...

[5]: https://twitter.com/kinsa

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