Are we in another bubble? Empirical data from CrunchBase
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Re: Are we in another bubble? Empirical data from CrunchBase
#2Based on the last graph we aren't in a tech bubble _yet_
We are just entering the last quarter of 1998.
Re: Are we in another bubble? Empirical data from CrunchBase
#3A 38% decline in number of startups and a 31% increase in investments!
Also the underlying assumption seems to be exponential increase is the only reason for a bubble.
Re: Are we in another bubble? Empirical data from CrunchBase
#4There's no discussion here about revenues. Wouldn't the only reasonable metric indicating a bubble be over-valuation of companies?
Re: Are we in another bubble? Empirical data from CrunchBase
#5Take this with a grain of salt.
CrunchBase does not by any means offer stable and comprehensive picture over the years. It has been maintained with different levels of commitment, especially for entering in old data (since Crunchbase did not exist in 2000).
CrunchBase is a great resource, but doing those kinds of statistics without appropriate research of how consistent is the coverage is at least sloppy if not willful negligence.
Re: Are we in another bubble? Empirical data from CrunchBase
#6Take this with a grain of salt. CrunchBase does not by any means offer stable and comprehensive picture over the years. It has been maintained with different levels of commitment, especially for entering in old data (since Crunchbase did not exist in 2000). CrunchBase is a great resource, but doing those kinds of statistics without appropriate research of how consistent is the coverage is at least sloppy if not willf…
I agree. The data is not consistent but it's probably the most well-maintained and accessible data (with its api) to my knowledge.
That is the reason I look at investments from 2005 since most investments prior to that were not entered.
Re: Are we in another bubble? Empirical data from CrunchBase
#7There's no discussion here about revenues. Wouldn't the only reasonable metric indicating a bubble be over-valuation of companies?
It would help but most private companies don't report annual revenues.
Re: Are we in another bubble? Empirical data from CrunchBase
#8I wouldn't trust CrunchBase for reliable trend data because its coverage over time is unlikely to be consistent. But, a similar analysis based on legally-required (and thus comprehensive) SEC Form Ds might give stronger insight.
At least two Form-D watching services have been mentioned previously on HN:
Though, I think they're relying on easier electronic access that may not go back more than a few years.
Re: Are we in another bubble? Empirical data from CrunchBase
#9There's no discussion here about revenues. Wouldn't the only reasonable metric indicating a bubble be over-valuation of companies?
It would help but most private companies don't report annual revenues.
Sure, well any conclusions in the absence of valuation or revenue data seem moot to me.
Re: Are we in another bubble? Empirical data from CrunchBase
#10Take this with a grain of salt. CrunchBase does not by any means offer stable and comprehensive picture over the years. It has been maintained with different levels of commitment, especially for entering in old data (since Crunchbase did not exist in 2000). CrunchBase is a great resource, but doing those kinds of statistics without appropriate research of how consistent is the coverage is at least sloppy if not willf…
I agree. The data is not consistent but it's probably the most well-maintained and accessible data (with its api) to my knowledge. That is the reason I look at investments from 2005 since most investments prior to that were not entered.
The data is useful, but not in a way you used it.
I don't think you did a good job of disclosing or the problems that might lie in the data.
Since I've been following crunchbase both from the data perspective and from the perspective of how much resources TechCrunch is devoting to it, I can assure you it varies wildly.
Also the editorial policy has changed a lot in that period, in about 2007/2008 they started putting much more emphasis on international start-ups. So there are specific skews that you should be aware of and disclose them in the blog post.
So I think you did a nice job, but conclusions are not to be trusted at tall. Yes it might be the most well-maintained open data out there, but it does not make it in any more useful for this kind of analysis.