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California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

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Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#101

Post by riazrizvi »

mikekij wrote: post #30

This entire plan is based on models that do not align with what we are seeing. The graph on slide two[1] of the official CA govt plan shows hospitalizations With Intervention rising exponentially, exceeding our hospital capacity in early June. The actual new infection data shows that the rate of new infections has been decreasing since at least 4/4 [2], meaning that the graph of active hospitalizations should be a be…

This plan also ignores the question of the majority of people who have likely been infected with no symptoms that could be identified with widespread Serology/Antibody tests. I find it alarming that this plan ignores that, is the governor priming is for population wide vaccination that is likely to be unnecessary? If we confirm widespread recovery and immunity then larger numbers of people can get back to life as usual quite soon.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#102

Post by mchusma »

phkahler wrote: post #97
mchusma wrote: post #67

A real plan would look like this https://imgur.com/spemOeG specifying the levels of restrictions and the metrics we will use to track the metrics. This allows people to understand what to expect the best possible. We already have huge uncertainty, we don't need to add uncertainty of government response on top of uncertainty of the virus. I think there is huge room to debate the numbers and what goes in what level, bu…

>> I like many others are deeply upset by leadership from both parties, at all levels of government. I'm sitting at home in Michigan where the governor has closed almost all businesses. Politicians bicker over weather governors or the president have the authority to reopen things. And yet there is no plan as far as I can see. No goals, no criteria to trigger next steps, nothing. Meanwhile the press just snipes at peo…

It's also not like politicians are busy working on a cure. Almost their sole job right now is to communicate an exit strategy. And they can't even properly align text on slides (I don't actually care about that except as a symbol of how little attention to detail they put into this).

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#103

Post by raphlinus »

mlindner wrote: post #89
munk-a wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has value - it should just be treated very skeptically. And, honestly, the US numbers are highly inaccurate as well due to a simply lack of an ability to test (instead of a lack of will to publish the real numbers).

The casualty numbers are quite accurate. The US records every cause of death.

https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1250170016504430595

@MarkLevineNYC BREAKING: NYC publishes, for first time, data on fatalities that includes "probable" cases (those without a confirmed test result).

It has pushed the death toll in NYC up by 57%.

Was 6,589 before this adjustment. Now stands at 10,367. This is a painful but necessary accounting.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#104

Post by gizmo686 »

mlindner wrote: post #89
munk-a wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has value - it should just be treated very skeptically. And, honestly, the US numbers are highly inaccurate as well due to a simply lack of an ability to test (instead of a lack of will to publish the real numbers).

The casualty numbers are quite accurate. The US records every cause of death.

The US cannot record data it doesn't have. Covid is only the cause of death if the deceased had Covid; and we cannot know that unless we can test them. In aggragate, we can sidestep this issue by looking at excess death, but that is non-trivial (particuarly because the behavioural changes mean that we would expect other causes of death to differ in unknown ways). At the end of this, I would expect to get fairly accurate estimates for how many died to Covid, but while we are in the middle of it, the numbers are very murky.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#105

Post by bluedays »

DennisP wrote: post #57
wbl wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contact tracing requires shoe leather not tech.

Either works. South Korea applied tech pretty effectively.

Neither works as well as bother together. There are lots of places I go without my phone. There are lots of places I wouldn't report going, but the phone data would say otherwise.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#107

Post by raphlinus »

DennisP wrote: post #57
wbl wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contact tracing requires shoe leather not tech.

Either works. South Korea applied tech pretty effectively.

They applied the combination of shoe leather and tech effectively. I think tech on its own without a robust public health infrastructure would be pretty ineffective, but the latter on its own could do well.

https://khn.org/news/how-do-we-exit-the-shutdown-hire-an-arm...

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#108

Post by clairity »

hilbertseries wrote: post #61
dickjocke wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the live address they said that most implementations will be left to the county and local govts. The state isn't giving any specific guidance on masks, for example, leaving that to specific locales.

LA county now requires anyone entering an essential business to wear a mask.

this is probably a little overly cautious relative to the actual reduction in risk (you'd have to be especially unlucky to get infected just from regular breathing in a grocery store), but not terribly unreasonable, particularly for those with co-morbidities.

but i routinely see people with masks and gloves on while walking outside. not shopping, or going to shop, just walking. it's so odd, and frankly, wasteful.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#109

Post by charlesju »

mchusma wrote: post #67

A real plan would look like this https://imgur.com/spemOeG specifying the levels of restrictions and the metrics we will use to track the metrics. This allows people to understand what to expect the best possible. We already have huge uncertainty, we don't need to add uncertainty of government response on top of uncertainty of the virus. I think there is huge room to debate the numbers and what goes in what level, bu…

The reason why your solution is not good is because it pigeon holes the government into expectations. The government doesn't have a crystal ball as to how this all plays out, they need to have the flexibility to change how they want to respond to each situation without having to defend an ultimatum.

For example, even in your own example here are several situations you didn't account:

-- The availability of tests for the public at large

-- Whether we're doing temperature checks everywhere

-- Whether we're requiring people to download a contact tracing app

-- How much capacity we have in the hospital system even though cases are going down

-- If we can find a drug that helps shorten the time people spend in a hospital

-- If we find new information like masks don't help or they greatly help

-- We run out of swabs but cases are low

There are a lot of factors that has to go into how the government changes the rules and while it might make it easier for the public to be at ease when the rules are hard, it also makes it a lot harder to adjust the rules.

I think being upset at the government is your right, but I also think you should channel your energy into something more productive and thank that at least in California we acted a lot faster than other areas of the country.

I think Governor Cuomo said something very interesting the other day, to paraphrase, when he was asked whether he should've started stay at home earlier and if that would've saved lives. Of course it would have, but the interviewer is not taking into account compliance and public sentiment. Likewise, for you, I think you're viewing this problem from a very individualistic point of view to get strict rules on what happens when, but you're not accounting for the edge cases where the government needs a backdoor to change the rules with new information and to play it close to public sentiment.

Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]

#110

Post by Gibbon1 »

riazrizvi wrote: post #101
mikekij wrote: post #30

This entire plan is based on models that do not align with what we are seeing. The graph on slide two[1] of the official CA govt plan shows hospitalizations With Intervention rising exponentially, exceeding our hospital capacity in early June. The actual new infection data shows that the rate of new infections has been decreasing since at least 4/4 [2], meaning that the graph of active hospitalizations should be a be…

This plan also ignores the question of the majority of people who have likely been infected with no symptoms that could be identified with widespread Serology/Antibody tests. I find it alarming that this plan ignores that, is the governor priming is for population wide vaccination that is likely to be unnecessary? If we confirm widespread recovery and immunity then larger numbers of people can get back to life as usu…

The plan ignores that because people working on this are consistently finding infection rates of less than a few percent. Stanford tested 2888 samples that were negative for flu and other respiratory viruses and didn't find any positive for SAR-COV2 until Feb 21st and Feb23.
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