Why is the April section of the "removal of intervention" curve below the "with intervention" curve? Particularly since there are actual "hospitalizations" data points plotted along the former?
California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
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Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#12I personally think we need a county-by-county approach. There is a high variation of the infection at local levels. All the news is currently about how bad New York is and it's true but we're not all New York. http://www.countycovid19.com/
Problem is the travel between counties, at least in CA. There's a lot of travel that could cause reinfection.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#13Am I missing something? I don't see any kind of roadmap in here - it's just 6 generic talking points without any actual plan or timeline.
He said during the press conference that exact dates might be available in two-four weeks. He wants to see a further reduction in hospitalizations, an increase in testing, and a supply chain for PPE before committing to reopening dates.
Ok, thanks for the additional context. Was there any mention of actual targets for these things? Ex. "I'd like to see a 10% reduction of hospitalizations and at least 1M tests."
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#14My favorite line so far. Opening up areas of the country in an uncoordinated fashion is like having a peeing section in a pool...
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#15I personally think we need a county-by-county approach. There is a high variation of the infection at local levels. All the news is currently about how bad New York is and it's true but we're not all New York. http://www.countycovid19.com/
In the live address they said that most implementations will be left to the county and local govts. The state isn't giving any specific guidance on masks, for example, leaving that to specific locales.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#16I personally think we need a county-by-county approach. There is a high variation of the infection at local levels. All the news is currently about how bad New York is and it's true but we're not all New York. http://www.countycovid19.com/
Problem is the travel between counties, at least in CA. There's a lot of travel that could cause reinfection.
I'm not too sure reinfection is as important mathematically as some think when you realize the goal will be to operate below a threshold of cases, not eliminate covid entirely.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#17I personally think we need a county-by-county approach. There is a high variation of the infection at local levels. All the news is currently about how bad New York is and it's true but we're not all New York. http://www.countycovid19.com/
It's true that regions are different, but I don't see how that translates. Can you be specific? How would a plan for Queens County, NY differ from one for Waukesha WI, except in trivial stuff like dates? Some outbreaks are smaller, but you'll note that they all leveled off at roughly the same time and on the same schedule. That's because we locked down on "New York's schedule"[1]. If we didn't, these places which see…
Jay Inslee and the Seattle Flu Study. Without the flu study going against medical guidelines (along with the guidance of the CDC to adhere to those guidelines) and testing some of their samples for COVID-19 (which isn't what they were collected for), Washington's timeline would have been pushed much further back.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#18> Slide 1: How prepared is our state to test everyone who is symptomatic?
Positive tests could trigger notifications based on data collected by voluntary contact tracing apps. By only testing the symptomatic, mathematical models will continue to lack data for the subset of population that is already immune.
We also need to test asymptomatic cases that would benefit from therapeutics which work best in early stages. We need to avoid cases reaching late-stage, where e.g. > 80% of people on ventilators do not survive. The federal government has allowed pharmacies to administer tests, once these become available.
> Slide 5: Have we worked with businesses to support physical distancing practices and introduced guidelines to provide health checks when employees or the general public enter the premises?
Is this alternate A/B work days for employees to reduce building occupancy by 50%? Do "health checks" mean forehead or long-distance thermal sensor temperature measurements before employees (customers?) enter buildings?
> Slide 6: Do we have the ability to quickly communicate the need to reinstate these measures?
Existing SMS text messaging for government alerts. No need for dedicated/mandatory apps.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#19My favorite line so far. Opening up areas of the country in an uncoordinated fashion is like having a peeing section in a pool...
It's not actually a very good analogy.
A peeing section in a pool simply diffuses and doesn't spontaneously generate another high-density peeing section elsewhere in the pool.
We wish Covid-19 would simply diffuse down with distance.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#20I personally think we need a county-by-county approach. There is a high variation of the infection at local levels. All the news is currently about how bad New York is and it's true but we're not all New York. http://www.countycovid19.com/
It's true that regions are different, but I don't see how that translates. Can you be specific? How would a plan for Queens County, NY differ from one for Waukesha WI, except in trivial stuff like dates? Some outbreaks are smaller, but you'll note that they all leveled off at roughly the same time and on the same schedule. That's because we locked down on "New York's schedule"[1]. If we didn't, these places which see…
Don't forget Newsom, who issued the first state-wide shelter in place order. That has been invaluable in keeping California safe(r).