California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
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Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#2This has far less content and fewer concrete action items than the lowest-tier Mckinsey or Accenture report. And that is setting a very low bar.
The roadmap appears to be "we have no idea, so we'll set un-measurable goals and pretend we've hit them, once the collateral damage of economic collapse is unbearably large"
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#3Am I missing something? I don't see any kind of roadmap in here - it's just 6 generic talking points without any actual plan or timeline.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#4I’d like to see something that’s clear and doesn’t risk so much on rapid accurate testing and tracking of... everyone with significant delayed feedback. Something that could be done in rural areas or even developing countries. A reliable next step in the Hammer and the Dance.
I found this: http://pandemicbreak.org/
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#5Am I missing something? I don't see any kind of roadmap in here - it's just 6 generic talking points without any actual plan or timeline.
He said during the press conference that exact dates might be available in two-four weeks. He wants to see a further reduction in hospitalizations, an increase in testing, and a supply chain for PPE before committing to reopening dates.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#6I’d like to see something that’s clear and doesn’t risk so much on rapid accurate testing and tracking of... everyone with significant delayed feedback. Something that could be done in rural areas or even developing countries. A reliable next step in the Hammer and the Dance. I found this: http://pandemicbreak.org/
Anecdote: My wife and I were tested at Stanford today. There was no line, the process took 5-10 minutes and we never left the car. We were told to expect results in 24 hours.
Widespread testing might not be that far off and feedback might not be that delayed.
Edit: Since HN won't let me comment fast enough I figured I'd share the information here.
We were referred to Stanford by our PCP yesterday. We were not members of Stanford Health prior. The process looked like this:
- Video chatted with our PCP yesterday evening, who referred us to Stanford Health.
- Video chatted a few hours later with a physician from Stanford Health who approved the test.
- Scheduled the test for noon the next day
We are not overtly symptomatic for most of the symptoms (at the moment, it has been worse) and have not travelled abroad in a relevant timespan.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#7I personally think we need a county-by-county approach. There is a high variation of the infection at local levels. All the news is currently about how bad New York is and it's true but we're not all New York. http://www.countycovid19.com/
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#8This has far less content and fewer concrete action items than the lowest-tier Mckinsey or Accenture report. And that is setting a very low bar. The roadmap appears to be "we have no idea, so we'll set un-measurable goals and pretend we've hit them, once the collateral damage of economic collapse is unbearably large"
I think that's largely true, because no one has good answers here. All reasonable plans cannot be feasibly financed at the state level in the USA.
Still, it seems like a properly framed argument like yours would need to start with "They have no plan" and then move on to... a plan.
There are no good plans. At the end of the day we stay home, wait for infection rates to go down, and then spend a ton of money on testing and tracing. The other alternatives are to re-spawn the outbreak or to wait for a vaccine, both of which are even more expensive.
But that plan needs to happen at the federal level, California doesn't have the money.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#9I personally think we need a county-by-county approach. There is a high variation of the infection at local levels. All the news is currently about how bad New York is and it's true but we're not all New York. http://www.countycovid19.com/
It's true that regions are different, but I don't see how that translates. Can you be specific? How would a plan for Queens County, NY differ from one for Waukesha WI, except in trivial stuff like dates?
Some outbreaks are smaller, but you'll note that they all leveled off at roughly the same time and on the same schedule. That's because we locked down on "New York's schedule"[1]. If we didn't, these places which seem to have "handled" the outbreak would look like New York.
The plans should absolutely be regional in that the lockdown rules should be based on infection rate thresholds, etc... But to do that they all need exactly the same per-capita testing resources. It's the same plan.
[1] Really that's not true. We locked down on Seattle's schedule, because they moved first on most things. Seattle had by far the biggest early outbreak, but peaked earlier, peaked lower, and is now one of the better managed areas in the country. Cuomo gets all the attention but it's really Jay Inslee who saved us all.
Re: California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
#10I’d like to see something that’s clear and doesn’t risk so much on rapid accurate testing and tracking of... everyone with significant delayed feedback. Something that could be done in rural areas or even developing countries. A reliable next step in the Hammer and the Dance. I found this: http://pandemicbreak.org/
Wouldn't the delay of feedback result in more conservative changes? If we're detecting the peak with a delayed measurement, then the instantaneous measurement would be even further past the peak.