61–70 of 134 posts
Stock market doesn't seem to agree with this conclusion.
I don't know how anyone can trust the stock market right now. We're living in unprecedented uncertainty and on top of that, [literally] everything's closed and no one is buying anything, how can the economy possibly be growing like the market right now? Hot air that will crash eventually.
same 'analysts' mostly didn't notice a 11M city going into full lockdown.
Tech's been living in a bubble for a long time and reality is starting to hit. Get out and talk to real people, not your Slack buddies working in SF.
I don't get what the point of still using the term "recession" is. Even if it's temporary, this is a full-blown depression right?
How is it a depression if it's only been a few months? Also the IMF article predicts a 3% contraction for 2020 and a 5.8% growth in 2021, so by what definition is this a depression?
I wonder how they get those numbers. At least half the US economy is in shutdown right now. Two months of that is equivalent to one month of the whole economy being shutdown; to 1/12th of annual GDP lost, or around 8.3%. Add another month and its 12.5% of output lost.
The important question is whether the recession due to the lockdown (which is at least useful for stopping the virus) will continue after the virus has passed and the lockdown is lifted.
There will be huge shift in structure of business. Many small mom and pop shops are not coming back. Big chains, and franchises survive. Permanent changes in customer behavior. Many people with resistance and habits against 'new ways' are forced to learn internet shopping and delivery. Their habits can change permanently.
Yes, many of the ones that shut will not reopen. But new ones will be started. Over time, not all at once.
The unemployment rate isn't even close to the 10% we saw after the '08 recession. Only about half. Does that mean that twice as many people are going to become unemployed, than are right now?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is it a depression if it's only been a few months? Also the IMF article predicts a 3% contraction for 2020 and a 5.8% growth in 2021, so by what definition is this a depression?
An unemployment rate of around 13% (as of two weeks ago[1], so probably even higher now) doesn't seem like it's going to just magically resolve itself, and it's going to have drastic effects. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-jobles...
>Be warned, these numbers yield an imprecise estimate of today’s unemployment rate, and the truth could easily be quite a lot higher or lower. This is not an estimate of the official unemployment rate for March, which reports the state of the economy a few weeks ago when the labor market was in better shape, nor is it a forecast for the official rate in April.
I don't find it useful to implicitly embed a financial forecasting model in the use of the term "depression".
I think historians will look back at COVID-19 as a textbook way not to handle an emergency. They will point out that 99% of deaths were related to economic effects of our response, not the disease itself. Hundreds of millions will starve or die in failed states in an economic slowdown, while only hundreds of thousands die of disease.
The important question is whether the recession due to the lockdown (which is at least useful for stopping the virus) will continue after the virus has passed and the lockdown is lifted.
There will be huge shift in structure of business. Many small mom and pop shops are not coming back. Big chains, and franchises survive. Permanent changes in customer behavior. Many people with resistance and habits against 'new ways' are forced to learn internet shopping and delivery. Their habits can change permanently.
I think historians will look back at COVID-19 as a textbook way not to handle an emergency. They will point out that 99% of deaths were related to economic effects of our response, not the disease itself. Hundreds of millions will starve or die in failed states in an economic slowdown, while only hundreds of thousands die of disease.
How do people die from an economic slowdown? Maybe in poor countries but I don't think in a developed country an economic slowdown should kill anybody.
So recession in the US will lead to people dying.
Stock market doesn't seem to agree with this conclusion.
I don't know how anyone can trust the stock market right now. We're living in unprecedented uncertainty and on top of that, [literally] everything's closed and no one is buying anything, how can the economy possibly be growing like the market right now? Hot air that will crash eventually.