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I have experience in Go, Ruby, Python and I'm excited to hack again.
I mean, by default, any economic crisis is always going to be worse than/bigger than the previous, just due to growth. Am I wrong for thinking this way?
> That compares to a January projection of 3.3% expansion and would likely mark the deepest dive since the Great Depression. It would also dwarf the 0.1% contraction of 2009 amid the financial crisis.
Growth would have an impact on the decline in absolute dollar values (inflation adjusted or not). But wouldn't have much of an impact on relative decline measured in percentage.
The economy is basically a big network of relationships; employee relationships, business relationships, etc. Unfortunately such relationships tend to break quickly and in a self reinforcing cascade but can only be rebuilt slowly as businesses find that there is enough profit margin and demand to bring new people in, one at a time. That’s why recessions happen quickly and recovery time is proportional to how many peo…
The important question is whether the recession due to the lockdown (which is at least useful for stopping the virus) will continue after the virus has passed and the lockdown is lifted.
There will be huge shift in structure of business. Many small mom and pop shops are not coming back. Big chains, and franchises survive. Permanent changes in customer behavior. Many people with resistance and habits against 'new ways' are forced to learn internet shopping and delivery. Their habits can change permanently.
I don't get what the point of still using the term "recession" is. Even if it's temporary, this is a full-blown depression right?
The unemployment rate isn't even close to the 10% we saw after the '08 recession. Only about half. Does that mean that twice as many people are going to become unemployed, than are right now?
This certainly feels real to me. Yesterday, I was laid off from my job at Easypost. We had a very big and very painful layoff because my company took on way too much leverage. The circumstances of COVID19 were tough to foresee but I really wish we hadn't taken on so much debt while times were good. I have experience in Go, Ruby, Python and I'm excited to hack again.
https://www.massive.se/job/online-infrastructure-engineer-si...
On the other hand, new streams of revenue as well as increases in existing revenue streams are emerging as a result of the lockdowns. The question is, will these increases fully offset the permanent loss of existing revenues + the cascading costs of disruption due to things like job losses.
To expand a bit on how to think about the problem in general:
Don't focus on revenue when looking at the situation, focus on productivity and what people can and do produce.
A few people are busier, some are just as busy as before. Most are less busy and severely restricted in what economically useful activities they can do.
I don't get what the point of still using the term "recession" is. Even if it's temporary, this is a full-blown depression right?
How is it a depression if it's only been a few months? Also the IMF article predicts a 3% contraction for 2020 and a 5.8% growth in 2021, so by what definition is this a depression?