Earlier quoted context omitted.
Gotta reinflate the bubble at any cost
It pays for pensions and old people vote a lot. So you can see why it might be a priority for politicians.
A lot of us mid-career folks have retirement funds too. And a goal.
IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since Depression
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Re: IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since Depression
#22Stock market doesn't seem to agree with this conclusion.
I don't know how anyone can trust the stock market right now. We're living in unprecedented uncertainty and on top of that, [literally] everything's closed and no one is buying anything, how can the economy possibly be growing like the market right now?
Hot air that will crash eventually.
Re: IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since Depression
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
Of course. Many businesses that have closed will not reopen.
I'm curious about the effects of all the consolidation. The top 5 retail giants will, for example, absorb more market share.
wouldn't be so sure. small businesses probably have a somewhat higher ability to go into a sleeper mode where operative costs are reduced to a minimum.
Re: IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since Depression
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think parent comment means "why don't all these poor people just sell a few of their shares, they'll be fine". They're saying that the stock market value reflects traders' view of the future economy based on current information and that it is not as low as it would be if those traders all agreed with the current headline. (I'm not saying that I think the stock market is a good indicator of future economic gro…
> They're saying that the stock market value reflects traders' view of the future economy based on current information and that it is not as low as it would be if those traders all agreed with the current headline. I'd say the stock market value reflects traders' short term opportunistic view of what they can make in the stock market - especially with a huge stimulus package landing. So basically a bet on companies,…
Companies are ultimately dependent on working people income because in the absence of big government, companies are ultimately dependent on consumer spending.
Re: IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since Depression
#25Re: IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since Depression
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
trillions of dollars injected into it may have that effect.
Gotta reinflate the bubble at any cost
Oh come on guys, I know that was a flippant comment but you see my point right? Due to the short term election cycle every politician has an incredibly short time horizon; in this case trump is trying to make things go back to normal by November and it’s just an impossible task. So the only thing he can do is massive stimulus and prayer.
I guess this being HN people are more used to long winded soliloquies than single sentence terse remarks, served me right I suppose.
Re: IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since Depression
#27The unemployment rate isn't even close to the 10% we saw after the '08 recession. Only about half. Does that mean that twice as many people are going to become unemployed, than are right now?
Re: IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since Depression
#28The economy is basically a big network of relationships; employee relationships, business relationships, etc. Unfortunately such relationships tend to break quickly and in a self reinforcing cascade but can only be rebuilt slowly as businesses find that there is enough profit margin and demand to bring new people in, one at a time. That’s why recessions happen quickly and recovery time is proportional to how many peo…
It seems likely though that lots of people after the lockdowns will simply be re-hired once lockdowns are over.
Re: IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since Depression
#29I don't get what the point of still using the term "recession" is. Even if it's temporary, this is a full-blown depression right?
Re: IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since Depression
#30The important question is whether the recession due to the lockdown (which is at least useful for stopping the virus) will continue after the virus has passed and the lockdown is lifted.
There will be huge shift in structure of business.
Many small mom and pop shops are not coming back. Big chains, and franchises survive.
Permanent changes in customer behavior. Many people with resistance and habits against 'new ways' are forced to learn internet shopping and delivery. Their habits can change permanently.