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Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

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Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Businesses were never expected to be able to totally shut down for months at a time. It’s not reasonable to suggest that businesses who can’t handle that have been irresponsible or are less deserving of help.

Well Reddit would certainly disagree with you on that. But I agree with you. I don’t even know why we call them “bail outs” in this case. “Crisis operating grants” would be more accurate.

Or just "compensation".

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#62
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're asking me,(general tax payer) to give you money to ride out the storm, but you get all the private gains in the future while I take the risk now. There is a much more fair way to do this. Firms simply issue new stock and sell it to the market. Firms get the capital they need, the general tax payer isn't holding the bag.

I find it interesting that this entire thread seems to be about fairness. Whether something is fair to corporations/people really shouldn't be the point. It should be about keeping people alive and having a functioning/prosperous economy. I'd much rather have that than a "fair" economy.

The question is who is making sacrifices, and who will be prospering, and who will be dying.

A 2.2 trillion dollar check was just signed with the american tax payer's name on it. That is money could have gone to retirements, heath-care, and schools. It is reasonable to be concerned that it go to an equal or better purpose, and not to buy a second yachts for bankers.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#63
post #48
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes, basic consumer goods didn’t see much inflation. But what about housing, education, even stuff like cars and travel. Of course, other factors are at play too, but abundant “cheap” money certainly increase prices of those

The fact that the most common inflation numbers (AFAIK) don't include real estate makes them worthless.

Shelter (rent and "owners' equivalent of rent") are included in the CPI.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#64
post #15
post #6

In The Netherlands, our government reserved a special € 100 million for startups, because they are not eligible for the normal relief program because these startups have no revenue and "their succes is measured differently". In the grand scheme of things, € 100 million is peanuts of course. Still I found it baffling. I should also mention these are loans, but if the startups fail the government is still holding the b…

There is no default in the Netherlands, so the entrepreneur is always holding the bag.

They do have limited liability companies, why would the owners be liable for loans to the company if the company goes bankrupt?

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Businesses were never expected to be able to totally shut down for months at a time. It’s not reasonable to suggest that businesses who can’t handle that have been irresponsible or are less deserving of help.

Wimbledon took out a pandemic policy year after year. Turns out they were stupid to do so, they could have invested the insurance premium in the stock market and waited for their bailout.

Wimbledon is a one time (well annual...) event. I doubt anyone would insure a company making billions in revenue against a pandemic -- an inevitable outcome in a lot of ways.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#66
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not reasonable, and also not useful. That's probably 90% or 95% of businesses that were not able to pause like that. We're going to want a lot of those businesses. And the ones that are able, some are by luck or circumstance rather than wise design. Should we reward the luck as well as the design? "Don't help them" seems like throwing out ten babies with the bathwater.

I mean, that logic is applied to individuals that for example get sick or simple exist in bad economy. They dont get bailout while consequences on them are disastrous. I think that anger over companies being bailed out with no conditions placed on those money is pretty much about that. Individual get homeless, but the company wont even have to go through bankruptcy and restructuralization. It gets free money instead.

This is a totally different situation. Businesses are failing because of the government. Therefore the government should compensate them.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#67
> “Colonel Cargill was so awful a marketing executive that his services were much sought after by firms eager to establish losses for tax purposes. His prices were high, for failure often did not come easily. He had to start at the top and work his way down, and with sympathetic friends in Washington, losing money was no simple matter. It took months of hard work and careful misplanning. A person misplaced, disorganized, miscalculated, overlooked everything and open every loophole, and just when he thought he had it made, the government gave him a lake or a forest or an oilfield and spoiled everything. Even with such handicaps, Colonel Cargill could be relied on to run the most prosperous enterprise into the ground. He was a self-made man who owed his lack of success to nobody.”

Catch-22

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#68
post #16

Well, not really: bailouts punish people and business who incurred costs to operate in a way that would allow them to pause their economic activity for months (cancellable supply/rent/employment contracts, cash reserves, etc.), and favors those who did not do so. In general, a society where it is possible to pause all economic activity at any time is going to be much more robust than one that doesn't, and is going to…

Storage requires economic activity though. Storing frozen food requires an economy to generate electricity and maintain power lines. Storing dry goods requires electricity to process those goods into something useful or a fossil fuel supply chain or a wood cutting insustry.

Also, food production requires year round economic activity. Pausing for one week would mean mass starvation even if everyone had food stores.

People keep talking about disrupted supply chains but nothing could be further from the truth. Food is widely available as are all needed consumer goods. In my city, restaurant supply companies have shifted to producing direct to consumer boxes in a matter of days. I love to garden and am attempting to grow a lot of my own food because I'm a bit of a prepped, but even I can see that we are not anywhere close to a true SHTF moment. For the most part the economy is operating as normal for necessary goods. Most people can still go to the same store they always do and get everything needed or go o line and have it delivered.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#69
post #13

The statement about the lack of inflation from QE and other stimulus programs from 2008 is pretty questionable. There's been little inflation as measured using usual consumer price indices, but the construction of those indices is typically fairly focused on consumer goods and underweights the assets that rich people tend to invest in (stocks, real estate, bonds, etc). The QE and stimulus programs from 2008 were sign…

If we look at inflation for consumer goods (not oil, healthcare, housing etc.) there may be another, non-fiscal policy aspect coming into play shortly.

Formerly Chinese (and sometimes subsidized I suspect) dirt cheap items might become a lot more expensive. Non stick frying pans and pool swim noodles type things. I can't believe that returns exactly to how it has been.

Re: Seen everywhere in last U.S. crisis, moral hazard is nowhere in this one

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A virus is no more the governments fault than an asteroid. The shutdown is consequence of the disaster, not a cause. Economic activity would decline substantially regardless of government action.

The shutdown is the government’s fault, period. The damage it is causing is far worse than what would have happened if the government had started taking action in January and ramped up testing capacity. Instead the government did close to nothing and now the lockdowns are the last resort. Other countries handled this better. South Korea and Taiwan are good examples of countries that ramped up testing and did not need…

Disagree. There’s no guarantee earlier government action would have eliminated the need to shut down businesses or ban gatherings. I do think more should be done to support workers. $1200 single payments are not even peanuts.
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