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A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

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Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#291

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

CydeWeys wrote: post #258
School-Cotton wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Were virtually all businesses shut down for weeks or months during the 1918 flu pandemic? All I can find is reports of localized shutdowns in certain cities. If not, I don't think you can say it's comparable.

Yes, there were very large, long shutdowns during the 1918 flu pandemic. And they had more of an effect than what we're doing now, because people couldn't work remotely.

Do you have a source for that? I've seen charts purporting to show that, but digging in always revealed that they showed "social distancing measures" more broadly, limited to things like public gatherings bans and restaurant closures. I haven't seen any record of general business shutdowns or bans on private gatherings in 1918.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#292

Post by thoughtstheseus »

lkrubner wrote: post #252
throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

" it will be spread to an even smaller group of people " I'll point out, the Democrats are fighting hard to ensure that the rescue money is spread to a very broad section of the public. With enough public pressure, Congress can be pushed to ensure that there is more rescue money made available, and also that the money should be distributed to the broadest possible spectrum of the public. We can look at the mistakes m…

The fed has stepped into the repo market, commercial paper, money market, primary corporate bond, secondary corporate bond, consumer ABS, they're backing payroll lending through banks, direct lending to sub 10,000 employee companies through banks, municipal debt, treasury market, MBS market, expanded swap lines and foreign bank repos to provide dollars internationally all to ensure financial markets function. They're busy.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#293

Post by david_w »

dang wrote: post #289
david_w wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK let me get this straight, just so I understand. It's flamebait to recite the material and relevant facts about the Chinese Communist Party / dictatorship including the fact that they murdered the doctors who were trying to warn them and investigate it, after which this same dicatorship lied to the world about the spread of the disease and permitted tens of thousands of people to leave Wuhan provence, carrying what…

You're assuming that reciting facts can't be flamebait. Actually it easily can. Your reply here is even more in the flamewar style. These comments are clearly fighting a political/national battle, and you can't do that and have curious conversation at the same time. Those are two different states of the nervous system. We want curious conversation here. In case it feels like I'm saying this because I secretly support…

I find I just can't relate to what you're saying although I can tell you're perfectly sincere and what you say makes sense insofar as its coherent and on topic. I get your point, I just disagree. What you're citing as selective fact presentation is called presenting a coherent point of view, buttressed by facts. If the facts hurt, then that's information to the injured party and information they need to have.

To give an analogy, our court system is adverserial and most debating societies follow the similar rules. The reason for this is because the best arguments are just that- arguments. In a debating society both sides present their cases as strongly as they can and the audience (here readers) decide. Asking someone not to form accurate, relevant, and decisive facts into an argument because the facts themselves will inflame people is, let's just say very Europeanish. It's akin to bannning so called "hate speech", which is nothing but speech that pisses off the people it exposes in some way.

I can't support a platform that has hatespeech moderation built into it.

What is going on is that people who do do what you're saying I am doing, attacking with selectively edited facts which distort reality, are ruining your platform. They suck up mindwidth and attention and litter the place with n-nested, tit-for-tat, lastwordistic threads. They ruin the joint. Then it's not an engaging place to be anymore and the Good People leave. Just so you know I know what you're talking about.

It's your place, not mine and you can do as you see fit. I can't participate as a commenter, that's all. There's just zero chance I'll change my approach, so it's better that I just refrain, which I am happy to do.

Reddit got it right btw, and then it went full totalitarian and those two things aren't unrelated. When you let people develop their ideas fully, using all the means their intelligence and imaginations can muster, then complex issues become clear. When that clarity doesn't favor your preferred narrative, as it didn't favor the narratives of the handful of Reddit mods who run that place, then you're put in the position of hosting your own ideological destruction. Not many Sam Adamses are ever birthed in the first place and certainly not enough to keep Reddit stocked with moderators, so, of course, they shut dissenting subreddits down faster than a kissing booth at the Wuhan county fair.

I voluntarily retire my commenting privileges.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#294

Post by bo1024 »

fg6hr wrote: post #287
empath75 wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand the theory for why injecting money into the economy is supposed to work. They’ve forcibly shut it down. The point of injecting money is to stimulate the production of goods and services. If you can’t make goods and services all it’s going to do is generate a lot of inflation.

Here's another observation from an armchair economist. Money flow upwards by forces of debt and contracts. If we short circuit the very top with the very bottom, money will start flowing inside this loop. If we don't form this loop, the powerful vacuum cleaner at the top will break this mechanism. In other words, the amount of money in the system doesn't matter much. What matters is that money form a steady flow patt…

This sounds reasonable. Right now people need money mostly for rent and mortgages. So the solution is to pay people money so they can afford rent, I.e. loop money right back up to the banks and capital holders.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#295

Post by refurb »

3xblah wrote: post #247
throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

Whatever the truth may be it is certainly interesting how 20 million people can lose their jobs simply as a result of their employer reducing or stopping its operations for a few weeks. Regardless of the previous unemployement figures it raises the question of how secure were these "jobs". Is job security worth measuring.

Why is it surprising?

The government literally said “stop what you’re doing” to 80% of the businesses out there.

I’m honestly surprised it’s only 20M people unemployed.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#296

Post by jshevek »

dcolkitt wrote: post #227
icedchai wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even after quarantine is over, it will be a slow ramp for many sectors. Small (hopefully very small) outbreaks will continue to occur, so people will be afraid. Restaurants will be less than a third full. Nobody will want to go to the movies. Crowds will be avoided.

I doubt people alter their behavior for long. Certainly not more than 6 months after the crest is over. The 1957 flu pandemic killed 100,000 Americans, which adjusted for population is where current models estimate Covid will land. And it had virtually zero lasting impact on culture of behavior.

I think you are most likely correct, but to argue devil's advocate there has been a significant change the way our society collectively discusses and reasons about these events, and a change in our views of acceptable losses.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#297

Post by EpicEng »

3xblah wrote: post #247
throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

Whatever the truth may be it is certainly interesting how 20 million people can lose their jobs simply as a result of their employer reducing or stopping its operations for a few weeks. Regardless of the previous unemployement figures it raises the question of how secure were these "jobs". Is job security worth measuring.

It's "surprising" that people lose jobs when businesses stop functioning? I can't think of any interpretation of that sentence which makes any sense at all.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#298

Post by Jommi »

cjamesd wrote: post #283
gniv wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For certain jobs it's better to fire the workers so they can get unemployment benefits, rather than keep them without pay.

Fascinating. Do you suppose there are businesses that actually could keep their employees but are just throwing in the towel because their human capital will be easy to obtain after people can go back to work?

Oh definitely, and especially now with the unemployment benefits cap being nearly 4kUSD/month the decision is even easier.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#299

Post by perl4ever »

harimau777 wrote: post #189
alistairSH wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was done through cooking the unemployment books ... That's patently false. BLS reports 6 different "unemployment rates" (1). The media has historically reported U-3. You can argue that U-6 is more meaningful in light of recent economic trends. But, no books have been cooked. 1 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

For sake of argument: If U-3 is the one that everyone pays attention to does it really matter that much if the others exist?

I think this sort of discussion also happens with the CPI. There are a whole bunch of CPI indexes, with energy, without energy, etc. And then people make a big deal about the shortcomings of one of them that they chose to focus on. If you say, well, the CPI that includes everything, includes everything, then the response can easily be what you are saying about U-3.

I tend not to blame authorities for ignorance, because it seems to me ignorance is not passive; it evolves to extreme levels of resistance.

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