261–270 of 322 posts
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For sake of argument: If U-3 is the one that everyone pays attention to does it really matter that much if the others exist?
To respond to your argument - it may not matter that the others exist, but allegations that the books have been cooked are unfounded. The books are there, plain as day, and there are no shenanigans with them.
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I appreciate your perspective, but regarding things not being that bad, it depends on your vantage point. I have a few friends with established restaurants in town. As you can imagine, this is pretty dire for them. They're looking at losing everything they've built up slowly over a matter of years being completely destroyed in the matter of a few months--with ripple effects to dozens of employees that are essentially…
It sucks for your friends yes, but to be honest most restaurants fail and the only thing notable about the present situation is many of them are failing all at once. It’s not like a restaurant failing and putting entire families out of business is some surprising event. I’m sure it happens everyday. You have to look at the other side, when your friends restaurants fail and move out, new ones will move in with the sam…
If you're in the fortunate position to have some capital during this crisis, this is an ideal time to start a soft-tech or low cost R&D intensive startup that can be seeded remotely. Competition will be largely wiped out relative to supply of dollars and plenty of market share will be there for the taking when the world opens back up for business. I imagine there will be a disproportionate number of big winners that…
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> most restaurants fail I don't have the numbers but this doesn't seem to match my anecdotal experience. Yes, restaurants do fail but I really don't think "most" of the ones I have seen in various neighborhoods I lived in failed. I haven't lived in Seattle for 4 years or Tucson for 7, but when I go back to those places, most of the restaurants I remember frequenting are still around.
Survivor bias. New restaurants open and close within a few months all the time. You aren't looking for them now because they weren't there long to begin with.
* No surplus sufficient to ride out a crisis
* No safety net
* Barely functioning public health system
* No preparation for a major disease outbreak
* Etc.
It's the same economy today, but slightly different operating mode, like a car with the same engine but in a different gear. I'm certainly hoping for a new normal.
IMO things aren’t that bad. Yes restaurants and some small businesses are suffering, but look, people are cooking at home more, spending time with family, being healthier. People don’t need cosmetics or new clothes or cars or gasoline, and some luxury flashy items take a hit because there’s no way to really flaunt your wealth inside your own home. People aren’t traveling as much, tourist hotspots that were getting tr…
I am mostly introverted, have some hermit like tendencies, and can't wait for this to all be over. I can't imagine how terrible the more extroverted, social folks feel. The mental toll of this is going to be enormous for many of us.
It's a dystopian nightmare... or at least the beginning of one. People are afraid to leave their homes. When you do leave your house, you can't go and relax anywhere anyway. Nothing's open obviously. Even a simple walk around town is depressing as hell. All the closed shops and restaurants, people in masks looking scared, worries if you're walking to close to someone... both for them, and for you.
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Exactly. This is the furthest thing from a black swan. A global pandemic was always a matter of when, not if (still is). That, by definition, is not a black swan. Plus, we in EU/NA had plenty of notice since January to prepare, and we chose to bury our head in the sand instead. Prominent people call this a black swan just to deflect responsibility, and perhaps to get a bit of bailout money on the side.
Indeed. A black swan is something you never thought could exist before because you've only seen white swans. We've had pandemics in the past, though not as serious as this one. This is not a black swan, and calling it a black swan just undermines what a black swan is.
There have been much more serious pandemics in the past, way too many to even list here. I'll briefly mention two because we know them well in the western canon -- the 1918 flu epidemic and the black death.
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There's lies, damned lies, and statistics. Presenting merely data or information is insufficient. The responsibility is to present useful, contextualized information to the public - knowledge.
I'd like my government census/statistics agencies to present the raw data, instead of editorializing it. There's plenty of pundits and elected officials who are quite happy to provide the latter service.
Government provides a nice website (BLS) with explanations and empowers its citizens to analyze it, and the government is still doing something wrong.
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Exactly. This is the furthest thing from a black swan. A global pandemic was always a matter of when, not if (still is). That, by definition, is not a black swan. Plus, we in EU/NA had plenty of notice since January to prepare, and we chose to bury our head in the sand instead. Prominent people call this a black swan just to deflect responsibility, and perhaps to get a bit of bailout money on the side.
Indeed. A black swan is something you never thought could exist before because you've only seen white swans. We've had pandemics in the past, though not as serious as this one. This is not a black swan, and calling it a black swan just undermines what a black swan is.
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But ArialMinaei there's not that much more they could have done. It still would have had 20x the mortality rate of the usual flu strain and it still would have had an RO of 3 or 4. Once something that fits those parameters is loosed on the world, the rest is a fait accompli- we're going into social distancing, lockdown, whatever it's being called. Yes respirators and masks, I know, but the previous administration had…
c.f. South Korea. c.f. Germany c.f. Canada even ... c.f. California. These are all jurisdictions that took early, effective, widespread action that have resulted in dramatically lower rates of cases and deaths.