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A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

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Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#241

Post by lostapathy »

School-Cotton wrote: post #126
xwdv wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sucks for your friends yes, but to be honest most restaurants fail and the only thing notable about the present situation is many of them are failing all at once. It’s not like a restaurant failing and putting entire families out of business is some surprising event. I’m sure it happens everyday. You have to look at the other side, when your friends restaurants fail and move out, new ones will move in with the sam…

> most restaurants fail I don't have the numbers but this doesn't seem to match my anecdotal experience. Yes, restaurants do fail but I really don't think "most" of the ones I have seen in various neighborhoods I lived in failed. I haven't lived in Seattle for 4 years or Tucson for 7, but when I go back to those places, most of the restaurants I remember frequenting are still around.

Survivor bias. New restaurants open and close within a few months all the time. You aren't looking for them now because they weren't there long to begin with.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#242

Post by listenallyall »

24gttghh wrote: post #182
adammichaelc wrote: post #154

How can they say nobody knew? 170+ CEO’s of major corporations resigned right before the outbreak. Something is fishy with the current narrative.

Not that I find that comment totally unbelievable, but citation please?

He is correct. "October’s 172 departures is the most in any month in the last 15 years." (that's Oct 2019, article from Nov)

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/why-have-more...

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#243

Post by dboreham »

hilbertseries wrote: post #157
Jagat wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spanish flu was very closely intertwined with the war, because of which people were kept in the dark almost everywhere. Lack of reporting translates to lack of awareness of the pandemic which translates to people working and shopping fearlessly. The difference now is that people know there's a pandemic, and many would be averse to go out working, or shopping even though the scale is much lower than that of Spanish fl…

During the Spanish flu pandemic, entire cities and towns would get sick and everything would stop. There were also shelter in place orders given during this time. 1918 wasn’t the dark ages, we had telephones and radios. People knew what was happening.

Downtown Abbey didn't get either a radio nor telephone until after the war. They had telegram.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#244

Post by nitwit005 »

oblio wrote: post #230
nitwit005 wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When it comes to actually building a product there is definitely face to face benefits. However, I'd point out that many software companies have far more sales people than engineers. There has been this expectation that salespeople should fly out, and have meetings, meals, and expensive drinks with the companies they sell to. Now magically that's all vanished, but sales are still happening. The cost of some sales eff…

The problem with your comment is that you're forgetting all sales are remote now. Once the lockdown is over, I wouldn't bet on the company that keeps doing remote sales versus the company doing normal face to face sales.

I'm not forgetting. That's my point. The sales are remote, and thus cheaper. No plane flights, no crazy expensive wine at dinner with customer.

And sure, they'll revert back, losing the efficiency gains once the government stops accidentally intervening in sales practices.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#245

Post by lkrubner »

snovv_crash wrote: post #240
PKop wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>don't realize how much $6T is This would be more relevant is we tallied how much actual credit "money" is getting into the hands of average people. Divide 6 trillion per every person and if that was the extent of the calculation and legislation, we'd be better off. But it's not, the same financial beneficiaries in good times are the ones getting the bailout money in bad times. >being injected into the economy Except…

Of course, if it was actually distributed to people who needed it to spend, it would cause massive inflation. This way most of the money never gets spent, and demand never goes up. Not that it's a good thing, just saying.

it would cause massive inflation

You seem to be saying that excess money would lead to demand-driven inflation. That is clearly impossible at a time when 16 million people lost their jobs in 3 weeks, and the downturn is global, so there is no growth area, somewhere else in the world, to use up resources.

One could make an argument that the withdrawal of labor from the market (last month, this month, and for several months) is a supply-side shock (slightly similar to the OPEC oil crisis in 1973) and therefore can generate some inflation via the supply-side losses. But that kind of supply-side shock is likely to be highly transient, considering how much labor is eager to get back to work, as soon as they are allowed to do so.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#246

Post by metacritic12 »

throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

> ... it will be spread to an even smaller group of people...

Last time, the package was given to mostly big banks and GM. This time most qualified Americans are getting a check and small businesses are getting sizable support as well. In what way is the base of support smaller than in 2008?

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#247

Post by 3xblah »

throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

Whatever the truth may be it is certainly interesting how 20 million people can lose their jobs simply as a result of their employer reducing or stopping its operations for a few weeks. Regardless of the previous unemployement figures it raises the question of how secure were these "jobs". Is job security worth measuring.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#248

Post by Aeolun »

throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

Roughly ~20,000 per US citizen. It’s almost their yearly income for some.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#249

Post by jameslevy »

tathougies wrote: post #229
twelve40 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…

Yes, the Spanish flu led to one of the biggest economic booms in history: the roaring 20s

Correlation doesn't imply causation. This was around the onset of mass production, electrification, and the first time that cheap credit was a thing.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#250

Post by amelius »

> The first is that it overlooks the negative impacts on consumer sentiment and spending, which are likely to persist for many months, if not years.

I sense a kind of broken-window fallacy here. If consumers want to spend less on things they don't essentially need, then why is that a problem? Isn't that a net-win for everybody (since what people don't want doesn't need to be produced) and the planet (for obvious reasons)?

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