231–240 of 322 posts
My stupid country just went back to pre-2008 levels, and now this. My entire adult life is basically one long period of stagnation.
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Even after quarantine is over, it will be a slow ramp for many sectors. Small (hopefully very small) outbreaks will continue to occur, so people will be afraid. Restaurants will be less than a third full. Nobody will want to go to the movies. Crowds will be avoided.
I doubt people alter their behavior for long. Certainly not more than 6 months after the crest is over. The 1957 flu pandemic killed 100,000 Americans, which adjusted for population is where current models estimate Covid will land. And it had virtually zero lasting impact on culture of behavior.
I’ve been spending $5+/day at starbucks every single day for the last 15 years. I’d often go morning and afternoon. Lately I’ve had to make my coffee at home. The first week or so sucked. The baristas did a much better job. But I had to make it work so I’d tweak things here and there until I got it right. Now I can pretty much make the same drink I was buying. It’s much faster and much cheaper. I don’t see myself going back to starbucks nearly as frequently as I used to when this is over.
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This was done through cooking the unemployment books ... That's patently false. BLS reports 6 different "unemployment rates" (1). The media has historically reported U-3. You can argue that U-6 is more meaningful in light of recent economic trends. But, no books have been cooked. 1 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
For sake of argument: If U-3 is the one that everyone pays attention to does it really matter that much if the others exist?
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Of course the data exists. See eg. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LREM25TTUSM156S The issue people are talking about unemployment rate and not the joblessness rate is that people care about ability to get a job if you want one. The joblessness rate includes people who are looking for job but can’t get any, but also people who are supported by their spouses, retirees, and people living on government benefits who a…
Sure I agree that the typically reported unemployment measure is best for measuring how easily people who want jobs can obtain them. However, so often this is touted not only as an indicator of the overall economy, but even the well-being of society. The categories of people you mention that shouldn't be counted... all of those people live in and have an effect on society. If we're worried about the economy, it seems…
Those people are counted. I'm not sure why you're flaming someone attempting to educate you about how they are counted. Hint: it takes more than one number, and, the government publishes more than one number.
If you want to be part of the solution and are looking for a startup idea, I have tried repeatedly over the years to suggest that we can try to develop gig work platforms that are actually a good deal for the worker. I work for such a platform and I've written about that (again) here:
https://writepay.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-textbroker-solutio...
Discussed on HN and some of the comments there are important: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22734447
Edit: And if you do create a gig work platform based roughly on the Textbroker model, you are invited to post the announcement to r/GigWorks. I'm the mod there.
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To respond to your argument - it may not matter that the others exist, but allegations that the books have been cooked are unfounded. The books are there, plain as day, and there are no shenanigans with them.
There's lies, damned lies, and statistics. Presenting merely data or information is insufficient. The responsibility is to present useful, contextualized information to the public - knowledge.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I doubt people alter their behavior for long. Certainly not more than 6 months after the crest is over. The 1957 flu pandemic killed 100,000 Americans, which adjusted for population is where current models estimate Covid will land. And it had virtually zero lasting impact on culture of behavior.
Were people in 1957 forced to alter their behavior so significantly? I’ve been spending $5+/day at starbucks every single day for the last 15 years. I’d often go morning and afternoon. Lately I’ve had to make my coffee at home. The first week or so sucked. The baristas did a much better job. But I had to make it work so I’d tweak things here and there until I got it right. Now I can pretty much make the same drink I…
Maybe I only do Starbucks 2x a week when things go back to normal. In general, I'm eating less crap, exercising more, lost about 8 pounds so far. I'm physically healthier than a month ago. Mentally, that's a different story...
It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…
>don't realize how much $6T is This would be more relevant is we tallied how much actual credit "money" is getting into the hands of average people. Divide 6 trillion per every person and if that was the extent of the calculation and legislation, we'd be better off. But it's not, the same financial beneficiaries in good times are the ones getting the bailout money in bad times. >being injected into the economy Except…
Not that it's a good thing, just saying.