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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a few clips of ST:Discovery and nearly had an apoplexy. When the ship spins (rolls) on its longitudinal axis and disappears (using the "spore drive"...) I pretty much lost my mind for a moment. Then it reappears with a flash that illuminates the nebula in the background . There are no clouds in space. Nebulas are big, really big. It would be light-years away. But the ship's photo-backwash lights it up like a fl…

The spore drive is a correctly-formatted and notarized petition to Juffo-Wup. The flash does not originate at Discovery and propagate outward as light, but begins before the ship appears, from a diffuse source, constructively interferes at Discovery's normal-spacetime discontinuity, and generates a holographic illusion between the observer and the nebula that just appears to be a flashbulb reflection. Every Star Trek…

> Discovery and Picard are very much darker than pure Roddenberry, in that they portray The Federation as something far short of a perfectly ethical Utopia.

Every Star Trek series does that. TOS and TNG tend to portray the focal crew as perfectly ethical taken together (though not always individually), but often as being in antagonistic relationship with their superiors in Starfleet and/or the civilian leadership of the Federation for precisely that reason.

It's true that many of those struggles reflect bureaucratic indifference, incompetence, and narrow-mindedness more than active malevolence (excluding when it is due to outside influence/infiltration), but that's pretty much true of Picard (the series) as well.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In my opinion, this is a decision that allows for a far wider range of character development. This may be the core disagreement, I (and I'm guessing GP) don't like this decision. Star Trek was an unique word in sci-fi (at least on-screen sci-fi) because of that bright idealism, that utopia. "An imperfect Starfleet can employ a monstrous starship captain that murders to keep its secrets"[0], and done regularly, this…

Bingo! Take away Roddenberry's vision of a better future and you've got Babylon 5, eh? Like I mentioned in a sib comment, it turns out that this was a tension going right back to the original series. It's hard to write! (You like the Klingons? To me they seemed derivative of (LotR) Orcs but I haven't spent time to really know.) > I miss that, because (with the possible exception of the Orville) there's nothing like t…

> Take away Roddenberry's vision of a better future and you've got Babylon 5, eh?

There's a hell of a take! Whatever Roddenberry's virtues, I don't recall him ever having the gumption to write a story in which the heroes go to war against the gods because the gods aren't doing it right.

(It's a very Klingon thing to do, though, unless Worf was joking about that.)

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case.

>What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case How about 10 to 50 million ? I live in Nigeria. Between December and late February, many people in Nigeria and Ghana report experiencing symptoms similar to those that could be caused moderate COVID-19 infection. These included, fever, diarhoea, cough, sore throat, malaise. Many physicians and scientists I kn…

If you are part of a cluster of a viral infection and you suspect Covid, then look for Anosmia as a symptom.

Anosmia is reported in 30%+ of Covid cases. Flu/cold viruses can cause Anosmia but it obviously isn’t common since you don’t hear about it and it isn’t given in lists expected symptoms.

Within a sample of 10 people that have Covid, you have an expected number of people that would have Anosmia.

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/push-to-include-an...

Beware of false information https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/lost-your... because AFAIK the journalist has incorrect thinking: “flus and colds are a common cause of Anosmia” DOESN’T mean that “Anosmia is a common symptom” (the abstract they reference is poorly written, still poor journalism IMHO).

I would appreciate any references to data showing how uncommon Anosmia is in cold/flu patients (I did look, but didn’t look hard).

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So...you're upset to see space opera played straight in your space opera? No, I like space opera too. I'm upset that ST has become Buffy the Vampire Slayer in Space. (Don't get the wrong idea, I like Buffy too.) > Have you forgotten entirely about S1 of TNG, or just chosen to ignore it? You'll have to clue me in to what specifically you're referring to, I re-watched it last year but I don't want to guess at what yo…

I mean, don't get me wrong, what you describe as the good in Trek is something I also appreciate. The trouble is that, TOS aside, I don't see it where you do. The reason I called out TNG S1 earlier was because it lacked absolutely nothing in terms of space-opera absurdity by comparison with Discovery, and so it's odd to me that you should abhor the one and disregard the other. But I'd also mention it in this connecti…

> The reason I called out TNG S1 earlier was because it lacked absolutely nothing in terms of space-opera absurdity by comparison with Discovery, and so it's odd to me that you should abhor the one and disregard the other.

Oh there is a lot of silliness in TNG (Data can't get the hang of contractions!?) but, and this is entirely subjective, to me it seemed in line with the rules or framework that TOS established. What I mean is, other than the holodeck, most of the technology was the same. Of course, the TOS tech is "magical" already: there are no teleporters, warp drives, etc., and we can't diagnose disease by waving rotating salt shakers over people. But somehow the rolling effect preceding "spore drive" offended me in a way that "going to warp" doesn't.

When I say "offended" I don't mean "oh my opinion is different". I mean that scene broke me. I was gibbering in the corner.

Ah, here's the exact clip that triggered a kernel panic in my brain: 'Discovery Spore Jumps to the Second Red Signal | Star Trek Discovery "New Eden"' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-3WKobwcxQ

Oh God. I forgot about the rotating dongle on the ship...

Anyway, it starts off bad, hard to take, and then just keeps getting worse and worse, and the the jump... https://youtu.be/7-3WKobwcxQ?t=232

Whaaaaaat?

It's like watching "Team America" but with real people playing the parts of the puppets, in space, with goofy special effects and way too much production value.

(But it's not space. Just as the ship arrives the background is illuminated as if there is atmosphere (it's not the background nebulas like I thought, just open space. Whew! That's something.))

Sorry, sorry...

(Like I said, maybe I'm just too old...)

> But I'd also mention it in this connection because the Roddenberry-driven performances of its characters don't read as "members of a healthy family", as you describe, but rather mostly as just flat and lifeless in affect. The interpersonal stuff just reads off, like a stage play put on by disinterested actors not directed very well. As we see later in the same series, that's certainly not the fault of any lack on the part of the main cast, whose relationships become more believable, rather than less, as the show goes on. The major change is the one you cite: Roddenberry no longer exercising creative control. I think it's reasonable to consider that that change lay behind the improvement of character and relationship portrayals that I describe - especially considering that, as you also note, many of the people who made the show have said exactly the same.

Granted, but they (the characters) don't really get into interpersonal conflicts, eh? Consider Lt. Barclay and how he is treated as his character develops. Off the top of my head, that's about as close as you get to drama. Or when Riker meets his duplicate, or his father. There is some drama. (I'm reminded that Spock and his father are also at odds in TOS.)

So I seem to have convinced myself that you're right: already in TNG the cracks in the utopian "healthy family" milieu are showing.

It's not that I don't enjoy TNG, or DS9 or the others, despite the drift from utopia. FWIW, it's the utopia I miss.

In re: The Wounded Sky I'll pick one up. Thanks for the advice!

> With regard to your comments on the supposed superficiality of Discovery, I feel it necessary to note that this is a judgment you've formed, and which you apparently hold quite firmly, on the basis of about four minutes of what I gather to be trailers and promos, and not on the basis of any true engagement, however adversarial, with the show itself.

You're right. Some trailers, a few minutes of the beginning of s1e1, and the clip I linked above. I wouldn't call it a judgment, more like a visceral reaction. But as you read above, it's pretty firm and consistent.

> I find it difficult to understand how any judgment so formed could be anything other than superficial in its own right

Oh it is, I didn't dig too deep, although it does come from my core. Part of it is that I take sci-fi way too seriously. I identify as a sci-fi fan.

But you're right! Without "a more sustained investigation" I can, at best, only be projecting my own BS onto it, eh? And like I said, it's obvious that a lot of work and talent went into it. It's kind of crass to dismiss it like I've been doing. I'll try to watch that clip again and get over myself. Cheers!

> And, sure, I wouldn't let my kids watch Game of Thrones, either, if I had any. But that doesn't make it a bad show. To be sure, there's a vast sufficiency of traits which do make it a bad show! But it being inappropriate for children is not among them.

Ha! Well met.

G.R.R.M. once said that he thought LotR would be better if Gandalf didn't come back, but I think he was just trolling. ;-)

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#465
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks like you need to find someone who can help make your post feel more professional - perhaps Ask HN for help or just directly email one of the clued up people here that are open to cold emails (patio11?). I almost didn’t read it because the title sounds too generically woowoo, and the domain you are using seemed unprofessional. Then on reading the article, you didn’t give your background, an irrelevant picture…

The site is my personal blog. I thought about writing a more technical level paper, but what I wanted to accomplish is to get this idea in front of a non-scientific audience who can think outside the box (like many of those on HN). A standard scientific paper will sink without a trace -scientists are just too conservative to take something like this seriously. I hate to say it, but the people who will make something…

I think that if you really believe your idea has some merit, you should still write a paper. After that you can blog about it for any audience out there and maybe write a follow-up. You're a professional, you know how it works.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#466
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This paper argues on the basis of symptoms that there might be a milder strain that has dominated some countries vs others https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v...

There may be other explanations such as past use of vaccines for other diseases, that varies country to country.

Yes. Or just variations in our immune systems. Immune systems are incredibly complex systems. It is difficult to overstate just how complex and varied they are. And they differ between individuals to an amazing extent.

If immunity is important to symptom severity, it may manifest as some weird correlation you might find in a cross-sectional study. Maybe gluten intolerance or a history of acid reflux will be a marker that lets you know what your risk of severe disease are.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know what the commonly guessed incorrect solution to that card problem supposed to be?

8 and red. Most people don't invert the logic and realize that there is no claim that an odd number can't have a red back. I think confirmation bias accounts for missing the brown.

Do you mean 8 and brown?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bingo! Take away Roddenberry's vision of a better future and you've got Babylon 5, eh? Like I mentioned in a sib comment, it turns out that this was a tension going right back to the original series. It's hard to write! (You like the Klingons? To me they seemed derivative of (LotR) Orcs but I haven't spent time to really know.) > I miss that, because (with the possible exception of the Orville) there's nothing like t…

> Take away Roddenberry's vision of a better future and you've got Babylon 5, eh? There's a hell of a take! Whatever Roddenberry's virtues, I don't recall him ever having the gumption to write a story in which the heroes go to war against the gods because the gods aren't doing it right . (It's a very Klingon thing to do, though, unless Worf was joking about that.)

Yeah, sorry, I went for name recognition rather than accuracy or precision. You make very good points.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#469

I posted and deleted a few comments. I don't know what to make of this and it's getting controversial. If it could be helpful, I'd love to improve it. I just don't know where it fits in ongoing discussions by prominent researchers on analysis of strains and types. Three things that jump out at me: a) You'll get more credibility from having a thorough lit review than from listing credentials. Linking to magazine artic…

Just woke up (I am in Australia). I expect some harsh comments as the idea is controversial. To your specific points.

a) The post was intended for a lay audience, not other scientists directly. The reason I didn’t write a scientific paper on this is it would sink without a trace as most scientists and doctors are too conservative. It is quite a radical idea and while scientifically sound, it will take mavericks outside of science to see this done. For better or worse it will take the efforts of someone like on of the tech billionaires to push this forward.

b) If I had to choose one aspect that gets most commonly confused by people who read the idea it would be the reason for searching only mild/asymptomatic cases. This is purely an efficiency issue. In an ideal world we would sequence the strains in all cases, look to see if we can find mutants with deletions, and then see what was the clinical outcome of those infected with that strain. If we find that all cases of a particular mutant are mild/asymptomatic then we would have our candidate.

Because we live in a constrained world where it is not possible to sequence all cases, where should we first look? Since we are looking for a mutant that only causes mild/asymptomatic cases we can exclude patients with serious symptoms as a first pass. Once we find a candidate strain that has the right sort of mutation we can then sequence all cases in the local area, both serious and mild to get the full clinical picture. This will make the search much more efficient.

c) I am recommending that we put b) into action and get on with specifically looking for an attenuated (only causes mild disease) strain ASAP. If we find one then we can discuss what to do next, but the first step is to get started.

The good news is this can be done quickly and relatively cheaply provide we have the will and the support of someone with the clout to make it happen. It won’t be easy, but it can be done.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#470
post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The site is my personal blog. I thought about writing a more technical level paper, but what I wanted to accomplish is to get this idea in front of a non-scientific audience who can think outside the box (like many of those on HN). A standard scientific paper will sink without a trace -scientists are just too conservative to take something like this seriously. I hate to say it, but the people who will make something…

I think that if you really believe your idea has some merit, you should still write a paper. After that you can blog about it for any audience out there and maybe write a follow-up. You're a professional, you know how it works.

I most likely will write such a paper, but the first thing is to get those that can make this happen interested. They are not going to be reading a scientific paper.
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