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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

tillett.info

451–460 of 585 posts

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re ignoring the fact that this virus Is an order of magnitude more lethal than the flu, and I would guess that most individuals in poorer countries skip the vaccine altogether.

It has only been proven lethal for very old and people with chronic illnesses. Those people should stay at home and practice distancing.

Sorry but are you an epidemiologist or virologist? The armchair advice you're giving very much belies what established experts in the field are saying. It also ignores all the cases of respiratory and cardiac complications in not just the elderly. Is "very old" equivalent to "older than 20" for you?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The spore drive is a correctly-formatted and notarized petition to Juffo-Wup. The flash does not originate at Discovery and propagate outward as light, but begins before the ship appears, from a diffuse source, constructively interferes at Discovery's normal-spacetime discontinuity, and generates a holographic illusion between the observer and the nebula that just appears to be a flashbulb reflection. Every Star Trek…

> In my opinion, this is a decision that allows for a far wider range of character development. This may be the core disagreement, I (and I'm guessing GP) don't like this decision. Star Trek was an unique word in sci-fi (at least on-screen sci-fi) because of that bright idealism, that utopia. "An imperfect Starfleet can employ a monstrous starship captain that murders to keep its secrets"[0], and done regularly, this…

ENT was pretty dark, too, you know. If we're not going to talk about "In the Pale Moonlight"'s argument that violating an ideal in a small way might be justifiable, if not respectable, to preserve it in the large, then can we talk about how Archer, in "Dear Doctor", refused to hand over the cure Phlox had developed for the Valakian plague, thus consigning an entire species to extinction, because the then-inchoate Prime Directive ideal meant more to him than saving the lives of millions of fellow sentients? Sure, the show portrays this as an uncomplicatedly virtuous choice, without the nuance that Michael Taylor brought to "In the Pale Moonlight". But I don't see why I need to take that portrayal at face value, when the supposed virtue in question is that of refusing to save millions of lives.

I think the core disagreement here may instead be that, where you see the Federation portrayed as a true utopia, I don't. I agree that in the B&B era it claims to be so, and that the claim is also often made on its behalf, but that's not the same thing at all. I think it's less interesting and less worthwhile to take those claims at face value, in spite of all the evidence to the contrary, than to take them as a stepping-off point for a discussion of how utopian ideals are no less susceptible to failure in practice than any other sort of absolutism, and how, while idealism is certainly not lacking in value, it cannot alone serve as the foundation for a mature sense of morality.

Granted that this is a difference of interpretation. But, then again, we're talking about how we choose to appreciate works of art. In that context, what isn't?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re ignoring the fact that this virus Is an order of magnitude more lethal than the flu, and I would guess that most individuals in poorer countries skip the vaccine altogether.

It has only been proven lethal for very old and people with chronic illnesses. Those people should stay at home and practice distancing.

Sorry, but that's just not true. This tweet links to data from UK ITUs.

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1246866119597621248

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The spore drive is a correctly-formatted and notarized petition to Juffo-Wup. The flash does not originate at Discovery and propagate outward as light, but begins before the ship appears, from a diffuse source, constructively interferes at Discovery's normal-spacetime discontinuity, and generates a holographic illusion between the observer and the nebula that just appears to be a flashbulb reflection. Every Star Trek…

> In my opinion, this is a decision that allows for a far wider range of character development. This may be the core disagreement, I (and I'm guessing GP) don't like this decision. Star Trek was an unique word in sci-fi (at least on-screen sci-fi) because of that bright idealism, that utopia. "An imperfect Starfleet can employ a monstrous starship captain that murders to keep its secrets"[0], and done regularly, this…

> Star Trek was an unique word in sci-fi (at least on-screen sci-fi) because of that bright idealism, that utopia.

What utopia? Outside of the crew of the Enterprise itself in TOS and TNG (most of the time, when not under malevolent outside influence, abd even then there are some exceptions), neither Starfleet, the Federation outside of Starfleet, nor the galaxy outside of the Federation (in roughly descending order of proximity to utopia) were portrayed as without flaws in any version of Trek.

> Star Trek, in its TNG to ENT era, was unique in terms of positivity and optimism.

Usually, this claim is made for the TOS to TNG era (or, more specifically, the era when Gene Roddenberry was directly involved). While, as noted above, it's flawed even then, it really doesn't work for DS9, VOY, or ENT.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re fairly hard to get in contact with directly. Would you mind sending me an email? I don’t think I’ll be a your “middle hop”, but I’ll try. My email is lyndsy@ .com My username here is my real name, and I should be easy to find. It’s also my username on Twitter, Keybase, and most other popular platforms.

From the update section of the original post: > If you think you might be that first hop person then please get in contact with me at daniel.tillett@gmail.com

Thank you. I don’t know if that just wasn’t there when I posted, or if I just missed it, but I appreciate it.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The spore drive is a correctly-formatted and notarized petition to Juffo-Wup. The flash does not originate at Discovery and propagate outward as light, but begins before the ship appears, from a diffuse source, constructively interferes at Discovery's normal-spacetime discontinuity, and generates a holographic illusion between the observer and the nebula that just appears to be a flashbulb reflection. Every Star Trek…

> In my opinion, this is a decision that allows for a far wider range of character development. This may be the core disagreement, I (and I'm guessing GP) don't like this decision. Star Trek was an unique word in sci-fi (at least on-screen sci-fi) because of that bright idealism, that utopia. "An imperfect Starfleet can employ a monstrous starship captain that murders to keep its secrets"[0], and done regularly, this…

Bingo! Take away Roddenberry's vision of a better future and you've got Babylon 5, eh? Like I mentioned in a sib comment, it turns out that this was a tension going right back to the original series. It's hard to write!

(You like the Klingons? To me they seemed derivative of (LotR) Orcs but I haven't spent time to really know.)

> I miss that, because (with the possible exception of the Orville) there's nothing like that anymore.

I've been thirsty as hell for some good (video) sci-fi for a while now and have been looking and (IMO) you're correct.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_science_fiction_films_...

(And don't get me started on the blurring of the "sci-fi" genre. Superhero movies are not sci-fi. Sharks attacking are not sci-fi even if they have lasers on their heads, or six heads, or swim through ice. Fast & Furious isn't sci-fi. Harry Potter isn't sci-fi. (WTF Sy-fy channel!?) Zombies aren't sci-fi. Nor vampires, nor bigfoot, nor giant animals. Godzilla isn't sci-fi. I'm just ranting... ignore me. Swords and magic: not sci-fi. ...okay I think I'm done...)

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So...you're upset to see space opera played straight in your space opera? Have you forgotten entirely about S1 of TNG, or just chosen to ignore it? DS9 is "not Roddenberry", too, what with its most universally acclaimed episode being about Sisko deliberately subverting his own principles and those of the Federation to suborn all manner of criminality, not excluding several murders, in order to deceive a neutral party…

> So...you're upset to see space opera played straight in your space opera? No, I like space opera too. I'm upset that ST has become Buffy the Vampire Slayer in Space. (Don't get the wrong idea, I like Buffy too.) > Have you forgotten entirely about S1 of TNG, or just chosen to ignore it? You'll have to clue me in to what specifically you're referring to, I re-watched it last year but I don't want to guess at what yo…

I mean, don't get me wrong, what you describe as the good in Trek is something I also appreciate. The trouble is that, TOS aside, I don't see it where you do.

The reason I called out TNG S1 earlier was because it lacked absolutely nothing in terms of space-opera absurdity by comparison with Discovery, and so it's odd to me that you should abhor the one and disregard the other. But I'd also mention it in this connection because the Roddenberry-driven performances of its characters don't read as "members of a healthy family", as you describe, but rather mostly as just flat and lifeless in affect. The interpersonal stuff just reads off, like a stage play put on by disinterested actors not directed very well. As we see later in the same series, that's certainly not the fault of any lack on the part of the main cast, whose relationships become more believable, rather than less, as the show goes on. The major change is the one you cite: Roddenberry no longer exercising creative control. I think it's reasonable to consider that that change lay behind the improvement of character and relationship portrayals that I describe - especially considering that, as you also note, many of the people who made the show have said exactly the same.

Consider, too, that while the idea for TOS was his and a lot of the development was as well, he did not exercise anything like the same degree of absolute authority over that show as he did over S1 of TNG. I agree with you that TOS's characters were lively and that their friendships were obviously close, deep, and warm, and I think it's interesting that they were so in an environment much more similar to TNG's later seasons than to its early ones.

(As a side note, if you haven't read Diane Duane's The Wounded Sky, from the Pocket Books TOS novel series, I can strongly recommend it. Of all the portrayals I've seen of the relationships among the TOS main characters, in and out of canon, this is the only one I find myself always coming back to specifically for the sake of that portrayal. I'm told that "Where No Man has Gone Before" from TNG S1 was meant to be an adaptation, but God alone knows how; they're nothing alike, especially in that that episode's characters are exceptionally flat even in comparison with the standard set by that season.)

With regard to your comments on the supposed superficiality of Discovery, I feel it necessary to note that this is a judgment you've formed, and which you apparently hold quite firmly, on the basis of about four minutes of what I gather to be trailers and promos, and not on the basis of any true engagement, however adversarial, with the show itself. I find it difficult to understand how any judgment so formed could be anything other than superficial in its own right, considering that you have by your own account barely scratched the surface. It may be worth considering whether a more sustained investigation is worth your while. If nothing else, it can only enable you to better substantiate your arguments for why the show is bad!

And, sure, I wouldn't let my kids watch Game of Thrones, either, if I had any. But that doesn't make it a bad show. To be sure, there's a vast sufficiency of traits which do make it a bad show! But it being inappropriate for children is not among them.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#458

I posted and deleted a few comments. I don't know what to make of this and it's getting controversial. If it could be helpful, I'd love to improve it. I just don't know where it fits in ongoing discussions by prominent researchers on analysis of strains and types. Three things that jump out at me: a) You'll get more credibility from having a thorough lit review than from listing credentials. Linking to magazine artic…

> b) You don't identify something harmless by just testing asymptomatics.

True, but I think you are missing part of Daniel's proposal. You don't "just" check for unique variations of the virus in asymptomatic carriers, you also check the sequence for major deletions: We would ideally be looking for a virus strain with a large(ish) deletion in an essential viral gene. This sort of mutation is easy to spot in the SARS-CoV-2 genome data, and because the genetic information has been removed, it makes the virus very unlikely to be able to mutate back into a dangerous strain. Ideally, the strain identified will have infected a number of other people in the local area too so we can know it is safe.

So while you do want to verify that the sequence is not also present in "serious" cases, you are prescreening by a factor that theoretically should correlate to severity. Whether you "need" to do additional testing depends on your assessment of base risk. If you assume that almost everyone is going to be infected with a powerful strain if you do nothing, doing your testing in live cases with a strain you suspect is mild might still be justified. Ideally (as quoted from Daniel) this "testing" might be mostly satisfied by just monitoring those already infected by the original carrier(s) with the same mild strain.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did they choose indiegogo over traditional medical research funding?

The source that wikipedia cites says the following: "However, research on DRACOs has entered the well-known “Valley of Death” in which a lack of funding prevents DRACOs, and many other promising new drugs, from being developed and advancing toward human medical trials. To progress DRACOs research it needs to be demonstrated against clinically relevant viruses (i.e; HSV). To that end an IndieGoGo campaign ( http://igg…

Basically there is funding for early research, and for drugs that are really close to release, but the years in between (the drudgery) aren't very interesting to investors so capital is hard to come by to keep projects alive.

An acquaintance is $600m into a new type of Malaria testing and his funding is slowing, but is frustrated because he feels he is closer then ever. Frankly im amazed he got this far, thats a lot of burn.

Basically funding for drug research is all screwy!

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#460

I don't think the mutations are the reason for asymptomatic cases. Coronaviruses mutate very slowly. More likely, viral load, immune system strength, overall age and the genetics of the person infected are what determines if the infection is fought off before any symptoms are shown

And anyways, the harsh lockdowns currently implemented are basically forcing the virus to evolve into being asymptomatic. Currently, anyone with even mild flu-like symptoms stays home

pardon my ignorance, but is that a good thing or a bad thing? (the first part)
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