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A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

sloanreview.mit.edu

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Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#121

Post by david_w »

amiga_500 wrote: post #113
david_w wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure. Communists gone from China by 2035. Latest. 15 years across multiple administrations across multiple nations. It's just like before WWII. Some people see the mortal danger and realize by hook or by crook something HAS to be done. Some people are suing for "peace in our time". Only one of these camps is right. Guess which one. Say what you want, this is something we DID learn from WWII. Know the signs and don't…

The USA won't even have most of its supply chain under domestic control by 2035. The response to the virus was typically disorganized and indicative of wider issues. The last 40 years have seen a huge slide in power and credibility, what is going to stop that?

I don't agree with any of your characterizations.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#122

Post by quickthrowman »

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #116
twelve40 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…

Antibiotics aren't actually useful against viruses. We are currently in roughly the place with antiviral drugs that we were a century ago with antibiotics: the first clinical and theoretical hints are there, and a few things have been tested and found to work in isolated cases, but there simply is no systematic, industrial-scale way to pump out (antiviral) pills or syrups that can be thrown at whatever new (viral) pa…

Antibiotics are useful for fighting secondary bacterial infections that occur as a result of a viral infection.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#123

Post by _curious_ »

throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

Having lived through, intimately observed, and now in reflecting on the 2008 situation - Id's say your assessment is fair. That same effect/outcome multiplied this time around, seems to be inline.

While the recovery may miraculously end up more evenly distributed (with Sanders out I don't see enough pressure/leverage) under current administration and potentially four more years, nothing is off limits and this one may in fact become much more concentrated than 2008.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#124

Post by arbitrary_name »

david_w wrote: post #102
meddlepal wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, this a whole new ballgame in terms of what kind of businesses are going to be viable. The restaurant and bar industry might be toast and that's going to have big social and cultural impacts.

Man I do not believe this. The restaurant and bar industry cater to the reckless youth segment. Seeing "nothing bad happened" to people you know who are less risk-averse than you is enough to coax people back into herding into bars and restaurants. We herded for a century before anything happened and those are clear memories everyone has, too. What is going to change is the world's attitude toward the Communist regim…

I agree with the first point regarding a low impact of risk aversion in younger demographics.

Your point on the consequences for the CCP, not so much. They have an iron grip on their people and information flows. COVID provides them with validation to tighten that grip. I think what will topple them will the be long run consequences of resource misallocation rather than anything their citizens can do. Their 'cost-to-control' is too low for civil unrest to be an issue, in my opinion.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#125

Post by david_w »

david_w wrote: post #108
NopeNotToday wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Culpability lies with China for covering it up Sure, China did some bad things and shares some blame. That said, we did figure out China was lying in January, but did nothing nothing for the next six weeks (besides an ineffective travel "ban"). We have some culpability as well.

Right but the culpability is 99.9999% with the virus. I don't blame Obama I don't blame Trump. I don't blame Congress. I don't blame Italy. I blame a virus. Our response to it, so far as it deviated from a hypothetical perfect 10, is not relevant. It's a virus.

Just for the record, every single time I make a post even mildly criticizing China in any thread, it gets downvoted almost immediately.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#126

Post by School-Cotton »

xwdv wrote: post #88
tmountain wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I appreciate your perspective, but regarding things not being that bad, it depends on your vantage point. I have a few friends with established restaurants in town. As you can imagine, this is pretty dire for them. They're looking at losing everything they've built up slowly over a matter of years being completely destroyed in the matter of a few months--with ripple effects to dozens of employees that are essentially…

It sucks for your friends yes, but to be honest most restaurants fail and the only thing notable about the present situation is many of them are failing all at once. It’s not like a restaurant failing and putting entire families out of business is some surprising event. I’m sure it happens everyday. You have to look at the other side, when your friends restaurants fail and move out, new ones will move in with the sam…

> most restaurants fail

I don't have the numbers but this doesn't seem to match my anecdotal experience. Yes, restaurants do fail but I really don't think "most" of the ones I have seen in various neighborhoods I lived in failed.

I haven't lived in Seattle for 4 years or Tucson for 7, but when I go back to those places, most of the restaurants I remember frequenting are still around.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#127

Post by commandlinefan »

twelve40 wrote: post #43
JackFr wrote: post #9

The points made are fine insofar as they go. At the same time, the current economic situation is, very literally, unprecedented. It has aspects of a war, a natural disaster and a secular recession. Economists should try to estimate its effects, but in this case their predictions need to be taken with an extra large grain of salt.

How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…

> How is it very literally unprecedented?

What's unprecedented is the reaction... some might say overreaction.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#128

Post by arbitrary_name »

Invictus0 wrote: post #61
xwdv wrote: post #54

IMO things aren’t that bad. Yes restaurants and some small businesses are suffering, but look, people are cooking at home more, spending time with family, being healthier. People don’t need cosmetics or new clothes or cars or gasoline, and some luxury flashy items take a hit because there’s no way to really flaunt your wealth inside your own home. People aren’t traveling as much, tourist hotspots that were getting tr…

> I hope the pandemic lasts long enough to make some of these things permanent. PEOPLE ARE DYING. This is A DISASTER. Have some fucking compassion, good grief.

People die every day. Malnutrition has killed more people this year than covid. Where's your perpetual handwringing for those in impoverished far off countries? Or are you just emotional because it's YOUR people dying right now?

Keep your myopic melodrama to yourself.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#129

Post by _curious_ »

It's a succinct and plausible set of positions held by the author, but I'm not sure this one holds up:

"The disruptions in face-to-face work will be a drag on economic efficiency, leading to slower growth in revenues, lower profit margins, and reduced cash flow."

Maybe I've been doing business remote/virtual for so long already that I see actual face-to-face as the economic inefficiency more often than not. Earlier, the author espouses the obvious benefits of being in person, but I think those have been outweighed by the trade-offs for many years already. What many will simply need to adapt to going forward is the type of communication differences required for successful remote/virtual/verbal interactions.

Quality listening skills and straight talk are more important than ever!

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#130

Post by alexilliamson »

throwaway_USD wrote: post #84

It seems people don't realize how much $6T is and the effects of that kind of money being injected into the economy. Consider the 2008 housing bubble and financial crisis which was ultimately corrected with two stimulus packages totaling less than $2T...that money turned the economy around, put the economy into the longest bull market in history, resulting in a record stock market and corporate profits. Now its not t…

It's amazing how the unemployment rate gets treated as gospel in the media. I never see the actual jobless rate reported anywhere. Why is that?

The incentive for politicians to prop themselves up with the unemployment rate is clear. But why does the media never push back? Does "jobless" data - that is ACTUAL unemployment- not exist?

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