111–120 of 322 posts
We could be about to see a massive re-pricing in goods & services, salaries, rent, commodities with disrupted supply chains, food, wipe out of businesses no longer viable, new business models suddenly viable Or not, but if not, why not?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Man I do not believe this. The restaurant and bar industry cater to the reckless youth segment. Seeing "nothing bad happened" to people you know who are less risk-averse than you is enough to coax people back into herding into bars and restaurants. We herded for a century before anything happened and those are clear memories everyone has, too. What is going to change is the world's attitude toward the Communist regim…
> that regime is slated for death Care to put a date to your prediction?
It's just like before WWII. Some people see the mortal danger and realize by hook or by crook something HAS to be done. Some people are suing for "peace in our time". Only one of these camps is right. Guess which one.
Say what you want, this is something we DID learn from WWII. Know the signs and don't kid yourself about them. However bad your situation is now, it will only get worse in the future.
Covid-19 onboarded the majority of the population in all nations to this little project. Have no doubt.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> that regime is slated for death Care to put a date to your prediction?
Sure. Communists gone from China by 2035. Latest. 15 years across multiple administrations across multiple nations. It's just like before WWII. Some people see the mortal danger and realize by hook or by crook something HAS to be done. Some people are suing for "peace in our time". Only one of these camps is right. Guess which one. Say what you want, this is something we DID learn from WWII. Know the signs and don't…
The response to the virus was typically disorganized and indicative of wider issues. The last 40 years have seen a huge slide in power and credibility, what is going to stop that?
From the article: "The first is that it overlooks the negative impacts on consumer sentiment and spending, which are likely to persist for many months, if not years. " Yeah, right. Citation needed. My to-buy list of pent-up demands grows longer by the hour.
They are not talking about electronics or haircuts. For example, many people have vowed never to step on a cruise ship after this and attending large scale events in person will probably give a lot of people anxiety for some time.
I think it's incorrect to blame the current depression entirely on Covid-19. Economists have been predicting a depression by the end of 2020 or 2021 for a while - on HN I remember lots of discussions around the inverted yield curve. There's been a tech bubble for the past couple of years, and covid was just a catalyst for this bubble popping.
The points made are fine insofar as they go. At the same time, the current economic situation is, very literally, unprecedented. It has aspects of a war, a natural disaster and a secular recession. Economists should try to estimate its effects, but in this case their predictions need to be taken with an extra large grain of salt.
How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…
IMO things aren’t that bad. Yes restaurants and some small businesses are suffering, but look, people are cooking at home more, spending time with family, being healthier. People don’t need cosmetics or new clothes or cars or gasoline, and some luxury flashy items take a hit because there’s no way to really flaunt your wealth inside your own home. People aren’t traveling as much, tourist hotspots that were getting tr…
> I hope the pandemic lasts long enough to make some of these things permanent. PEOPLE ARE DYING. This is A DISASTER. Have some fucking compassion, good grief.
The points made are fine insofar as they go. At the same time, the current economic situation is, very literally, unprecedented. It has aspects of a war, a natural disaster and a secular recession. Economists should try to estimate its effects, but in this case their predictions need to be taken with an extra large grain of salt.
It's not completely without precedent, in that the 1918 flu pandemic was only a century ago. We don't have a ton of good data, but some researchers are looking at its effects in the US: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/pandemic-... But I do agree 100% with taken current economic estimates with a huge brain of salt, as our economic machine is far different from the past.
If not, I don't think you can say it's comparable.
From the article: "The first is that it overlooks the negative impacts on consumer sentiment and spending, which are likely to persist for many months, if not years. " Yeah, right. Citation needed. My to-buy list of pent-up demands grows longer by the hour.
They are not talking about electronics or haircuts. For example, many people have vowed never to step on a cruise ship after this and attending large scale events in person will probably give a lot of people anxiety for some time.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly, this a whole new ballgame in terms of what kind of businesses are going to be viable. The restaurant and bar industry might be toast and that's going to have big social and cultural impacts.
Man I do not believe this. The restaurant and bar industry cater to the reckless youth segment. Seeing "nothing bad happened" to people you know who are less risk-averse than you is enough to coax people back into herding into bars and restaurants. We herded for a century before anything happened and those are clear memories everyone has, too. What is going to change is the world's attitude toward the Communist regim…