Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

sloanreview.mit.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 322 posts

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#61

Post by Invictus0 »

xwdv wrote: post #54

IMO things aren’t that bad. Yes restaurants and some small businesses are suffering, but look, people are cooking at home more, spending time with family, being healthier. People don’t need cosmetics or new clothes or cars or gasoline, and some luxury flashy items take a hit because there’s no way to really flaunt your wealth inside your own home. People aren’t traveling as much, tourist hotspots that were getting tr…

> I hope the pandemic lasts long enough to make some of these things permanent.

PEOPLE ARE DYING. This is A DISASTER. Have some fucking compassion, good grief.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#62

Post by amiga_500 »

coldcode wrote: post #3

While I agree that it will take longer (and wind up different looking) to full recovery, having governments and business plan for the next pandemic will not happen. Short sighted people do not waste time on long term thinking.

That is just in America, the rest of the western world will plan far better because short term profits for the rich are not the overriding factor.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#63

Post by mzarate06 »

rwmj wrote: post #5
frockington1 wrote: post #2

The articles states as fact there will be negative impacts on long term consumer sentiment and spending without really providing any evidence. Most Americans are about to receive a $1200 check and unemployment benefits that pay more than their job did for the next 6 months. I don't think consumer spending is going anywhere soon.

The markets - after a welcome and long overdue correction - are up a few percent, so people seem to be buying in on the expectation of things getting back to normal. Prices seem to be back to 2016/2017 levels. This doesn't indicate to me that people with money believe we're in for a great depression.

The markets are up much more than a mere few percent.

Going off closing lows, the SPY is up ~25% from it's ~223 close on 23 March. The Nasdaq Composite is up ~19%. That puts them back at mid-late 2019 prices, not 2016-2017 levels.

This all agrees w/your latter point - investors are already bullish again - but I wanted to add data points to supplement the market has recovered much faster than some people realize.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#64

Post by amiga_500 »

meddlepal wrote: post #34
tarr11 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not talking about electronics or haircuts. For example, many people have vowed never to step on a cruise ship after this and attending large scale events in person will probably give a lot of people anxiety for some time.

Heck even a crowded bar or restaurant is going to give people pause.

Pause? There is no way I'm taking my family to a crowded restaurant until either full scale frequent testing (with intra-region travel quarantine) proves it's gone or an effective vaccine is deployed at scale, or lastly if some medicine which means you get mild symptoms and no after-effects is developed.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#65

Post by rapind »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #41
sremani wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Global Pandemic is NOT A BLACK SWAN. As matter of FACT, it was predicted by Taleb and according to him it is a WHITE SWAN. The true problem here is the so called Risk "experts" do not understand Risk, and that is the core problem.

The CDC had a pandemic team, they were let go. California had a reserve of ventilators, which were liquidated due to “budget reasons”. The problem isn’t risk experts; the problem is that government representatives elected have no domain expertise nor leadership fortitude to put domain experts into the driver’s seat when the situation dictates. China, for all its failings, gets this right. Their leadership is more STE…

There's a populist war on expertise. Arguably justified when fake expertise is available for hire. Think big tobacco paying for studies (expertise) to say smoking doesn't cause lung cancer. When this becomes rampant, eventually there's a public trust issue.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#66

Post by smdz »

"Everyone" says and knows it is going to be bad economically. But thats typical behavior when problems are coming to an end. Is it so? I don't see how we are at the end of those unrealized problems.

Or may be we are looking at an upcoming false silver lining before the real economical problems show up.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#67

Post by fullshark »

JackFr wrote: post #9

The points made are fine insofar as they go. At the same time, the current economic situation is, very literally, unprecedented. It has aspects of a war, a natural disaster and a secular recession. Economists should try to estimate its effects, but in this case their predictions need to be taken with an extra large grain of salt.

These predictions are so vague as to be basically unfalsifiable, I'm not sure it matters.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#68

Post by twelve40 »

frosted-flakes wrote: post #55
twelve40 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it very literally unprecedented? Spanish flu had much deadlier properties, "work from home" wasn't even possible, there were no antibiotics and almost none of the modern med tech, yet there is no mention of a "1919 economic collapse". Death toll in the US was So I'd say it looks very much "precedented", and during the last precedent the situation was much much worse, and the world moved on just fine for anothe…

It also occurred during World War I. That changes the situation somewhat.

Changes how? I'd say being in WWI was much much worse, no? And yet you still don't hear about a great 1919 depression.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#69

Post by tmountain »

xwdv wrote: post #54

IMO things aren’t that bad. Yes restaurants and some small businesses are suffering, but look, people are cooking at home more, spending time with family, being healthier. People don’t need cosmetics or new clothes or cars or gasoline, and some luxury flashy items take a hit because there’s no way to really flaunt your wealth inside your own home. People aren’t traveling as much, tourist hotspots that were getting tr…

I appreciate your perspective, but regarding things not being that bad, it depends on your vantage point. I have a few friends with established restaurants in town. As you can imagine, this is pretty dire for them.

They're looking at losing everything they've built up slowly over a matter of years being completely destroyed in the matter of a few months--with ripple effects to dozens of employees that are essentially "family".

It's brutal.

I agree that there are a lot of silver linings, which you've outlined pretty well, but for some folks, it is REALLY bad.

Re: A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal

#70

Post by LeifCarrotson »

meddlepal wrote: post #34
tarr11 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not talking about electronics or haircuts. For example, many people have vowed never to step on a cruise ship after this and attending large scale events in person will probably give a lot of people anxiety for some time.

Heck even a crowded bar or restaurant is going to give people pause.

My mom is a nurse. One of her refrains when I was growing up was (and is) "Germs are real!"

People who previously didn't think anything of it will, for decades, be aware that if you're indoors and/or closer than six feet from a person who coughs, you will likely inhale airborne droplets that may contain viruses or bacteria from their lungs. I think this was known academically by some, and the risk was calculated and accepted by a few, but most people wouldn't have expected to inhale airborne droplets from someone they pass in a grocery store aisle.

Post reply on HN