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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#261

Post by danieltillett »

NyxWulf wrote: post #208
danieltillett wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really want to find every single person who has been infected with the mutant strain and find out how sick they got. If you find a mutant that infected 10,000 people and didn’t cause any serious illness then you have a pretty good idea it safe.

I think the point is that you have to sequence people in the hospital as well, otherwise you won't know if that particular strain is safe or not. If it is a rare strain, how will you know if it's safe? Seems like it would have to be a rare strain with thousands of cases and hospitalizations in that population are extremely rare. Sampling bias and other confounding factors would be a real problem in this search, at le…

You actually want to screen all people in the local area for the strain that may have it. If all the people have had a mild case and none of them are in hospital then you have something special.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#262

Post by dragonsh »

jfoster wrote: post #219
dragonsh wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well this is what many countries and scientists are already doing. It’s just not working as virus is unpredictable and it might infect some but not others. The best way to find a solution is still try to understand how it acts on different types of people and if they have underlying previous conditions what changes it does, this takes time and I believe that’s the reason there isn’t any cure except by chance in a sho…

Are they already doing that? Is there somewhere I can find the statistics broken out by strain? Or even a list of identifiers of the known strains? From what I've seen, it's been published in some news articles and such that there "might be" different strains. Haven't seen anything particularly solid yet.

Covid-19 is not mutating like other viruses, but it acts differently on different people, and very problematic for people with pre-existing conditions. Also in some cases again not proven it also infected heart muscles, now it’s not clear yet that it’s due to pneumonia or covid-19. In China they tried plasma from recovered patients and that also didn’t yield very good results. Also in some studies they find a correlation between BCG vaccine and low mortality (again not proven).

The issue with covid-19 is that it’s proving to be much harder to understand than other viruses in spite of not mutating like flu virus. Hopefully by more studies we can increase the chances of developing some cure or may be with so many efforts someone discover cure by chance.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#263

Post by danieltillett »

new299 wrote: post #253
danieltillett wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not going to be spreading the virus around so why would I be arrested? Actually once a “safe” strain was identified and could be tested for it would be impossible to stop it being spread by individuals on their own to those they know. As we have seen with the whole HCQ fiasco regulations have a habit of getting lowered once there is data, even poor data. If we contact trace everyone who has been infected with th…

Perhaps I’ve missed something in your argument then. I’d need to understand exactly how you are planning to promote the spread of the attenuated form. If you’re talking about a “sequencing driven” Pox party [1] then I suspect you will run into issues. Particularly if you were to say that the Pox party will infect you with an attenuated form of the virus and vaccinate. Both the diagnostic (sequencing or otherwise) and…

I am not planning on doing anything other than trying to look for the attenuated strain. How it is used is for others - what I am suggesting is once such a strain is found is it will be impossible to stop people spreading it around on their own.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#264

Post by rvnx »

hebrox wrote: post #227

Could we already start with this? There are almost no deaths in young people, so how about we send the youth to a Corona Summer Camp for a week or 3? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

How much % of young people end up in ICUs or hospital ? The numbers are always elusive about that.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#265

Post by danieltillett »

_-___________-_ wrote: post #238
danieltillett wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These IFR numbers you quote are also incorrect as there are many people infected who have not yet had time to die. The best estimate probably comes from South Korea (they seem to be picking up nearly all cases with their massive contact tracking and testing) where the death rate is at 1.8% and trending higher.

Then why not link to a study about the IFR in South Korea? My point is that the claim you make about the percentage of people who are infected that die is not supported at all by the article that the claim links to, which only discusses the percentage of confirmed cases that die.

Because the whole issue of IFR is irrelevant to my argument and the range provided is wide enough to cover all estimates.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#266

Post by exikyut »

IdoRA wrote: post #259

A naturally attenuated strain would still be regulated. In the US, 21 USC §321(g): > (1) The term "drug" means… (B) articles intended for use in the diagnosis, cure, mitigation, treatment, or prevention of disease in man or other animals; CBER would be the responsible center for the FDA. Other countries have analogous regulations. Could you come to market with a naturally attenuated strain? Yes. Would it take less ti…

Alternatively, if this approach actually works, all the countries in the world that can appropriately adapt their regulations will survive, and the ones that choose not to won't.

Natural selection versus bureaucracy!

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#267

Post by JohnJamesRambo »

I like your idea a lot. It seems that a 12 nucleotide insertion mutation is responsible for a lot of the Covid-19 virulence. If such a large mutation is possible, how would we prevent your loss of function asymptomatic strain from reverting its mutation in the wild? How big of a mutation are you envisioning? Is it impossible for it to be reverted in the wild or just unlikely?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#268

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg »

exikyut wrote: post #266
IdoRA wrote: post #259

A naturally attenuated strain would still be regulated. In the US, 21 USC §321(g): > (1) The term "drug" means… (B) articles intended for use in the diagnosis, cure, mitigation, treatment, or prevention of disease in man or other animals; CBER would be the responsible center for the FDA. Other countries have analogous regulations. Could you come to market with a naturally attenuated strain? Yes. Would it take less ti…

Alternatively, if this approach actually works, all the countries in the world that can appropriately adapt their regulations will survive, and the ones that choose not to won't. Natural selection versus bureaucracy!

It's the "figure out if it actually works" part that is going to take most of the time for any potential prophylactic option for COVID-19. The bureaucratic overhead in this particular case is not going to be the inner loop.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#269

Post by danieltillett »

IdoRA wrote: post #259

A naturally attenuated strain would still be regulated. In the US, 21 USC §321(g): > (1) The term "drug" means… (B) articles intended for use in the diagnosis, cure, mitigation, treatment, or prevention of disease in man or other animals; CBER would be the responsible center for the FDA. Other countries have analogous regulations. Could you come to market with a naturally attenuated strain? Yes. Would it take less ti…

There are plenty of shortcuts in medicine. Think how you would stop this strain from being spread by individuals once it was identified. This strain will spread no matter what the FDA says.

Personally I think the regulatory authorities would rapid approve it based on the epidemiology data collected in the process of finding the strain. The FDA has already shown that it can move faster than its usual glacial pace given sufficient motivation.

The much more important question is when are we going to start seriously looking for such a strain?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#270

Post by ed_balls »

cjbprime wrote: post #126
ed_balls wrote: post #82

I've been thinking about this a few days ago when I went into the wikipedia rabbit hole about vaccinations and inoculation. A few questions: - How about the dengue fever scenario? (Immunity to less pathogenic strain can cause more severe reaction with a different strain). Can we asses the risk somehow? > Apart from the time it will take to develop, trial, and mass produce a vaccine (12-18 months), it is unlikely that…

We just don't know. Either case (short immunity like the common cold, or permanent immunity) is possible.

It seem the permanent immunity is unlikely https://youtu.be/4EUZEtJHQhE?t=639
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