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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#151

Post by op00to »

Guthur wrote: post #99
coconut_crab wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I am not a professional, so what I write below might be wrong) Having more time to develop a vaccine or effective treatments is essential, it doesn't have to be herd immunity. Plus in countries where covid19 rate is low enough, social distancing can be helpful for finding and isolating clusters to suppress the epidemic.

Of course, there are two ways out of this, herd or vaccine. The above is a variation of herd that may result in less deaths. The real problem is that waiting until a vaccine is just not even remotely realistic for so many reasons that it's not even funny. We could end up causing more indirect deaths with social isolation than we could possibly imagine, worst case being a huge collapse in the economy results in a larg…

Do you have any evidence that social isolation will cause more deaths than an unchecked pandemic? That makes no sense.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#152

Post by akiselev »

tilolebo wrote: post #100
jbermudes wrote: post #12

I'm glad people are realizing that all this social distancing is merely a pause button on the virus. Once we press play on society, exponential growth will happen again and we will have effectively rolled back the clock until we reach herd immunity through things like the OP's suggestion. At least this next time we'll hopefully have more PPE.

It's not a pause button, it's a playback speed button that slows down the contamination. Remember #FlattenTheCurve. What is true is that it would take waaaay longer to reach herd immunity this way. Another thing that people usually get wrong is the her immunity concept: from what I understand, it doesn't mean we ALL need to be infected. We just need to be enough, so the virus can't spread anymore.

The whole idea of herd immunity in this context is fucking nonsense. No self-respecting epidemiologist would even bring it up this early into a pandemic.

Herd immunity is the last resort for the immunocompromised or unvaccinated, not the foundation for public health policy.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#153

Post by op00to »

foobarbecue wrote: post #132
Guthur wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, there are two ways out of this, herd or vaccine. The above is a variation of herd that may result in less deaths. The real problem is that waiting until a vaccine is just not even remotely realistic for so many reasons that it's not even funny. We could end up causing more indirect deaths with social isolation than we could possibly imagine, worst case being a huge collapse in the economy results in a larg…

Herd immunity generally depends on having a vaccine. https://www.vaccines.gov/basics/work/protection Are there any examples of humanity developing herd immunity without a vaccine?

Black Death?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#154

Post by op00to »

danieltillett wrote: post #8
AbrahamParangi wrote: post #6

The author should test this idea on himself and demonstrate skin in the game.

I am more than happy to be exposed to an attenuated SARS-CoV-2 strain, but first we have to find one. My idea is how we can find one.

I think it would be pretty easy for you to find a strain. Start licking subway poles, then see what happens! Just kidding. Stay safe. ;)

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#155

Post by ForHackernews »

danieltillett wrote: post #31
jka wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. I certainly get the sense from the article and your comments that you are well-informed. My suggestion is really one around building trust - it'd help to have others in the same scientific field confirm and/or question the approach.

This is exactly what I want to do. I want to collaborate with those in the position to go looking for one of these attenuated viruses.

This seems like a pretty good idea (good enough that certainly there must already be people working on it) so it seems like if you could find and contact them, maybe you could contribute to their efforts?

It just seems more practical than hail-mary posting on HN https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22810639

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#156

Post by danieltillett »

ignoramous wrote: post #139

This is genuis if it could be put to work. Many possible vaccines for covid-19 are discussed in this paper [0] which is surprisingly accessible. There's a table [1] that depicts categorization of vaccine candidates and it does mention attenuated virus as a possible solution, the one in development by Codagenix and The Serum Institute of India [2] expected in the second-quarter of 2022. 2022 seems to be an eternity aw…

I am not sure about the genius part, but it can be done. While a search for an attenuated virus might fail (there might not be one out there yet), it at least won’t take long or cost much to look. Let's get started.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#157

Post by Gupie »

danieltillett wrote: post #135
postingawayonhn wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's extremely important because it's a question a lot of people are going to be asking. You'll need a good answer as to why this approach should not be subject to similar regulations as vaccines otherwise this will go nowhere.

Is the FDA regulating the spread of the dangerous version? More seriously there is nothing for the FDA to regulate here. It is a natural virus spreading in a natural way.

How can you claim it would be spread in a natural way? The intention is to spread it deliberately.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#158

Post by drtillberg »

grey-area wrote: post #143
Taek wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd much rather live in a world where everyone is required to wear masks all the time than live in a world where we are all told to stay home all the time. I believe it's also well established that any measures taken to slow the spread of a new virus will always result in fewer total deaths, in that sense quarantining is much more effective than just being a pause button.

This is a false dichotomy. Masks or gloves as worn by ordinary people are nowhere near effective enough to mean lockdowns could end. They're very effective in clinical settings with proper ppe head to toe and procedures for taking them off outside the dirty ward, but there's no way most people can stick to those, nor keep their houses/shops clean enough. I believe it's also well established that any measures taken to…

We wouldn't insist that people 'stop breathing' to prevent the spread of coromaviris. It's only somewhat different to insist that we all stop living and working.

Masks and gloves, plus generally keeping 6ft apart and routinely testing and contact tracing/quarantining infected individuals... what's the effective rate there? 95%? The modern medical establishment would move heaven and Earth, and incur thousands of dollars per person to get that last 5%. Most of us routinely ignore them in this regard, with respect to our own personal health, as we live our daily lives.

There just isn't a lot of evidence for the case that the choice is shutting the economic or killing millions.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#160

Post by new299 »

You make this statement: "The most important thing to note is that such a virus would not be a vaccine from a regulatory perspective."

Can you provide any evidence to back up this statement? If you were to start intentionally infecting people with a (naturally) attenuated strain claiming that it will confer immunity I suspect authorities would request you get regulatory approval.

If you're approach does require regulatory approval. What advantage does your approach have over those currently in developement? Some of them are just bits of the virus (mRNA that codes for the spike protein) packaged with a delivery mechanism [1].

It's a plausible approach, that has been tested in animal studies. There are a number of other, similarly plausible vaccines entering human trials.

It is however deemed to be too high risk to just start giving the vaccine to large numbers of people. So the vaccine will have to go through (an accelerated) trial process. It will then likely be given to at risk groups (health care professionals), before becoming widely available. Most experts expect this to take at least 16 months (which would be a world record).

Your approach would have the same issues as are present with any other vaccine.

If regulatory authorities are willing to skip trials for your approach, then the same should apply to other vaccines under development.

[1] https://www.modernatx.com/modernas-work-potential-vaccine-ag...

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