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A (possible) solution to Covid-19

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Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#111

Post by logicchains »

sysbin wrote: post #69
logicchains wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I speculate young people wouldn't volunteer unless they have a health issue placing them in the high risk group. I suspect lots of young people would happily volunteer if it meant their life could return to normal. Heck, I'd bet even for the current strain, with a ~0.1% risk of death for young people, quite a few people would volunteer to get it if it meant they could get out of lockdown.

I'm not disagreeing with that opinion. I just haven't observed young adults taking the lockdown seriously. I personally work from home (as one of the privileged few being a programmer) and when I do go outside I take social distancing serious. My health in general isn't great although I'm not old (early 30s) and which is why I don't leave my apartment much anymore. I live in a college area and young adults are still…

>I live in a college area and young adults are still going over to each others apartments and without practicing social distancing when going out to buy groceries.

That's my point: the young adults don't want to comply with the social distancing, so if someone said "hey, if you let me infect you with this virus that has a 1/50,000 chance of killing you, you can no longer get/transmit the more dangerous strain so you don't have to social distance any more", a lot would take the offer.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#112

Post by danieltillett »

patall wrote: post #109

A huge problem I see with this is that already circulating coronaviruses cause immunities as short as 3 months. While the SARS virus seems to cause much longer immunity (same for MERS), this may be linked to the strong symptomes that people have, thus may be due to a stronger immune reaction. Asymptomatic cases and people with mild symptoms may therefore be immune only for a short time. If this is the case, any herd…

This is the exact problem my idea solves.

Please take some time to read through the whole proposal again. I know this sound snarky, but yours is a really common response that has been addressed.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#114

Post by baq »

danieltillett wrote: post #74
choeger wrote: post #61

Stupid question: if you only search people with mild or even asymptomatic cases, how does that even tell you something about the virus? Should you not also search in (many) severe cases for the candidate, to exclude it from the list of dangerous virii?

There are no stupid questions, just stupid politicians. We are looking for an attenuated strain and that will be found in people with a mild case. We could sequence all cases, but we would exclude any strain that puts someone in hospital so it is a waste of resources to sequence viruses from people in hospital. From a practical perspective it is better to concentrate on people with only mild cases.

> There are no stupid questions, just stupid politicians.

politicians aren't stupid, they just play a different game and it looks really dumb from the outside. for them, their moves make sense, they're pros at it.

anyway, you've done very well to find yourself on the top 30 of HN. the smarter press reads this directly. the less smart press reads it a few days later after it spreads through the net via reddits, facebooks, etc. hopefully it's a matter of time a good headline will find its way to pair of eyes in the right place at the right time.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#115

Post by geomark »

pezo1919 wrote: post #96
geomark wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding (not an expert) is that there is a difference depending how much of an initial dose of the virus you get. If it is very small then your immune system has more time to respond before the virus replicates to dangerously large numbers, whereas if your initial dose is large then you are starting with a large number of virus particles that replicate too fast for your immune system to respond.

Yeah I think it makes a lot of difference. See doctors at hospitals... even youngs pass out. (I think in a higher rate than usual.)

Yes, that is the discussion I have heard, that healthcare workers without proper PPE get larger doses than those with the right gear and are more likely to fall ill. Same effect applies to the average person in public when exposed to an infected person who may not be showing systems - even imperfect PPE reduces their initial dose and increases their odds of having a less severe infection.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#116

Post by postingawayonhn »

sysbin wrote: post #54

In theory the idea would work. People being cooperative enough is where I'm skeptical. I assume anyone in the high risk group would volunteer to receive the less-dangerous strain and when the incentive of lowering risk of death is obvious. I speculate young people wouldn't volunteer unless they have a health issue placing them in the high risk group.

Would anyone have a choice? Surely once a few people are infected it will start spreading on its own. Even if people who are infected were instructed to isolate there will be a certain level of non-compliance, particularly at scale.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#117

Post by danieltillett »

andai wrote: post #101
danieltillett wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes this is true. For the purpose of my idea it doesn’t matter if the person is asymptomatic or they just have a mild case. What is important is the strain identified doesn’t put people in hospital.

The key here is that the vulnerable population needs to tolerate it, too.

Technically they don’t provided we can get the herd immunity up to a decent level in the rest of the population.

While it would be a good idea if the mutated strain was no more dangerous than a common cold coronavirus, we could drive the dangerous strains to extinction without having to infect the vulnerable.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#118

Post by jopsen »

Lordarminius wrote: post #83
danieltillett wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case.

>What we really want is a strain that has infected a whole lot of people and all of them have had a mild case How about 10 to 50 million ? I live in Nigeria. Between December and late February, many people in Nigeria and Ghana report experiencing symptoms similar to those that could be caused moderate COVID-19 infection. These included, fever, diarhoea, cough, sore throat, malaise. Many physicians and scientists I kn…

The median age in Nigeria is 18.4 years, while in Italy it's 45.5 years.

Nigeria might have more immunocompromised people due to AIDS. But is there any reliable accounting of deaths, much less the reason?

In any case, I wouldn't be surprised if age and lack of accounting is why you don't see a problem in Nigeria.

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_...

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#120

Post by danieltillett »

RabbitmqGuy wrote: post #56
danieltillett wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a virologist - well I have published many papers in this area. I have a PhD in molecular microbiology and have been a tenured professor (I now work in the biotech sector). This is not intended to be a scientific paper, but a layman’s summary of the idea so non-technical people can understand the idea. It is not risky to go looking for a naturally attenuated virus. This is the first step that needs to happen.

I think it would help to include your bio/qualifications in the blogpost.

Done.
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