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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#121

Post by option »

swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

I think we should also view lockdown costs in life time lost. Hundreds of millions of people now lost a month or more of their lives

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#122

Post by pmorici »

blhack wrote: post #43
andbberger wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US's response could not be described as anything even approaching competent. This is still just getting started. Let's check back in a few months and see how this comment has aged...

What should the US have done that other countries are doing? We closed travel early, we started closing businesses early, and we hold daily press conferences with multiple medical and financial experts that are directly informing the entire population of what measures they should be taking. edit: it seems like the general response to "what should we have done" is "the federal government should have shut down travel/b…

Testing, if they had spun up testing in January and mandated testing of every International traveler that had been to a country with an outbreak in the past two weeks they probably could ahve avoided a total shut down like we have now. The bungled testing is the original sin that got us to where we are now. The ventilator thing is a bit of a side show because by time you have a problem big enough to need a ton of ventilators it is already out of control.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#123

Post by gruez »

jjnoakes wrote: post #100
TechBro8615 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This line of reasoning assumes that containment is feasible at this point. Is it? Or will everyone get the virus eventually? One ironic downside of “flattening the curve” is that it makes it longer. So, barring a vaccine or effective therapeutic treatment, we will all get the virus eventually (but in an orderly fashion, which is good for the health system), and that 75 million deaths will become a reality. Note that’…

I don't think this is true, is it? Most mathematical models I've seen definitely have a much lower number of total infected when the curve is flattened significantly.

You're right. Mortality for the virus would significantly increase if emergency rooms are overcrowded. No beds/ventilators = patients that would have survived dying. Last I've heard, around 15% of infected need to be hospitalized.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#124

Post by lostlogin »

jjnoakes wrote: post #100
TechBro8615 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This line of reasoning assumes that containment is feasible at this point. Is it? Or will everyone get the virus eventually? One ironic downside of “flattening the curve” is that it makes it longer. So, barring a vaccine or effective therapeutic treatment, we will all get the virus eventually (but in an orderly fashion, which is good for the health system), and that 75 million deaths will become a reality. Note that’…

I don't think this is true, is it? Most mathematical models I've seen definitely have a much lower number of total infected when the curve is flattened significantly.

Here in New Zealand we are hoping you are correct and seeing signs that you are. It seems odd to link to reddit graphs - but they are quite good and are up to date.

https://i.redd.it/a5gqmi5q5qr41.png

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#125

Post by NomDePlum »

hnaccy wrote: post #114
NomDePlum wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Citation please. That has certainly not been true of China, S.Korea, NZ, Germany, Australia or other countries that have successfully followed a suppression strategy.

Citation for what? Taiwan has similar population as Australia, is higher density than Sydney AUS, and has a fraction of the cases and deaths. They didn't close everything down they did targeted tracking/testing and isolation of individuals, mandatory masks on transit, fever checks in public etc.

Ok, so not just masks.

I don't know Taiwan's details but it sounds like they followed a test and trace strategy which is vastly different.

Thanks for clarifying.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#126

Post by smoovb »

swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

Covid-19 fallout is also saving lives with regards to traffic deaths and air pollution.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#127

Post by NomDePlum »

6nf wrote: post #119
NomDePlum wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Citation please. That has certainly not been true of China, S.Korea, NZ, Germany, Australia or other countries that have successfully followed a suppression strategy.

Sorry you are misinformed.

That's broadly true I'm sure.

In this context about anything in particular?

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#128

Post by lostlogin »

herval wrote: post #98
swsieber wrote: post #32

At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc. I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over…

There’s evidence the lockdowns are actually REDUCING other deaths, such as from car accidents, air pollution or violent crimes: https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities... https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/03/15/2024248/will-corona...

I wonder how that works? Those at risk of death from air pollution are surely in a risk group that wouldn’t do well with covid.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#129

Post by peteretep »

ardit33 wrote: post #69
peteretep wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My wild-ass-guess is that many companies can go into hibernation of some type. Furlough enough staff, take some government aid, stop wearing out tools, stop consuming raw materials. If you're a car manufacturer, for example, sure you have _some_ costs rights now with production lines stopped, but just how much?

There is your answer: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/volkswagen-is-burning-over-%... VW, is burning 2bill a month in cash, just by sitting idle.... Furloughing can save maybe %20 of the costs. A lot of the fixed recurring costs (costs and obligations that keep going even if you are not producing anything) make at least 30% of the producing value.... So, just for VW, if it sits idle for 6 months it will cost 12 Billi…

Your article is 2 weeks old, since which VW have furloughed many staff (also worth noting it's $2bn per _week_). Where do you get your minimum baseline on staff cuts only saving 20% from?

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#130

Post by TechBro8615 »

Retric wrote: post #45
0xff00ffee wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason why Trump went from "its a democratic hoax" to "100k-200k dead" was literally the Overton Window. Pick the biggest, most unlikely number, get everyone used to that, and deploy the puffery when it doesn't happen. Markets are responding to that. It was a pretty good move because that argument co-opted the opposition who was claiming a million or more would die. That was BS, and the administration's position…

What’s so strange to me is how much trust is being placed in these test results. Across the country doctors are telling people they can’t test people so stay home in self quarantine until you have difficulty breathing. Consider, 1/2 of all tests in New Jersey have been positive, nationwide it’s 1/4th for a disease that shares many symptoms with the flu. While the official infection rate might have more or less stabil…

I don’t understand the obsession with testing. Ok, if we are doing random samples or antibody tests, then I agree it’s important so we can understand the true prevalence and mortality rate. But that’s not what we are doing right now.

Otherwise, it just seems like a political exercise to boost the numbers and cause panic. If you’re symptomatic, is the best course of action really to leave your house for a test? It seems like it would be better to call the hospital and let them know your condition (so they can estimate upcoming hospitalizations). Then, stay at home and only go to the hospital when your symptoms worsen. Get tested when you go to the hospital.

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