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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

111–120 of 227 posts

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US's response could not be described as anything even approaching competent. This is still just getting started. Let's check back in a few months and see how this comment has aged...

This is an emotionally charged political comment. If you only watch CNN and read the NYT, you might think this. But if you look at the curve, and per-capita death numbers, the US seems to be doing a good job managing the crisis relative to its size. Has anyone in the US died because they didn’t have a ventilator? Not that I’m aware of. Washington State is already on the downslope. The history books will be very kind…

If the US had does as well as South Korea it would have 1,300 deaths and ~200 new infections per day. Instead we have 10x as many deaths per capita and at least 150x as many new infections per capita today.

50m people, 208 deaths, 27 new infections yesterday. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S...

330m people, 14,696 deaths (cdc), 32,039 new infections yesterday: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t...

They are a poorer country with a higher population density, yet somehow we failed.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Consensus from almost all countries is that you need to quarantine and shut down the economy in order to beat this. Those that believed that they could get around this with herd immunity are either paying a huge price (UK) or about to (Sweden). And those politicians that took hard measures actually have been rewarded (Australia) and those that didn't punished (UK, US).

But when do you open up again? We can't keep the lockdown until there are no cases.

If you use China as a guide they were shut for ~8 weeks and then opened up slowly over the course of a month.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an emotionally charged political comment. If you only watch CNN and read the NYT, you might think this. But if you look at the curve, and per-capita death numbers, the US seems to be doing a good job managing the crisis relative to its size. Has anyone in the US died because they didn’t have a ventilator? Not that I’m aware of. Washington State is already on the downslope. The history books will be very kind…

Yes indeed yours is an emotionally charged political comment, thanks for prefacing it with the warning. NY has started splitting ventilators.

The implication of your assertions is that the market is irrational right now. You could make a lot of money buying some puts in July.

(And I hoped you’d appreciate the ambiguity in the opening sentence :-) Ultimately we’re all in this together and we all want what’s best for the country and world.)

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#114
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan seems to have done it. Compare NYC and Taipai public transit during virus it's stark: https://i.redd.it/ufezdm2hjul41.jpg https://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/commute...

Citation please. That has certainly not been true of China, S.Korea, NZ, Germany, Australia or other countries that have successfully followed a suppression strategy.

Citation for what?

Taiwan has similar population as Australia, is higher density than Sydney AUS, and has a fraction of the cases and deaths. They didn't close everything down they did targeted tracking/testing and isolation of individuals, mandatory masks on transit, fever checks in public etc.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you want to speculate on this? All evidence is strongly against what you are proposing. It would without doubt lead to more deaths. Why would anyone even consider the course of action you are proposing? I've already had people close to me die. You should think some more and be able to provide a reasoned argument or be quiet until you can on this.

Universal mask wearing is part of the approach they have taken in South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore and it seems to have largely worked in those places. The whole "masks don't work" line being pushed by the US government and the media seems to be about keeping people from buying masks that are needed in the hospitals. In the process they are sort of lying to people about the effectiveness of mask wearing as a piece…

Only with other controls. It's ridiculous and will certainly lead to more deaths to suggest that only wearing certain types of masks is in any way a valid solution of any type.

This sort of misdirected conversation will kill people. Please stop it. It is highly irresponsible.

If you disagree please cite a credible source.

Please do not include anything relating to any of Trump's briefing as those are all discredited and fake news.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#116
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What should the US have done that other countries are doing? We closed travel early, we started closing businesses early, and we hold daily press conferences with multiple medical and financial experts that are directly informing the entire population of what measures they should be taking. edit: it seems like the general response to "what should we have done" is "the federal government should have shut down travel/b…

The federal government should have enacted stay at home measures. By leaving it up to the states, it's been bungled and the covid outbreak is lasting longer and killing more people. This leads to stay at home needing extensions and a further drain on the economy.

I really think martial law at the federal level would have been the end of our democracy. I don’t think it’s a good trade off. The current measures aren’t doing so bad in the realm of possible outcomes.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#117
post #15
post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

A lot of people covering heavy short positions.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#119
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan seems to have done it. Compare NYC and Taipai public transit during virus it's stark: https://i.redd.it/ufezdm2hjul41.jpg https://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/commute...

Citation please. That has certainly not been true of China, S.Korea, NZ, Germany, Australia or other countries that have successfully followed a suppression strategy.

Sorry you are misinformed.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#120
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What should the US have done that other countries are doing? We closed travel early, we started closing businesses early, and we hold daily press conferences with multiple medical and financial experts that are directly informing the entire population of what measures they should be taking. edit: it seems like the general response to "what should we have done" is "the federal government should have shut down travel/b…

We still haven't really closed travel: even the source of the biggest current outbreak, NYC, still has airports operating! And not only for medical flights... you can just buy yourself a plane ticket from NYC to Miami if you want to visit. The first significant US outbreak was in Washington state in February, and there were no real travel-restriction measures to/from the Seattle area back then either, which is part o…

> We were also quite late on shutting down businesses

Hell, there are still eight states that haven't, per the map at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay....

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