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Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

bbc.co.uk

31–40 of 227 posts

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#31
post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

There is always lots of volatility at a bottom. The stock market thought that the Great Depression was over quickly also. At the end of the day, either the market is right or wrong.

How can the market be wrong?! The market is the market.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#32
At what point does fallout from trying to avoid covid-19 deaths cause more deaths than covid-19. We're talking domestic violence, starvation abroad (due to local hoarding, which has begun), and actual crop failure (due to a shortage of transient labor). There's also suicide, depression, etc.

I'm not even saying let up on all the social distancing measures. I think social distancing measures are good, but perhaps over the top. Nowhere have I seen a discussion of where to stop with the measures because of diminishing returns and increasingly negative economic (and indirect human life loss) impact.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#33
post #27
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

The increase in the last two weeks is because it's becoming obvious that: 1) The US's response to this was competent. 2) The measures put in place are working. 3) The projections are improving substantially . 4) The time horizon is shrinking. 5) We are starting to understand how to treat this. (+ "in the us"). Two weeks ago we were looking at places like Italy, and extrapolating that the US could see deaths in the mi…

The US's response could not be described as anything even approaching competent. This is still just getting started.

Let's check back in a few months and see how this comment has aged...

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#35
post #27
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

The increase in the last two weeks is because it's becoming obvious that: 1) The US's response to this was competent. 2) The measures put in place are working. 3) The projections are improving substantially . 4) The time horizon is shrinking. 5) We are starting to understand how to treat this. (+ "in the us"). Two weeks ago we were looking at places like Italy, and extrapolating that the US could see deaths in the mi…

The reason why Trump went from "its a democratic hoax" to "100k-200k dead" was literally the Overton Window. Pick the biggest, most unlikely number, get everyone used to that, and deploy the puffery when it doesn't happen. Markets are responding to that. It was a pretty good move because that argument co-opted the opposition who was claiming a million or more would die. That was BS, and the administration's position calls them on it and puts them in a position of declaring a win because the unreasonable number is... unreasonable. But as for the market? This is all a game.

EDIT: My post will probably age-like-milk when we're still in lockdown in November with 300k dead and we all have long hair and are wiping our butts with the lawn like sick dogs.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#36
post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

Look at the VIX (volatility index), as long as it remains elevated there is fear in the market that further volatility is expected.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#37
post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

The stock market isn't the economy. It's related to the economy, but it's not a good measure of how the economy as whole is doing, nor does it say anything about how well the average person benefits from the economy.

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#38
post #15
post #2

And yet the stock market is already recovering. I guess "worst crisis since Great Depression" has been priced in?

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

My wild-ass-guess is that many companies can go into hibernation of some type. Furlough enough staff, take some government aid, stop wearing out tools, stop consuming raw materials. If you're a car manufacturer, for example, sure you have _some_ costs rights now with production lines stopped, but just how much?

Re: Worst economic crisis since 1930s depression, IMF says

#40
post #27
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The increase we’ve seen in the last two weeks make zero sense to me. It’s almost making me lose trust in the market as I feel like it’s rigged. We’re in a complete state of unknown, nobody knows when this will be over, unemployment raises like crazy, the US now realizes that coronavirus is hitting them the hardest...

The increase in the last two weeks is because it's becoming obvious that: 1) The US's response to this was competent. 2) The measures put in place are working. 3) The projections are improving substantially . 4) The time horizon is shrinking. 5) We are starting to understand how to treat this. (+ "in the us"). Two weeks ago we were looking at places like Italy, and extrapolating that the US could see deaths in the mi…

Yes, if you only just assume that markets are perfect and information is symmetrical.
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