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I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

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Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#61

Post by Consultant32452 »

aluminussoma wrote: post #38

This brings back so many memories. I graduated with a Comp Sci degree from a well-regarded university. I had friends who graduated a year earlier return to school for a different degree because there was just nothing available with a degree in CS. So demoralizing. I graduated a year later and took a job making a little over minimum wage. At that time, the most influential executives at my workplaces said software eng…

I'm pushing 40, graduated high school in 2000. I heard a lot of the same "wisdom." For some reason I just really wanted to be a software developer so I stuck with it even though the dot com bubble was in full catastrophe mode. I'm glad I did, but I can't claim magic wisdom. I don't know how kids are supposed to get good life/career advice. I surely didn't.

Perhaps the only thing I can reasonably suggest is that people create a "skill stack" instead of a skill. I'm a good coder, but coding is probably among my least economically valuable skills. My most valuable skill, by far, is communication. I can explain technical things to non-technical people and do so in a way that doesn't make them feel dumb. Part of the key there is I know they're not dumb. That wins you a lot of favors. My second most valuable skill is having a basic understanding of economics/business, how incentives work, how business decisions are made, etc. This helps me anticipate the needs of others at work and help solve their real problems which they may not even see clearly themselves.

If the stats offer any credibility... I work from home full time and have for nearly a decade. I've got 2 concurrent contracts going on right now. I'm expecting to make >$300k this year. I live in a 2nd tier city with a low cost of living, you've heard of it but it's not NY/LA/etc. I've never even applied to a FAANG type place.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#62

Post by rswail »

taurath wrote: post #17

What’s the basis for this recession being dotcom level for tech and engineers broadly?

It's likely to be dotcom level+ for all industries. At this point, casual and low level employees have been laid off, businesses are conserving cash and negotiating with their lenders.

This is not a financial recession, its a completely different beast. We are in uncharted waters of a connected global economy being affected globally by the pandemic.

The unemployment numbers are at least 10 million in the last 2 months for the US. Similar proportional numbers are applicable in all economies.

This is likely to continue for the next 6 months and is likely to have recurring volatility as areas relax or increase social distancing to protect life and maintain the health system.

Assuming best case of a vaccine being available for general use this time next year, it will take 3-6 months to roll out before things are back to "normal". So that's not until Q3 2021 at best.

In the meantime, we can hopefully have palliative and curative treatments for those infected and, with luck, the virus doesn't mutate sufficiently to cause lack of immunity to those who have survived infection.

We're about to test out MMT vs current supply side vs (neo-)Kensyian macroeconomics. World trade was already affected by the stupid and misguided US instigated tariff barriers.

In addition, we have to deal with the existing US mal-administration and the volatility of an election with all of the ridiculous nature of the way US states conduct their election process.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#63

Post by andarleen »

I like this kind of articles. I graduated during the 2008 crash and thrived as a programmer. It is probably because i spent most of my youth on IRC learning about all sorts of topics, mostly web related, while others waited for knowledge to be handed down by professors. If you are passionate you are likely to gain deep knowledge about your topic of interest. Deep knowledge makes you highly desirable for most employers. Anyone sitting out there anxious about what may be, now is the time to sink deep into your domain and become better at it.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#64

Post by kccqzy »

adtac wrote: post #2

In the age of RSUs, graduating in the middle of a recession is financially incredible IF you managed to get the job before all the hiring freezes AND it is at one of the publicly traded big N companies with good trade volume. Your RSU price is lower, you get more stock units for the same dollar amount at the time of joining in your initial grant (arguably much more important than refreshers). I have a friend who rece…

This might be off topic but why is the initial grant much more important than refreshers?

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#65

Post by dmoy »

adtac wrote: post #57
foota wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't the favorable tax treatment only on the appreciation from the vest price?

Ah I'm not too sure. That might be the case.

RSU is taxed at vest, exactly like cash bonus for tax purposes. If you sell it immediately, it's really exactly like cash.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#66

Post by jlmorton »

quickthrower2 wrote: post #32
goldenchrome wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not that financially incredible. That's the price that MSFT was at less than a year ago.

Glad someone else noticed this. We are yet to have a crash from the coronavirus pandemic. You'd need another compound 50% off before I call it a crash.

Indeed, we're currently somewhat above the nadir in 2018 when we were all worried about the effects of 10-25% tariffs on $250 billion of US imports of Chinese products.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I am definitely not feeling as confident in the mid-term, or even long-term outlook as I was then in 2018.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#68

Post by adjkant »

sysbin wrote: post #54
adjkant wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally I'm still getting lots of recruiter spam from these types of companies on Linkedin and my current company that offers a good deal of RSU's is still hiring. It's not everywhere but in this particular recession and within those offers already offering lots of high value RSU's I suspect hiring is not slowing by a ton.

Recruitment spamming isn't useful for accessing hiring rate. Recruiters are always building their database of who is out there and gathering information.

I mean building your database via "I'd like to connect" message is one thing, getting specific job descriptions + being asked to start the recruitment process is a bit farther than that. I'm getting about the same ratio of type so far the past month. I'm not saying it's 1 to 1 but these companies are at least still actively hiring, and I have no reason to doubt that based on my company doing the same.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#69

Post by foghornleghorn »

kccqzy wrote: post #64
adtac wrote: post #2

In the age of RSUs, graduating in the middle of a recession is financially incredible IF you managed to get the job before all the hiring freezes AND it is at one of the publicly traded big N companies with good trade volume. Your RSU price is lower, you get more stock units for the same dollar amount at the time of joining in your initial grant (arguably much more important than refreshers). I have a friend who rece…

This might be off topic but why is the initial grant much more important than refreshers?

most rank and file get next to nothing for refreshers.

Re: I graduated into the dot com bust as a programmer and made it – you will too

#70

Post by fzeroracer »

I mean I understand where he's coming from, but this is peak survivorship bias. No, not everyone makes it. People can't get jobs, they can't pay rent and people will suffer and some will die as a result. That's a fact of how recessions go, and I think papering it over with 'everything will be OK' just further normalizes the boom/bust cycle and all of the damage it causes to working individuals.
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